Large language models (LLMs), trained on diverse data effectively acquire a breadth of information across various domains. However, their computational complexity, cost, and lack of transparency hinder their direct application for specialised tasks. In fields such as clinical research, acquiring expert annotations or prior knowledge about predictive models is often costly and time-consuming. This study proposes the use of LLMs to elicit expert prior distributions for predictive models. This approach also provides an alternative to in-context learning, where language models are tasked with making predictions directly. In this work, we compare LLM-elicited and uninformative priors, evaluate whether LLMs truthfully generate parameter distributions, and propose a model selection strategy for in-context learning and prior elicitation. Our findings show that LLM-elicited prior parameter distributions significantly reduce predictive error compared to uninformative priors in low-data settings. Applied to clinical problems, this translates to fewer required biological samples, lowering cost and resources. Prior elicitation also consistently outperforms and proves more reliable than in-context learning at a lower cost, making it a preferred alternative in our setting. We demonstrate the utility of this method across various use cases, including clinical applications. For infection prediction, using LLM-elicited priors reduced the number of required labels to achieve the same accuracy as an uninformative prior by 55%, 200 days earlier in the study.

This paper studies semiparametric Bayesian inference for the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) within the difference-in-differences research design. We propose two new Bayesian methods with frequentist validity. The first one places a standard Gaussian process prior on the conditional mean function of the control group. We obtain asymptotic equivalence of our Bayesian estimator and an efficient frequentist estimator by establishing a semiparametric Bernstein-von Mises (BvM) theorem. The second method is a double robust Bayesian procedure that adjusts the prior distribution of the conditional mean function and subsequently corrects the posterior distribution of the resulting ATT. We establish a semiparametric BvM result under double robust smoothness conditions; i.e., the lack of smoothness of conditional mean functions can be compensated by high regularity of the propensity score, and vice versa. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian DiD methods exhibit strong finite-sample performance compared to existing frequentist methods. Finally, we outline an extension to difference-in-differences with multiple periods and staggered entry.

We address the challenge of incorporating document-level metadata into topic modeling to improve topic mixture estimation. To overcome the computational complexity and lack of theoretical guarantees in existing Bayesian methods, we extend probabilistic latent semantic indexing (pLSI), a frequentist framework for topic modeling, by incorporating document-level covariates or known similarities between documents through a graph formalism. Modeling documents as nodes and edges denoting similarities, we propose a new estimator based on a fast graph-regularized iterative singular value decomposition (SVD) that encourages similar documents to share similar topic mixture proportions. We characterize the estimation error of our proposed method by deriving high-probability bounds and develop a specialized cross-validation method to optimize our regularization parameters. We validate our model through comprehensive experiments on synthetic datasets and three real-world corpora, demonstrating improved performance and faster inference compared to existing Bayesian methods.

Existing permanental processes often impose constraints on kernel types or stationarity, limiting the model's expressiveness. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel approach utilizing the sparse spectral representation of nonstationary kernels. This technique relaxes the constraints on kernel types and stationarity, allowing for more flexible modeling while reducing computational complexity to the linear level. Additionally, we introduce a deep kernel variant by hierarchically stacking multiple spectral feature mappings, further enhancing the model's expressiveness to capture complex patterns in data. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, particularly in scenarios with pronounced data nonstationarity. Additionally, ablation studies are conducted to provide insights into the impact of various hyperparameters on model performance.

Sequential problems are ubiquitous in AI, such as in reinforcement learning or natural language processing. State-of-the-art deep sequential models, like transformers, excel in these settings but fail to guarantee the satisfaction of constraints necessary for trustworthy deployment. In contrast, neurosymbolic AI (NeSy) provides a sound formalism to enforce constraints in deep probabilistic models but scales exponentially on sequential problems. To overcome these limitations, we introduce relational neurosymbolic Markov models (NeSy-MMs), a new class of end-to-end differentiable sequential models that integrate and provably satisfy relational logical constraints. We propose a strategy for inference and learning that scales on sequential settings, and that combines approximate Bayesian inference, automated reasoning, and gradient estimation. Our experiments show that NeSy-MMs can solve problems beyond the current state-of-the-art in neurosymbolic AI and still provide strong guarantees with respect to desired properties. Moreover, we show that our models are more interpretable and that constraints can be adapted at test time to out-of-distribution scenarios.

