We define what it means for a joint probability distribution to be compatible with aset of independent causal mechanisms, at a qualitative level--or, more precisely with a directed hypergraph $\mathcal A$, which is the qualitative structure of a probabilistic dependency graph (PDG). When A represents a qualitative Bayesian network, QIM-compatibility with $\mathcal A$ reduces to satisfying the appropriate conditional independencies. But giving semantics to hypergraphs using QIM-compatibility lets us do much more. For one thing, we can capture functional dependencies. For another, we can capture important aspects of causality using compatibility: we can use compatibility to understand cyclic causal graphs, and to demonstrate structural compatibility, we must essentially produce a causal model. Finally, compatibility has deep connections to information theory. Applying compatibility to cyclic structures helps to clarify a longstanding conceptual issue in information theory.

Transduction is a powerful paradigm that leverages the structure of unlabeled data to boost predictive accuracy. We present TransCLIP, a novel and computationally efficient transductive approach designed for Vision-Language Models (VLMs). TransCLIP is applicable as a plug-and-play module on top of popular inductive zero-and few-shot models, consistently improving their performances. Our new objective function can be viewed as a regularized maximum-likelihood estimation, constrained by a KL divergence penalty that integrates the text-encoder knowledge and guides the transductive learning process. We further derive an iterative Block Majorize-Minimize (BMM) procedure for optimizing our objective, with guaranteed convergence and decoupled sample-assignment updates, yielding computationally efficient transduction for large-scale datasets. We report comprehensive evaluations, comparisons, and ablation studies that demonstrate: (i) Transduction can greatly enhance the generalization capabilities of inductive pretrained zero-and few-shot VLMs; (ii) TransCLIP substantially outperforms standard transductive few-shot learning methods relying solely on vision features, notably due to the KL-based language constraint.

Most applications of machine learning to classification assume a closed set of balanced classes. This is at odds with the real world, where class occurrence statistics often follow a long-tailed power-law distribution and it is unlikely that all classes are seen in a single sample. Nonparametric Bayesian models naturally capture this phenomenon, but have significant practical barriers to widespread adoption, namely implementation complexity and computational inefficiency. To address this, we present a method for extracting the inductive bias from a nonparametric Bayesian model and transferring it to an artificial neural network. By simulating data with a nonparametric Bayesian prior, we can metalearn a sequence model that performs inference over an unlimited set of classes. After training, this neural circuit has distilled the corresponding inductive bias and can successfully perform sequential inference over an open set of classes. Our experimental results show that the metalearned neural circuit achieves comparable or better performance than particle filter-based methods for inference in these models while being faster and simpler to use than methods that explicitly incorporate Bayesian nonparametric inference.

Unexpected stimuli induce error or surprise signals in the brain. The theory of predictive coding promises to explain these observations in terms of Bayesian inference by suggesting that the cortex implements variational inference in a probabilistic graphical model. However, when applied to machine learning tasks, this family of algorithms has yet to perform on par with other variational approaches in high-dimensional, structured inference problems. To address this, we introduce a novel predictive coding algorithm for structured generative models, that we call divide-and-conquer predictive coding (DCPC); it differs from other formulations of predictive coding, as it respects the correlation structure of the generative model and provably performs maximum-likelihood updates of model parameters, all without sacrificing biological plausibility. Empirically, DCPC achieves better numerical performance than competing algorithms and provides accurate inference in a number of problems not previously addressed with predictive coding. We provide an open implementation of DCPC in Pyro on Github.

Numerous studies have demonstrated that the cognitive processes of the human brain can be modeled using the Bayesian theorem for probabilistic inference of the external world. Spiking neural networks (SNNs), capable of performing Bayesian computation with greater physiological interpretability, offer a novel approach to distributed information processing in the cortex. However, applying these models to real-world scenarios to harness the advantages of brain-like computation remains a challenge. Recently, bio-inspired sensors with high dynamic range and ultra-high temporal resolution have been widely used in extreme vision scenarios. Event streams, generated by various types of motion, represent spatiotemporal data.

Recently developed quasi-Bayesian (QB) methods \cite{fong2023martingale} proposed a stimulating change of paradigm in Bayesian computation by directly constructing the Bayesian predictive distribution through recursion, removing the need for expensive computations involved in sampling the Bayesian posterior distribution. This has proved to be data-efficient for univariate predictions, however, existing constructions for higher dimensional densities are only possible by relying on restrictive assumptions on the model's multivariate structure. Here, we propose a wholly different approach to extend Quasi-Bayesian prediction to high dimensions through the use of Sklar's theorem, by decomposing the predictive distribution into one-dimensional predictive marginals and a high-dimensional copula. We use the efficient recursive QB construction for the one-dimensional marginals and model the dependence using highly expressive vine copulas. Further, we tune hyperparameters using robust divergences (eg.

