Uncertainty
Causally Reliable Concept Bottleneck Models
Concept-based models are an emerging paradigm in deep learning that constrains the inference process to operate through human-interpretable variables, facilitating explainability and human interaction. However, these architectures, on par with popular opaque neural models, fail to account for the true causal mechanisms underlying the target phenomena represented in the data. This hampers their ability to support causal reasoning tasks, limits out-of-distribution generalization, and hinders the implementation of fairness constraints. To overcome these issues, we propose Causally reliable Concept Bottleneck Models (C2BMs), a class of concept-based architectures that enforce reasoning through a bottleneck of concepts structured according to a model of the real-world causal mechanisms. We also introduce a pipeline to automatically learn this structure from observational data and unstructured background knowledge (e.g., scientific literature). Experimental evidence suggests that C2BMs are more interpretable, causally reliable, and improve responsiveness to interventions w.r.t.
Don't Let It Fade: Preserving Edits in Diffusion Language Models via Token Timestep Allocation
While diffusion language models (DLMs) enable fine-grained refinement, their practical controllability remains fragile. We identify and formally characterize a central failure mode--update-forgetting--in which uniform, context-agnostic updates induce token-level fluctuations across timesteps, erasing earlier semantic edits and disrupting the cumulative refinement process, thereby degrading fluency and coherence. As this failure originates in uniform, context-agnostic updates, effective control demands explicit token ordering. We propose Token Timestep Allocation (TTA-DIFFUSION), which realizes soft, semantic token ordering via pertoken timestep schedules: critical tokens are frozen early, while uncertain tokens receive continued refinement. This timestep-based ordering can be instantiated as either a fixed policy or an adaptive policy driven by task signals, thereby supporting a broad spectrum of refinement strategies. Because it operates purely at inference time, it applies uniformly across various DLMs and naturally extends to diverse supervision sources. Empirically, TTA-DIFFUSION improves controllability and fluency: on sentiment control, it yields >20%higher accuracy and nearly halves perplexity using <1/5 the steps; in detoxification, it lowers maximum toxicity (12.2 vs. 14.5) and perplexity (26.0 vs. 32.0). Together, these results demonstrate that softened ordering via timestep allocation is the critical lever for mitigating update-forgetting and achieving stable and controllable diffusion text generation.
DEAL: Diffusion Evolution Adversarial Learning for Sim-to-Real Transfer
Training Reinforcement Learning (RL) controllers in simulation offers costefficiency and safety advantages. However, the resultant policies often suffer significant performance degradation during real-world deployment due to the reality gap. Previous works like System Identification (Sys-Id) have attempted to bridge this discrepancy by improving simulator fidelity, but encounter challenges including the collapse of high-dimensional parameter identification, low identification accuracy, and unstable convergence dynamics. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Sys-Id framework that combines Diffusion Evolution with Adversarial Learning (DEAL) to iteratively infer physical parameters with limited real-world data, which makes the state transitions between simulation and reality as similar as possible. Specifically, our method iteratively refines physical parameters through a dual mechanism: a discriminator network evaluates the similarity of state transitions between parameterized simulations and target environment as fitness guidance, while diffusion evolution adaptively modulates noise prediction and denoising processes to optimize parameter distributions.
PRESCRIBE: Predicting Single-Cell Responses with Bayesian Estimation
In single-cell perturbation prediction, a central task is to forecast the effects of perturbing a gene unseen in the training data. The efficacy of such predictions depends on two factors: (1) the similarity of the target gene to those covered in the training data, which informs model (epistemic) uncertainty, and (2) the quality of the corresponding training data, which reflects data (aleatoric) uncertainty. Both factors are critical for determining the reliability of a prediction, particularly as gene perturbation is an inherently stochastic biochemical process. In this paper, we propose PRESCRIBE (PREdicting Single-Cell Response wIth Bayesian Estimation), a multivariate deep evidential regression framework designed to measure both sources of uncertainty jointly. Our analysis demonstrates that PRESCRIBE effectively estimates a confidence score for each prediction, which strongly correlates with its empirical accuracy. This capability enables the filtering of untrustworthy results, and in our experiments, it achieves steady accuracy improvements of over 3% compared to comparable baselines.
Credal Prediction based on Relative Likelihood
Predictions in the form of sets of probability distributions, so-called credal sets, provide a suitable means to represent a learner's epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a theoretically grounded approach to credal prediction based on the statistical notion of relative likelihood: The target of prediction is the set of all (conditional) probability distributions produced by the collection of plausible models, namely those models whose relative likelihood exceeds a specified threshold. This threshold has an intuitive interpretation and allows for controlling the trade-off between correctness and precision of credal predictions. We tackle the problem of approximating credal sets defined in this way by means of suitably modified ensemble learning techniques. To validate our approach, we illustrate its effectiveness by experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrating superior uncertainty representation without compromising predictive performance. We also compare our method against several state-of-the-art baselines in credal prediction.
