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 Uncertainty


Adversarially-learned Inference via an Ensemble of Discrete Undirected Graphical Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Undirected graphical models are compact representations of joint probability distributions over random variables. To solve inference tasks of interest, graphical models of arbitrary topology can be trained using empirical risk minimization. However, to solve inference tasks that were not seen during training, these models (EGMs) often need to be re-trained. Instead, we propose an inference-agnostic adversarial training framework which produces an infinitely-large ensemble of graphical models (AGMs). The ensemble is optimized to generate data within the GAN framework, and inference is performed using a finite subset of these models.


Provably and Practically Efficient Adversarial Imitation Learning with General Function Approximation

Neural Information Processing Systems

As a prominent category of imitation learning methods, adversarial imitation learning (AIL) has garnered significant practical success powered by neural network approximation. However, existing theoretical studies on AIL are primarily limited to simplified scenarios such as tabular and linear function approximation and involve complex algorithmic designs that hinder practical implementation, highlighting a gap between theory and practice. In this paper, we explore the theoretical underpinnings of online AIL with general function approximation. We introduce a new method called optimization-based AIL (OPT-AIL), which centers on performing online optimization for reward functions and optimism-regularized Bellman error minimization for Q-value functions. Theoretically, we prove that OPT-AIL achieves polynomial expert sample complexity and interaction complexity for learning near-expert policies.


BMRS: Bayesian Model Reduction for Structured Pruning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Modern neural networks are often massively overparameterized leading to high compute costs during training and at inference. One effective method to improve both the compute and energy efficiency of neural networks while maintaining good performance is structured pruning, where full network structures (e.g. In this work, we propose Bayesian Model Reduction for Structured pruning (BMRS), a fully end-to-end Bayesian method of structured pruning. BMRS is based on two recent methods: Bayesian structured pruning with multiplicative noise, and Bayesian model reduction (BMR), a method which allows efficient comparison of Bayesian models under a change in prior. We present two realizations of BMRS derived from different priors which yield different structured pruning characteristics: 1) BMRSN with the truncated log-normal prior, which offers reliable compression rates and accuracy without the need for tuning any thresholds and 2) BMRSU with the truncated log-uniform prior that can achieve more aggressive compression based on the boundaries of truncation.


Boosting Vision-Language Models with Transduction

Neural Information Processing Systems

Transduction is a powerful paradigm that leverages the structure of unlabeled data to boost predictive accuracy. We present TransCLIP, a novel and computationally efficient transductive approach designed for Vision-Language Models (VLMs). TransCLIP is applicable as a plug-and-play module on top of popular inductive zero- and few-shot models, consistently improving their performances. Our new objective function can be viewed as a regularized maximum-likelihood estimation, constrained by a KL divergence penalty that integrates the text-encoder knowledge and guides the transductive learning process. We further derive an iterative Block Majorize-Minimize (BMM) procedure for optimizing our objective, with guaranteed convergence and decoupled sample-assignment updates, yielding computationally efficient transduction for large-scale datasets.


Neural Conditional Probability for Uncertainty Quantification

Neural Information Processing Systems

We introduce Neural Conditional Probability (NCP), an operator-theoretic approach to learning conditional distributions with a focus on statistical inference tasks. NCP can be used to build conditional confidence regions and extract key statistics such as conditional quantiles, mean, and covariance. It offers streamlined learning via a single unconditional training phase, allowing efficient inference without the need for retraining even when conditioning changes. By leveraging the approximation capabilities of neural networks, NCP efficiently handles a wide variety of complex probability distributions. We provide theoretical guarantees that ensure both optimization consistency and statistical accuracy. In experiments, we show that NCP with a 2-hidden-layer network matches or outperforms leading methods.


Efficient hierarchical Bayesian inference for spatio-temporal regression models in neuroimaging

Neural Information Processing Systems

Several problems in neuroimaging and beyond require inference on the parameters of multi-task sparse hierarchical regression models. Examples include M/EEG inverse problems, neural encoding models for task-based fMRI analyses, and climate science. In these domains, both the model parameters to be inferred and the measurement noise may exhibit a complex spatio-temporal structure. Existing work either neglects the temporal structure or leads to computationally demanding inference schemes. Overcoming these limitations, we devise a novel flexible hierarchical Bayesian framework within which the spatio-temporal dynamics of model parameters and noise are modeled to have Kronecker product covariance structure.


Provably Efficient Reinforcement Learning with Multinomial Logit Function Approximation

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study a new class of MDPs that employs multinomial logit (MNL) function approximation to ensure valid probability distributions over the state space. Despite its significant benefits, incorporating the non-linear function raises substantial challenges in both *statistical* and *computational* efficiency. The best-known result of Hwang and Oh [2023] has achieved an \widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\kappa {-1}dH 2\sqrt{K}) regret upper bound, where \kappa is a problem-dependent quantity, d is the feature dimension, H is the episode length, and K is the number of episodes. However, we observe that \kappa {-1} exhibits polynomial dependence on the number of reachable states, which can be as large as the state space size in the worst case and thus undermines the motivation for function approximation. Additionally, their method requires storing all historical data and the time complexity scales linearly with the episode count, which is computationally expensive. In this work, we propose a statistically efficient algorithm that achieves a regret of \widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(dH 2\sqrt{K} \kappa {-1}d 2H 2), eliminating the dependence on \kappa {-1} in the dominant term for the first time.


A Metalearned Neural Circuit for Nonparametric Bayesian Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

Most applications of machine learning to classification assume a closed set of balanced classes. This is at odds with the real world, where class occurrence statistics often follow a long-tailed power-law distribution and it is unlikely that all classes are seen in a single sample. Nonparametric Bayesian models naturally capture this phenomenon, but have significant practical barriers to widespread adoption, namely implementation complexity and computational inefficiency. To address this, we present a method for extracting the inductive bias from a nonparametric Bayesian model and transferring it to an artificial neural network. By simulating data with a nonparametric Bayesian prior, we can metalearn a sequence model that performs inference over an unlimited set of classes.


Doing Experiments and Revising Rules with Natural Language and Probabilistic Reasoning

Neural Information Processing Systems

We give a model of how to infer natural language rules by doing experiments. We conduct a human-model comparison on aZendo-style task, finding that a critical ingredient for modeling the human data is toassume that humans also consider fuzzy, probabilistic rules, in addition to assumingthat humans perform approximately-Bayesian belief updates. We also comparewith recent algorithms for using LLMs to generate and revise hypotheses, findingthat our online inference method yields higher accuracy at recovering the trueunderlying rule, and provides better support for designing optimal experiments.


Continuous Spatiotemporal Events Decoupling through Spike-based Bayesian Computation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Numerous studies have demonstrated that the cognitive processes of the human brain can be modeled using the Bayesian theorem for probabilistic inference of the external world. Spiking neural networks (SNNs), capable of performing Bayesian computation with greater physiological interpretability, offer a novel approach to distributed information processing in the cortex. However, applying these models to real-world scenarios to harness the advantages of brain-like computation remains a challenge. Recently, bio-inspired sensors with high dynamic range and ultra-high temporal resolution have been widely used in extreme vision scenarios. Event streams, generated by various types of motion, represent spatiotemporal data.