Accurate and detailed models of neurodegenerative disease progression are crucially important for reliable early diagnosis and the determination of effective treatments. We introduce the ALPACA (Alzheimer's disease Probabilistic Cascades) model, a generative model linking latent Alzheimer's progression dynamics to observable biomarker data. In contrast with previous works which model disease progression as a fixed event ordering, we explicitly model the variability over such orderings among patients which is more realistic, particularly for highly detailed progression models. We describe efficient learning algorithms for ALPACA and discuss promising experimental results on a real cohort of Alzheimer's patients from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.

We present an approach for learning stochastic geometric models of object categories from single view images. We focus here on models expressible as a spatially contiguous assemblage of blocks. Model topologies are learned across groups of images, and one or more such topologies is linked to an object category (e.g.

In the quest to advance human-centric natural language generation (NLG) systems, ensuring alignment between NLG models and human preferences is crucial. For this alignment, current popular methods leverage a reinforcement learning (RL) approach with a reward model trained on feedback from humans. However, inherent disagreements due to the subjective nature of human preferences pose a significant challenge for training the reward model, resulting in a deterioration of the NLG performance. To tackle this issue, previous approaches typically rely on majority voting or averaging to consolidate multiple inconsistent preferences into a merged one. Although straightforward to understand and execute, such methods suffer from an inability to capture the nuanced degrees of disaggregation among humans and may only represent a specialized subset of individuals, thereby lacking the ability to quantitatively disclose the universality of human preferences.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at inference time. Existing inference-time scaling methods, usually with reward models, cast the task as a search problem, which tends to be vulnerable to reward hacking as a consequence of approximation errors in reward models. In this paper, we instead cast inference-time scaling as a probabilistic inference task and leverage sampling-based techniques to explore the typical set of the state distribution of a state-space model with an approximate likelihood, rather than optimize for its mode directly. We propose a novel inference-time scaling approach by adapting particle-based Monte Carlo methods to this task. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our methods have a 4-16x better scaling rate over our deterministic search counterparts on various challenging mathematical reasoning tasks. Using our approach, we show that Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct can surpass GPT-4o accuracy in only 4 rollouts, while Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct scales to o1 level accuracy in only 32 rollouts. Our work not only presents an effective method to inference-time scaling, but also connects the rich literature in probabilistic inference with inference-time scaling of LLMs to develop more robust algorithms in future work. Code, videos, and further information available at https://probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io.

Sampling from unnormalized densities is a fundamental task across various domains. Flow-based samplers generate samples by learning a velocity field that satisfies the continuity equation, but this requires estimating the intractable time derivative of the partition function. While importance sampling provides an approximation, it suffers from high variance. To mitigate this, we introduce a velocity-driven Sequential Monte Carlo method combined with control variates to reduce variance. Additionally, we incorporate a shortcut model to improve efficiency by minimizing the number of sampling steps. Empirical results on both synthetic datasets and $n$-body system targets validate the effectiveness of our approach.

We present a novel extension of the Weak Neural Variational Inference (WNVI) framework for probabilistic material property estimation that explicitly quantifies model errors in PDE-based inverse problems. Traditional approaches assume the correctness of all governing equations, including potentially unreliable constitutive laws, which can lead to biased estimates and misinterpretations. Our proposed framework addresses this limitation by distinguishing between reliable governing equations, such as conservation laws, and uncertain constitutive relationships. By treating all state variables as latent random variables, we enforce these equations through separate sets of residuals, leveraging a virtual likelihood approach with weighted residuals. This formulation not only identifies regions where constitutive laws break down but also improves robustness against model uncertainties without relying on a fully trustworthy forward model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in the context of elastography, showing that it provides a structured, interpretable, and computationally efficient alternative to traditional model error correction techniques. Our findings suggest that the proposed framework enhances the accuracy and reliability of material property estimation by offering a principled way to incorporate uncertainty in constitutive modeling.

The off-switch problem is a critical challenge in AI control: if an AI system resists being switched off, it poses a significant risk. In this paper, we model the off-switch problem as a signalling game, where a human decision-maker communicates its preferences about some underlying decision problem to an AI agent, which then selects actions to maximise the human's utility. We assume that the human is a bounded rational agent and explore various bounded rationality mechanisms. Using real machine learning models, we reprove prior results and demonstrate that a necessary condition for an AI system to refrain from disabling its off-switch is its uncertainty about the human's utility. We also analyse how message costs influence optimal strategies and extend the analysis to scenarios involving incomparability.

Behavior cloning (BC) traditionally relies on demonstration data, assuming the demonstrated actions are optimal. This can lead to overfitting under noisy data, particularly when expressive models are used (e.g., the energy-based model in Implicit BC). To address this, we extend behavior cloning into an iterative process of optimal action estimation within the Interactive Imitation Learning framework. Specifically, we introduce Contrastive policy Learning from Interactive Corrections (CLIC). CLIC leverages human corrections to estimate a set of desired actions and optimizes the policy to select actions from this set. We provide theoretical guarantees for the convergence of the desired action set to optimal actions in both single and multiple optimal action cases. Extensive simulation and real-robot experiments validate CLIC's advantages over existing state-of-the-art methods, including stable training of energy-based models, robustness to feedback noise, and adaptability to diverse feedback types beyond demonstrations. Our code will be publicly available soon.

We show that variational learning naturally induces an adaptive label smoothing where label noise is specialized for each example. Such label-smoothing is useful to handle examples with labeling errors and distribution shifts, but designing a good adaptivity strategy is not always easy. We propose to skip this step and simply use the natural adaptivity induced during the optimization of a variational objective. We show empirical results where a variational algorithm called IVON outperforms traditional label smoothing and yields adaptivity strategies similar to those of an existing approach. By connecting Bayesian methods to label smoothing, our work provides a new way to handle overconfident predictions.

Sampling from unnormalized target distributions is a fundamental yet challenging task in machine learning and statistics. Existing sampling algorithms typically require many iterative steps to produce high-quality samples, leading to high computational costs that limit their practicality in time-sensitive or resource-constrained settings. In this work, we introduce consistent diffusion samplers, a new class of samplers designed to generate high-fidelity samples in a single step. We first develop a distillation algorithm to train a consistent diffusion sampler from a pretrained diffusion model without pre-collecting large datasets of samples. Our algorithm leverages incomplete sampling trajectories and noisy intermediate states directly from the diffusion process. We further propose a method to train a consistent diffusion sampler from scratch, fully amortizing exploration by training a single model that both performs diffusion sampling and skips intermediate steps using a self-consistency loss. Through extensive experiments on a variety of unnormalized distributions, we show that our approach yields high-fidelity samples using less than 1% of the network evaluations required by traditional diffusion samplers.