We define maximum entropy goal-directedness (MEG), a formal measure of goal-directedness in causal models and Markov decision processes, and give algorithms for computing it. Measuring goal-directedness is important, as it is a critical element of many concerns about harm from AI. It is also of philosophical interest, as goal-directedness is a key aspect of agency. MEG is based on an adaptation of the maximum causal entropy framework used in inverse reinforcement learning. It can measure goal-directedness with respect to a known utility function, a hypothesis class of utility functions, or a set of random variables. We prove that MEG satisfies several desiderata and demonstrate our algorithms with small-scale experiments.

The problem of classifying graphs is ubiquitous in machine learning. While it is standard to apply graph neural networks or graph kernel methods, Gaussian processes can be employed by transforming spatial features from the graph domain into spectral features in the Euclidean domain, and using them as the input points of classical kernels. However, this approach currently only takes into account features on vertices, whereas some graph datasets also support features on edges. In this work, we present a Gaussian process-based classification algorithm that can leverage one or both vertex and edges features. Furthermore, we take advantage of the Hodge decomposition to better capture the intricate richness of vertex and edge features, which can be beneficial on diverse tasks.

Medical image reconstruction with pre-trained score-based generative models (SGMs) has advantages over other existing state-of-the-art deep-learned reconstruction methods, including improved resilience to different scanner setups and advanced image distribution modeling. SGM-based reconstruction has recently been applied to simulated positron emission tomography (PET) datasets, showing improved contrast recovery for out-of-distribution lesions relative to the state-of-the-art. However, existing methods for SGM-based reconstruction from PET data suffer from slow reconstruction, burdensome hyperparameter tuning and slice inconsistency effects (in 3D). In this work, we propose a practical methodology for fully 3D reconstruction that accelerates reconstruction and reduces the number of critical hyperparameters by matching the likelihood of an SGM's reverse diffusion process to a current iterate of the maximum-likelihood expectation maximization algorithm. Using the example of low-count reconstruction from simulated $[^{18}$F]DPA-714 datasets, we show our methodology can match or improve on the NRMSE and SSIM of existing state-of-the-art SGM-based PET reconstruction while reducing reconstruction time and the need for hyperparameter tuning. We evaluate our methodology against state-of-the-art supervised and conventional reconstruction algorithms. Finally, we demonstrate a first-ever implementation of SGM-based reconstruction for real 3D PET data, specifically $[^{18}$F]DPA-714 data, where we integrate perpendicular pre-trained SGMs to eliminate slice inconsistency issues.

Multiphysics simulation, which models the interactions between multiple physical processes, and multi-component simulation of complex structures are critical in fields like nuclear and aerospace engineering. Previous studies often rely on numerical solvers or machine learning-based surrogate models to solve or accelerate these simulations. However, multiphysics simulations typically require integrating multiple specialized solvers-each responsible for evolving a specific physical process-into a coupled program, which introduces significant development challenges. Furthermore, no universal algorithm exists for multi-component simulations, which adds to the complexity. Here we propose compositional Multiphysics and Multi-component Simulation with Diffusion models (MultiSimDiff) to overcome these challenges. During diffusion-based training, MultiSimDiff learns energy functions modeling the conditional probability of one physical process/component conditioned on other processes/components. In inference, MultiSimDiff generates coupled multiphysics solutions and multi-component structures by sampling from the joint probability distribution, achieved by composing the learned energy functions in a structured way. We test our method in three tasks. In the reaction-diffusion and nuclear thermal coupling problems, MultiSimDiff successfully predicts the coupling solution using decoupled data, while the surrogate model fails in the more complex second problem. For the thermal and mechanical analysis of the prismatic fuel element, MultiSimDiff trained for single component prediction accurately predicts a larger structure with 64 components, reducing the relative error by 40.3% compared to the surrogate model.

A central goal of machine learning is generalization. While the No Free Lunch Theorem states that we cannot obtain theoretical guarantees for generalization without further assumptions, in practice we observe that simple models which explain the training data generalize best: a principle called Occam's razor. Despite the need for simple models, most current approaches in machine learning only minimize the training error, and at best indirectly promote simplicity through regularization or architecture design. Here, we draw a connection between Occam's razor and in-context learning: an emergent ability of certain sequence models like Transformers to learn at inference time from past observations in a sequence. In particular, we show that the next-token prediction loss used to train in-context learners is directly equivalent to a data compression technique called prequential coding, and that minimizing this loss amounts to jointly minimizing both the training error and the complexity of the model that was implicitly learned from context. Our theory and the empirical experiments we use to support it not only provide a normative account of in-context learning, but also elucidate the shortcomings of current in-context learning methods, suggesting ways in which they can be improved. We make our code available at https://github.com/3rdCore/PrequentialCode.