This paper proposes a new design method for a stochastic control policy using a normalizing flow (NF). In reinforcement learning (RL), the policy is usually modeled as a distribution model with trainable parameters. When this parameterization has less expressiveness, it would fail to acquiring the optimal policy. A mixture model has capability of a universal approximation, but it with too much redundancy increases the computational cost, which can become a bottleneck when considering the use of real-time robot control. As another approach, NF, which is with additional parameters for invertible transformation from a simple stochastic model as a base, is expected to exert high expressiveness and lower computational cost. However, NF cannot compute its mean analytically due to complexity of the invertible transformation, and it lacks reliability because it retains stochastic behaviors after deployment for robot controller. This paper therefore designs a restricted NF (RNF) that achieves an analytic mean by appropriately restricting the invertible transformation. In addition, the expressiveness impaired by this restriction is regained using bimodal student-t distribution as its base, so-called Bit-RNF. In RL benchmarks, Bit-RNF policy outperformed the previous models. Finally, a real robot experiment demonstrated the applicability of Bit-RNF policy to real world. The attached video is uploaded on youtube: https://youtu.be/R_GJVZDW9bk

Sentiment analysis is an essential component of natural language processing, used to analyze sentiments, attitudes, and emotional tones in various contexts. It provides valuable insights into public opinion, customer feedback, and user experiences. Researchers have developed various classical machine learning and neuro-fuzzy approaches to address the exponential growth of data and the complexity of language structures in sentiment analysis. However, these approaches often fail to determine the optimal number of clusters, interpret results accurately, handle noise or outliers efficiently, and scale effectively to high-dimensional data. Additionally, they are frequently insensitive to input variations. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid approach for sentiment analysis called the Quantum Fuzzy Neural Network (QFNN), which leverages quantum properties and incorporates a fuzzy layer to overcome the limitations of classical sentiment analysis algorithms. In this study, we test the proposed approach on two Twitter datasets: the Coronavirus Tweets Dataset (CVTD) and the General Sentimental Tweets Dataset (GSTD), and compare it with classical and hybrid algorithms. The results demonstrate that QFNN outperforms all classical, quantum, and hybrid algorithms, achieving 100% and 90% accuracy in the case of CVTD and GSTD, respectively. Furthermore, QFNN demonstrates its robustness against six different noise models, providing the potential to tackle the computational complexity associated with sentiment analysis on a large scale in a noisy environment. The proposed approach expedites sentiment data processing and precisely analyses different forms of textual data, thereby enhancing sentiment classification and insights associated with sentiment analysis.

Spatiotemporal data imputation plays a crucial role in various fields such as traffic flow monitoring, air quality assessment, and climate prediction. However, spatiotemporal data collected by sensors often suffer from temporal incompleteness, and the sparse and uneven distribution of sensors leads to missing data in the spatial dimension. Among existing methods, autoregressive approaches are prone to error accumulation, while simple conditional diffusion models fail to adequately capture the spatiotemporal relationships between observed and missing data. To address these issues, we propose a novel two-stage Refined Diffusion Probability Impuation (RDPI) framework based on an initial network and a conditional diffusion model. In the initial stage, deterministic imputation methods are used to generate preliminary estimates of the missing data. In the refinement stage, residuals are treated as the diffusion target, and observed values are innovatively incorporated into the forward process. This results in a conditional diffusion model better suited for spatiotemporal data imputation, bridging the gap between the preliminary estimates and the true values. Experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate that RDPI not only achieves state-of-the-art imputation accuracy but also significantly reduces sampling computational costs.

Federated learning (FL) is an emerging distributed artificial In the context of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs), federated intelligence framework that enables privacy-preserving machine learning (FL) is employed to address several intrinsic challenges learning by synthesizing local models instead of sharing associated with these models. FL offers an effective actual data [1]. The general fundamental process can be outlined approach to managing these challenges, enhancing the performance as follows [2]: the federation process is initiated by a and applicability of FCMs. One necessary issue in the single server or participant who provides an initial model for FCMs is the decentralised nature of data sources and the need individual participants to train using their local data. These to preserve data privacy and security while enabling collaborative participants then share the model's weights or gradients with model development. FCM models frequently rely on the server (or other participants) for aggregation, typically using data distributed across multiple locations or organisations.

In this work, we address the problem of controlling a classifier's accuracy at any user-specified level through selective classification, regardless of the problem's inherent difficulty. Traditional classification frameworks are designed to approximate the Bayes optimal error rate as closely as possible. However, with the growing deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) systems in automated, high-stakes decision-making, it has become critical to ensure reliable control over a classifier's accuracy and to guarantee accurate predictions for all individuals. When the underlying problem is truly difficult, as indicated by the distance between the true distributions for each decision class, achieving control over the error rate of an automated decisionmaking system may be impossible. This is particularly true when the number of potential classes is large or when the distributions of these classes are close enough, significantly increasing the difficulty of the problem. This phenomenon is illustrated in Figure 1, where the task is to classify various observations as High-Risk or Low-Risk, while maintaining an error rate below 5%. In this example, the High-Risk and Low-Risk classes are modeled as mixtures of two normal distributions with means of 2 and 1, respectively, and a shared variance of 1. The Bayes classifier is represented by the dotted line in the leftmost plot of Figure 1. In this scenario, the Bayes optimal error rate is 15.9%, significantly exceeding our target classification error of 5%.