Uncertainty
Mind the Nuisance: Gaussian Process Classification using Privileged Noise
Daniel Hernández-lobato, Viktoriia Sharmanska, Kristian Kersting, Christoph H. Lampert, Novi Quadrianto
The learning with privileged information setting has recently attracted a lot of attention within the machine learning community, as it allows the integration of additional knowledge into the training process of a classifier, even when this comes in the form of a data modality that is not available at test time. Here, we show that privileged information can naturally be treated as noise in the latent function of a Gaussian process classifier (GPC). That is, in contrast to the standard GPC setting, the latent function is not just a nuisance but a feature: it becomes a natural measure of confidence about the training data by modulating the slope of the GPC probit likelihood function. Extensive experiments on public datasets show that the proposed GPC method using privileged noise, called GPC+, improves over a standard GPC without privileged knowledge, and also over the current state-of-the-art SVM-based method, SVM+. Moreover, we show that advanced neural networks and deep learning methods can be compressed as privileged information.
Learning Time-Varying Coverage Functions
Nan Du, Yingyu Liang, Maria-Florina F. Balcan, Le Song
Coverage functions are an important class of discrete functions that capture the law of diminishing returns arising naturally from applications in social network analysis, machine learning, and algorithmic game theory. In this paper, we propose a new problem of learning time-varying coverage functions, and develop a novel parametrization of these functions using random features. Based on the connection between time-varying coverage functions and counting processes, we also propose an efficient parameter learning algorithm based on likelihood maximization, and provide a sample complexity analysis. We applied our algorithm to the influence function estimation problem in information diffusion in social networks, and show that with few assumptions about the diffusion processes, our algorithm is able to estimate influence significantly more accurately than existing approaches on both synthetic and real world data.
Sequential Monte Carlo for Graphical Models
Christian Andersson Naesseth, Fredrik Lindsten, Thomas B. Schön
We propose a new framework for how to use sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms for inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGM). Via a sequential decomposition of the PGM we find a sequence of auxiliary distributions defined on a monotonically increasing sequence of probability spaces. By targeting these auxiliary distributions using SMC we are able to approximate the full joint distribution defined by the PGM. One of the key merits of the SMC sampler is that it provides an unbiased estimate of the partition function of the model. We also show how it can be used within a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo framework in order to construct high-dimensional block-sampling algorithms for general PGMs.
Generative Adversarial Nets
Ian Goodfellow, Jean Pouget-Abadie, Mehdi Mirza, Bing Xu, David Warde-Farley, Sherjil Ozair, Aaron Courville, Yoshua Bengio
We propose a new framework for estimating generative models via an adversarial process, in which we simultaneously train two models: a generative model G that captures the data distribution, and a discriminative model D that estimates the probability that a sample came from the training data rather than G. The training procedure for G is to maximize the probability of D making a mistake.
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The authors propose a dynamic hierarchical clustering model which allows hierarchies clusters (topics) and corresponding parameters (popularities, word frequencies) to vary in time. Indeed, it is a stochastic process with tree structured marginals so a different hierarchical clustering is specified per time index. Since in general it is a computationally expensive task to do full Bayesian inference they propose an approximate inference scheme where the parameters of each node are MAP estimates and the node re-assignment of observations is done by a Gibbs step. It is based on the tree structured stick breaking process so it allows the observations to be assigned to internal nodes and leaves of the tree rather than just leaves or complete paths. My main concern is that it is not fully exploiting the non-parametric nature of the model since the authors fixed the depth of the trees in the experiments. It would be nice that the depth varied over time or that a more detailed sensitivity analysis was presented.
A Framework for Testing Identifiability of Bayesian Models of Perception Luigi Acerbi Wei Ji Ma
Bayesian observer models are very effective in describing human performance in perceptual tasks, so much so that they are trusted to faithfully recover hidden mental representations of priors, likelihoods, or loss functions from the data. However, the intrinsic degeneracy of the Bayesian framework, as multiple combinations of elements can yield empirically indistinguishable results, prompts the question of model identifiability. We propose a novel framework for a systematic testing of the identifiability of a significant class of Bayesian observer models, with practical applications for improving experimental design. We examine the theoretical identifiability of the inferred internal representations in two case studies. First, we show which experimental designs work better to remove the underlying degeneracy in a time interval estimation task. Second, we find that the reconstructed representations in a speed perception task under a slow-speed prior are fairly robust.
Causal Inference through a Witness Protection Program
One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been adjusted for. We introduce a novel approach for estimating causal effects that exploits observational conditional independencies to suggest "weak" paths in a unknown causal graph. The widely used faithfulness condition of Spirtes et al. is relaxed to allow for varying degrees of "path cancellations" that will imply conditional independencies but do not rule out the existence of confounding causal paths. The outcome is a posterior distribution over bounds on the average causal effect via a linear programming approach and Bayesian inference. We claim this approach should be used in regular practice to complement other default tools in observational studies.
Iterative Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimator NADE-k
Tapani Raiko, Yao Li, Kyunghyun Cho, Yoshua Bengio
Training of the neural autoregressive density estimator (NADE) can be viewed as doing one step of probabilistic inference on missing values in data. We propose a new model that extends this inference scheme to multiple steps, arguing that it is easier to learn to improve a reconstruction in k steps rather than to learn to reconstruct in a single inference step. The proposed model is an unsupervised building block for deep learning that combines the desirable properties of NADE and multi-prediction training: (1) Its test likelihood can be computed analytically, (2) it is easy to generate independent samples from it, and (3) it uses an inference engine that is a superset of variational inference for Boltzmann machines. The proposed NADE-k is competitive with the state-of-the-art in density estimation on the two datasets tested.
Analysis of Variational Bayesian Latent Dirichlet Allocation: Weaker Sparsity Than MAP
Shinichi Nakajima, Issei None Sato, Masashi Sugiyama, Kazuho Watanabe, Hiroko Kobayashi
Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) is a popular generative model of various objects such as texts and images, where an object is expressed as a mixture of latent topics. In this paper, we theoretically investigate variational Bayesian (VB) learning in LDA. More specifically, we analytically derive the leading term of the VB free energy under an asymptotic setup, and show that there exist transition thresholds in Dirichlet hyperparameters around which the sparsity-inducing behavior drastically changes. Then we further theoretically reveal the notable phenomenon that VB tends to induce weaker sparsity than MAP in the LDA model, which is opposed to other models. We experimentally demonstrate the practical validity of our asymptotic theory on real-world Last.FM music data.