Recently, there has been an increasing interest in performing post-hoc uncertainty estimation about the predictions of pre-trained deep neural networks (DNNs). Given a pre-trained DNN via back-propagation, these methods enhance the original network by adding output confidence measures, such as error bars, without compromising its initial accuracy. In this context, we introduce a novel family of sparse variational Gaussian processes (GPs), where the posterior mean is fixed to any continuous function when using a universal kernel. Specifically, we fix the mean of this GP to the output of the pre-trained DNN, allowing our approach to effectively fit the GP's predictive variances to estimate the DNN prediction uncertainty. Our approach leverages variational inference (VI) for efficient stochastic optimization, with training costs that remain independent of the number of training points, scaling efficiently to large datasets such as ImageNet. The proposed method, called fixed mean GP (FMGP), is architecture-agnostic, relying solely on the pre-trained model's outputs to adjust the predictive variances. Experimental results demonstrate that FMGP improves both uncertainty estimation and computational efficiency when compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Logistic regression is a classical model for describing the probabilistic dependence of binary responses to multivariate covariates. We consider the predictive performance of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for logistic regression, assessed in terms of logistic risk. We consider two questions: first, that of the existence of the MLE (which occurs when the dataset is not linearly separated), and second that of its accuracy when it exists. These properties depend on both the dimension of covariates and on the signal strength. In the case of Gaussian covariates and a well-specified logistic model, we obtain sharp non-asymptotic guarantees for the existence and excess logistic risk of the MLE. We then generalize these results in two ways: first, to non-Gaussian covariates satisfying a certain two-dimensional margin condition, and second to the general case of statistical learning with a possibly misspecified logistic model. Finally, we consider the case of a Bernoulli design, where the behavior of the MLE is highly sensitive to the parameter direction.

Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) has received increasing research attention due to its capability to analyze and model complex dynamical systems. However, it faces challenges in computational efficiency, noise sensitivity, and difficulty adhering to physical laws, which negatively affect its performance. Addressing these issues, we present Online Physics-informed DMD (OPIDMD), a novel adaptation of DMD into a convex optimization framework. This approach not only ensures convergence to a unique global optimum, but also enhances the efficiency and accuracy of modeling dynamical systems in an online setting. Leveraging the Bayesian DMD framework, we propose a probabilistic interpretation of Physics-informed DMD (piDMD), examining the impact of physical constraints on the DMD linear operator. Further, we implement online proximal gradient descent and formulate specific algorithms to tackle problems with different physical constraints, enabling real-time solutions across various scenarios. Compared with existing algorithms such as Exact DMD, Online DMD, and piDMD, OPIDMD achieves the best prediction performance in short-term forecasting, e.g. an $R^2$ value of 0.991 for noisy Lorenz system. The proposed method employs a time-varying linear operator, offering a promising solution for the real-time simulation and control of complex dynamical systems.

Particle-based Bayesian inference methods by sampling from a partition-free target (posterior) distribution, e.g., Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD), have attracted significant attention. We propose a path-guided particle-based sampling~(PGPS) method based on a novel Log-weighted Shrinkage (LwS) density path linking an initial distribution to the target distribution. We propose to utilize a Neural network to learn a vector field motivated by the Fokker-Planck equation of the designed density path. Particles, initiated from the initial distribution, evolve according to the ordinary differential equation defined by the vector field. The distribution of these particles is guided along a density path from the initial distribution to the target distribution. The proposed LwS density path allows for an efficient search of modes of the target distribution while canonical methods fail. We theoretically analyze the Wasserstein distance of the distribution of the PGPS-generated samples and the target distribution due to approximation and discretization errors. Practically, the proposed PGPS-LwS method demonstrates higher Bayesian inference accuracy and better calibration ability in experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world Bayesian learning tasks, compared to baselines, such as SVGD and Langevin dynamics, etc.

Autonomous and semi-autonomous systems are using deep learning models to improve decision-making. However, deep classifiers can be overly confident in their incorrect predictions, a major issue especially in safety-critical domains. The present study introduces three foundational desiderata for developing real-world risk-aware classification systems. Expanding upon the previously proposed Evidential Deep Learning (EDL), we demonstrate the unity between these principles and EDL's operational attributes. We then augment EDL empowering autonomous agents to exercise discretion during structured decision-making when uncertainty and risks are inherent. We rigorously examine empirical scenarios to substantiate these theoretical innovations. In contrast to existing risk-aware classifiers, our proposed methodologies consistently exhibit superior performance, underscoring their transformative potential in risk-conscious classification strategies.