Noisy Multi-Label Learning through Co-Occurrence-Aware Diffusion
Noisy labels often compel models to overfit, especially in multi-label classification tasks. Existing methods for noisy multi-label learning (NML) primarily follow a discriminative paradigm, which relies on noise transition matrix estimation or small-loss strategies to correct noisy labels. However, they remain substantial optimization difficulties compared to noisy single-label learning. In this paper, we propose a Co-Occurrence-Aware Diffusion (CAD) model, which reformulates NML from a generative perspective. We treat features as conditions and multilabels as diffusion targets, optimizing the diffusion model for multi-label learning with theoretical guarantees. Benefiting from the diffusion model's strength in capturing multi-object semantics and structured label matrix representation, we can effectively learn the posterior mapping from features to true multi-labels. To mitigate the interference of noisy labels in the forward process, we guide generation using pseudo-clean labels reconstructed from the latent neighborhood space, replacing original point-wise estimates with neighborhood-based proxies. In the reverse process, we further incorporate label co-occurrence constraints to enhance the model's awareness of incorrect generation directions, thereby promoting robust optimization. Extensive experiments on both synthetic (Pascal-VOC, MS-COCO) and real-world (NUS-WIDE) noisy datasets demonstrate that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods.
Split Gibbs Discrete Diffusion Posterior Sampling
We study the problem of posterior sampling in discrete-state spaces using discrete diffusion models. While posterior sampling methods for continuous diffusion models have achieved remarkable progress, analogous methods for discrete diffusion models remain challenging. In this work, we introduce a principled plug-and-play discrete diffusion posterior sampling algorithm based on split Gibbs sampling, which we call SGDD. Our algorithm enables reward-guided generation and solving inverse problems in discrete-state spaces. We demonstrate the convergence of SGDD to the target posterior distribution and verify this through controlled experiments on synthetic benchmarks. Our method enjoys state-of-the-art posterior sampling performance on a range of benchmarks for discrete data, including DNA sequence design, discrete image inverse problems, and music infilling, achieving more than 30% improved performance compared to existing baselines.
Variational Inference with Mixtures of Isotropic Gaussians
Variational inference (VI) is a popular approach in Bayesian inference, that looks for the best approximation of the posterior distribution within a parametric family, minimizing a loss that is typically the (reverse) Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. In this paper, we focus on the following parametric family: mixtures of isotropic Gaussians (i.e., with diagonal covariance matrices proportional to the identity) and uniform weights. We develop a variational framework and provide efficient algorithms suited for this family. In contrast with mixtures of Gaussian with generic covariance matrices, this choice presents a balance between accurate approximations of multimodal Bayesian posteriors, while being memory and computationally efficient. Our algorithms implement gradient descent on the location of the mixture components (the modes of the Gaussians), and either (an entropic) Mirror or Bures descent on their variance parameters. We illustrate the performance of our algorithms on numerical experiments.
DOTA: DistributiOnal Test-time Adaptation of Vision-Language Models
However, deploying these models can be unreliable when significant distribution gaps exist between training and test data, while fine-tuning for diverse scenarios is often costly. This creates a need for methods that can efficiently adapt to new data at test time without expensive retraining. Cache-based test-time adapters serve this purpose by storing representative test samples to guide subsequent classifications. Yet, these methods typically employ naive cache management with limited capacity, leading to severe catastrophic forgetting when samples are inevitably dropped during updates. In this paper, we propose Dota(DistributiOnal Test-time Adaptation), a simple yet effective method addressing this limitation. Crucially, instead of merely memorizing individual test samples, Dotacontinuously estimates the underlying distribution of the test data stream. Test-time posterior probabilities are then computed using these dynamically estimated distributions via Bayes' theorem for adaptation. This distribution-centric approach enables the model to continually learn and adapt to the deployment environment. Extensive experiments validate that Dota significantly mitigates forgetting and achieves state-of-the-art performance compared to existing methods.
SOMBRL: Scalable and Optimistic Model-Based RL
We address the challenge of efficient exploration in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL), where the system dynamics are unknown and the RL agent must learn directly from online interactions. We propose Scalable and Optimistic MBRL (SOMBRL), an approach based on the principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty. SOMBRL learns an uncertainty-aware dynamics model and greedily maximizes a weighted sum of the extrinsic reward and the agent's epistemic uncertainty. SOMBRL is compatible with any policy optimizers or planners, and under common regularity assumptions on the system, we show that SOMBRL has sublinear regret for nonlinear dynamics in the (i) finite-horizon, (ii) discounted infinite-horizon, and (iii) non-episodic settings. Additionally, SOMBRL offers a flexible and scalable solution for principled exploration. We evaluate SOMBRL on state-based and visual-control environments, where it displays strong performance across all tasks and baselines. We also evaluate SOMBRL on a dynamic RC car hardware and show SOMBRL outperforms the state-of-the-art, illustrating the benefits of principled exploration for MBRL.