Neural population activity in cortical circuits is not solely driven by external inputs, but is also modulated by endogenous states which vary on multiple time-scales. To understand information processing in cortical circuits, we need to understand the statistical structure of internal states and their interaction with sensory inputs. Here, we present a statistical model for extracting hierarchically organised neural population states from multi-channel recordings of neural spiking activity. Population states are modelled using a hidden Markov decision tree with state-dependent tuning parameters and a generalised linear observation model. We present a variational Bayesian inference algorithm for estimating the posterior distribution over parameters from neural population recordings. On simulated data, we show that we can identify the underlying sequence of population states and reconstruct the ground truth parameters. Using population recordings from visual cortex, we find that a model with two levels of population states outperforms both a one-state and a two-state generalised linear model. Finally, we find that modelling of state-dependence also improves the accuracy with which sensory stimuli can be decoded from the population response.

We develop a new exponential family probabilistic model for permutations that can capture hierarchical structure and that has the Mallows and generalized Mallows models as subclasses. We describe how to do parameter estimation and propose an approach to structure search for this class of models. We provide experimental evidence that this added flexibility both improves predictive performance and enables a deeper understanding of collections of permutations.

State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse Gaussian processes. The result of learning is a tractable posterior over nonlinear dynamical systems. In comparison to conventional parametric models, we offer the possibility to straightforwardly trade off model capacity and computational cost whilst avoiding overfitting. Our main algorithm uses a hybrid inference approach combining variational Bayes and sequential Monte Carlo.

Video summarization is a challenging problem with great application potential. Whereas prior approaches, largely unsupervised in nature, focus on sampling useful frames and assembling them as summaries, we consider video summarization as a supervised subset selection problem. Our idea is to teach the system to learn from human-created summaries how to select informative and diverse subsets, so as to best meet evaluation metrics derived from human-perceived quality. To this end, we propose the sequential determinantal point process (seqDPP), a probabilistic model for diverse sequential subset selection. Our novel seqDPP heeds the inherent sequential structures in video data, thus overcoming the deficiency of the standard DPP, which treats video frames as randomly permutable items. Meanwhile, seqDPP retains the power of modeling diverse subsets, essential for summarization. Our extensive results of summarizing videos from 3 datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method, compared to not only existing unsupervised methods but also naive applications of the standard DPP model.

While robust parameter estimation has been well studied in parametric density estimation, there has been little investigation into robust density estimation in the nonparametric setting. We present a robust version of the popular kernel density estimator (KDE). As with other estimators, a robust version of the KDE is useful since sample contamination is a common issue with datasets. What "robustness" means for a nonparametric density estimate is not straightforward and is a topic we explore in this paper.

Weaknesses: The proof, as described by the authors themselves, depend on the assumption on the gap optimality. The relationship between the approximation error and this optimality gap is crucial, a larger approximation error requires a larger gap to ensure the favorable properties. It is not entirely clear whether these bounds are meaningful in practice. Secondly, the algorithm for the general case requires an oracle to determine the most uncertain action given a state for the approximation family F. While it is argued that a similar oracle is used in previous work, it is not clear whether this is more realistic than previous work dismissed by the authors in related work ("Know-What-It-Knows" oracle in Li et al. 2011). The proof applies only to deterministic systems, restricting its application significantly.

This paper makes progress on our theoretical understanding of function approximation in RL, a crucial and tricky topic. The paper is technically strong and proposes a highly novel recursion-based algorithm that could open the door to future innovations.

We study the sensitivity of a MAP configuration of a discrete probabilistic graphical model with respect to perturbations of its parameters. These perturbations are global, in the sense that simultaneous perturbations of all the parameters (or any chosen subset of them) are allowed. Our main contribution is an exact algorithm that can check whether the MAP configuration is robust with respect to given perturbations. Its complexity is essentially the same as that of obtaining the MAP configuration itself, so it can be promptly used with minimal effort. We use our algorithm to identify the largest global perturbation that does not induce a change in the MAP configuration, and we successfully apply this robustness measure in two practical scenarios: the prediction of facial action units with posed images and the classification of multiple real public data sets. A strong correlation between the proposed robustness measure and accuracy is verified in both scenarios.

This paper is concerned with compressive sensing of signals drawn from a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) with sparse precision matrices. Previous work has shown: (i) a signal drawn from a given GMM can be perfectly reconstructed from r noise-free measurements if the (dominant) rank of each covariance matrix is less than r; (ii) a sparse Gaussian graphical model can be efficiently estimated from fully-observed training signals using graphical lasso. This paper addresses a problem more challenging than both (i) and (ii), by assuming that the GMM is unknown and each signal is only observed through incomplete linear measurements. Under these challenging assumptions, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian method to simultaneously estimate the GMM and recover the signals using solely the incomplete measurements and a Bayesian shrinkage prior that promotes sparsity of the Gaussian precision matrices. In addition, we provide theoretical performance bounds to relate the reconstruction error to the number of signals for which measurements are available, the sparsity level of precision matrices, and the "incompleteness" of measurements. The proposed method is demonstrated extensively on compressive sensing of imagery and video, and the results with simulated and hardware-acquired real measurements show significant performance improvement over state-of-the-art methods.

Multilayer Neural Networks (MNNs) are commonly trained using gradient descent-based methods, such as BackPropagation (BP). Inference in probabilistic graphical models is often done using variational Bayes methods, such as Expectation Propagation (EP). We show how an EP based approach can also be used to train deterministic MNNs. Specifically, we approximate the posterior of the weights given the data using a "mean-field" factorized distribution, in an online setting. Using online EP and the central limit theorem we find an analytical approximation to the Bayes update of this posterior, as well as the resulting Bayes estimates of the weights and outputs. Despite a different origin, the resulting algorithm, Expectation BackPropagation (EBP), is very similar to BP in form and efficiency. However, it has several additional advantages: (1) Training is parameter-free, given initial conditions (prior) and the MNN architecture. This is useful for large-scale problems, where parameter tuning is a major challenge.