Data point selection (DPS) is becoming a critical topic in deep learning due to the ease of acquiring uncurated training data compared to the difficulty of obtaining curated or processed data. Existing approaches to DPS are predominantly based on a bi-level optimisation (BLO) formulation, which is demanding in terms of memory and computation, and exhibits some theoretical defects regarding minibatches.Thus, we propose a novel Bayesian approach to DPS. We view the DPS problem as posterior inference in a novel Bayesian model where the posterior distributions of the instance-wise weights and the main neural network parameters are inferred under a reasonable prior and likelihood model.We employ stochastic gradient Langevin MCMC sampling to learn the main network and instance-wise weights jointly, ensuring convergence even with minibatches. Our update equation is comparable to the widely used SGD and much more efficient than existing BLO-based methods. Through controlled experiments in both the vision and language domains, we present the proof-of-concept. Additionally, we demonstrate that our method scales effectively to large language models and facilitates automated per-task optimization for instruction fine-tuning datasets.

Bayesian methods lie at the heart of modern data science and provide a powerful scaffolding for estimation in data-constrained settings and principled quantification and propagation of uncertainty. Yet in many real-world use cases where these methods are deployed, there is a natural need to preserve the privacy of the individuals whose data is being scrutinized. While a number of works have attempted to approach the problem of differentially private Bayesian estimation through either reasoning about the inherent privacy of the posterior distribution or privatizing off-the-shelf Bayesian methods, these works generally do not come with rigorous utility guarantees beyond low-dimensional settings. In fact, even for the prototypical tasks of Gaussian mean estimation and linear regression, it was unknown how close one could get to the Bayes-optimal error with a private algorithm, even in the simplest case where the unknown parameter comes from a Gaussian prior. In this work, we give the first efficient algorithms for both of these problems that achieve mean-squared error $(1+o(1))\mathrm{OPT}$ and additionally show that both tasks exhibit an intriguing computational-statistical gap. For Bayesian mean estimation, we prove that the excess risk achieved by our method is optimal among all efficient algorithms within the low-degree framework, yet is provably worse than what is achievable by an exponential-time algorithm. For linear regression, we prove a qualitatively similar lower bound. Our algorithms draw upon the privacy-to-robustness framework of arXiv:2212.05015, but with the curious twist that to achieve private Bayes-optimal estimation, we need to design sum-of-squares-based robust estimators for inherently non-robust objects like the empirical mean and OLS estimator. Along the way we also add to the sum-of-squares toolkit a new kind of constraint based on short-flat decompositions.

We present a complete theoretical characterization of Latent Posterior Factors (LPF), a principled framework for aggregating multiple heterogeneous evidence items in probabilistic prediction tasks. Multi-evidence reasoning arises pervasively in high-stakes domains including healthcare diagnosis, financial risk assessment, legal case analysis, and regulatory compliance, yet existing approaches either lack formal guarantees or fail to handle multi-evidence scenarios architecturally. LPF encodes each evidence item into a Gaussian latent posterior via a variational autoencoder, converting posteriors to soft factors through Monte Carlo marginalization, and aggregating factors via exact Sum-Product Network inference (LPF-SPN) or a learned neural aggregator (LPF-Learned). We prove seven formal guarantees spanning the key desiderata for trustworthy AI: Calibration Preservation (ECE <= epsilon + C/sqrt(K_eff)); Monte Carlo Error decaying as O(1/sqrt(M)); a non-vacuous PAC-Bayes bound with train-test gap of 0.0085 at N=4200; operation within 1.12x of the information-theoretic lower bound; graceful degradation as O(epsilon*delta*sqrt(K)) under corruption, maintaining 88% performance with half of evidence adversarially replaced; O(1/sqrt(K)) calibration decay with R^2=0.849; and exact epistemic-aleatoric uncertainty decomposition with error below 0.002%. All theorems are empirically validated on controlled datasets spanning up to 4,200 training examples. Our theoretical framework establishes LPF as a foundation for trustworthy multi-evidence AI in safety-critical applications.

Neural networks are central to modern artificial intelligence, yet their training remains highly sensitive to data contamination. Standard neural classifiers are trained by minimizing the categorical cross-entropy loss, corresponding to maximum likelihood estimation under a multinomial model. While statistically efficient under ideal conditions, this approach is highly vulnerable to contaminated observations including label noises corrupting supervision in the output space, and adversarial perturbations inducing worst-case deviations in the input space. In this paper, we propose a unified and statistically grounded framework for robust neural classification that addresses both forms of contamination within a single learning objective. We formulate neural network training as a minimum-divergence estimation problem and introduce rSDNet, a robust learning algorithm based on the general class of $S$-divergences. The resulting training objective inherits robustness properties from classical statistical estimation, automatically down-weighting aberrant observations through model probabilities. We establish essential population-level properties of rSDNet, including Fisher consistency, classification calibration implying Bayes optimality, and robustness guarantees under uniform label noise and infinitesimal feature contamination. Experiments on three benchmark image classification datasets show that rSDNet improves robustness to label corruption and adversarial attacks while maintaining competitive accuracy on clean data, Our results highlight minimum-divergence learning as a principled and effective framework for robust neural classification under heterogeneous data contamination.