Beyond estimating parameters of interest from data, one of the key goals of statistical inference is to properly quantify uncertainty in these estimates. In Bayesian inference, this uncertainty is provided by the posterior distribution, the computation of which typically involves an intractable high-dimensional integral. Among available approximation methods, sampling-based approaches come with strong theoretical guarantees but scale poorly to large problems, while variational approaches scale well but offer few theoretical guarantees. In particular, variational methods are known to produce overconfident estimates of posterior uncertainty and are typically non-identifiable, with many latent variable configurations generating equivalent predictions. Here, we address these challenges by showing how diffusion-based models (DBMs), which have recently produced state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks, can be repurposed for performing calibrated, identifiable Bayesian inference.

The exploration-exploitation dilemma has been a central challenge in reinforcement learning (RL) with complex model classes. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm, Monotonic Q-Learning with Upper Confidence Bound (MQL-UCB) for RL with general function approximation. Our key algorithmic design includes (1) a general deterministic policy-switching strategy that achieves low switching cost, (2) a monotonic value function structure with carefully controlled function class complexity, and (3) a variance-weighted regression scheme that exploits historical trajectories with high data efficiency. MQL-UCB achieves minimax optimal regret of \tilde{O}(d\sqrt{HK}) when K is sufficiently large and near-optimal policy switching cost of \tilde{O}(dH), with d being the eluder dimension of the function class, H being the planning horizon, and K being the number of episodes.

Reward-free reinforcement learning (RL) is a framework which is suitable for both the batch RL setting and the setting where there are many reward functions of interest. During the exploration phase, an agent collects samples without using a pre-specified reward function. After the exploration phase, a reward function is given, and the agent uses samples collected during the exploration phase to compute a near-optimal policy. Jin et al. [2020] showed that in the tabular setting, the agent only needs to collect polynomial number of samples (in terms of the number states, the number of actions, and the planning horizon) for reward-free RL. However, in practice, the number of states and actions can be large, and thus function approximation schemes are required for generalization.

We give the first polynomial-time, differentially node-private, and robust algorithm for estimating the edge density of Erdős-Rényi random graphs and their generalization, inhomogeneous random graphs. We further prove information-theoretical lower bounds, showing that the error rate of our algorithm is optimal up to logarithmic factors. Previous algorithms incur either exponential running time or suboptimal error rates.Two key ingredients of our algorithm are (1) a new sum-of-squares algorithm for robust edge density estimation, and (2) the reduction from privacy to robustness based on sum-of-squares exponential mechanisms due to Hopkins et al. (STOC 2023).

The majority of language model training builds on imitation learning. It covers pretraining, supervised fine-tuning, and affects the starting conditions for reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). The simplicity and scalability of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for next token prediction led to its role as predominant paradigm. However, the broader field of imitation learning can more effectively utilize the sequential structure underlying autoregressive generation. We focus on investigating the inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) perspective to imitation, extracting rewards and directly optimizing sequences instead of individual token likelihoods and evaluate its benefits for fine-tuning large language models.

When releasing outputs from confidential data, agencies need to balance the analytical usefulness of the released data with the obligation to protect data subjects' confidentiality. For releases satisfying differential privacy, this balance is reflected by the privacy budget, \varepsilon . We provide a framework for setting \varepsilon based on its relationship with Bayesian posterior probabilities of disclosure. The agency responsible for the data release decides how much posterior risk it is willing to accept at various levels of prior risk, which implies a unique \varepsilon . Agencies can evaluate different risk profiles to determine one that leads to an acceptable trade-off in risk and utility.

Estimating the density of a distribution from samples is a fundamental problem in statistics. In many practical settings, the Wasserstein distance is an appropriate error metric for density estimation. For example, when estimating population densities in a geographic region, a small Wasserstein distance means that the estimate is able to capture roughly where the population mass is. In this work we study differentially private density estimation in the Wasserstein distance. We design and analyze instance-optimal algorithms for this problem that can adapt to easy instances.For distributions P over \mathbb{R}, we consider a strong notion of instance-optimality: an algorithm that uniformly achieves the instance-optimal estimation rate is competitive with an algorithm that is told that the distribution is either P or Q_P for some distribution Q_P whose probability density function (pdf) is within a factor of 2 of the pdf of P .

This work explores the challenging problem of molecule design by framing it as a conditional generative modeling task, where target biological properties or desired chemical constraints serve as conditioning variables.We propose the Latent Prompt Transformer (LPT), a novel generative model comprising three components: (1) a latent vector with a learnable prior distribution modeled by a neural transformation of Gaussian white noise; (2) a molecule generation model based on a causal Transformer, which uses the latent vector as a prompt; and (3) a property prediction model that predicts a molecule's target properties and/or constraint values using the latent prompt. LPT can be learned by maximum likelihood estimation on molecule-property pairs. During property optimization, the latent prompt is inferred from target properties and constraints through posterior sampling and then used to guide the autoregressive molecule generation.After initial training on existing molecules and their properties, we adopt an online learning algorithm to progressively shift the model distribution towards regions that support desired target properties. Experiments demonstrate that LPT not only effectively discovers useful molecules across single-objective, multi-objective, and structure-constrained optimization tasks, but also exhibits strong sample efficiency.

Causal models are crucial for understanding complex systems andidentifying causal relationships among variables. Even though causalmodels are extremely popular, conditional probability calculation offormulas involving interventions pose significant challenges.In case of Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs), Pearl assumes autonomy of mechanisms that determine interventions to calculate a range ofprobabilities. We show that by making simple yetoften realistic independence assumptions, it is possible to uniquely estimate the probability of an interventional formula (includingthe well-studied notions of probability of sufficiency and necessity). We discuss when these assumptions are appropriate.Importantly, in many cases of interest, when the assumptions are appropriate,these probability estimates can be evaluated usingobservational data, which carries immense significance in scenarioswhere conducting experiments is impractical or unfeasible.

Q-learning with function approximation is one of the most popular methods in reinforcement learning. Though the idea of using function approximation was proposed at least 60 years ago, even in the simplest setup, i.e, approximating Q-functions with linear functions, it is still an open problem how to design a provably efficient algorithm that learns a near-optimal policy. The key challenges are how to efficiently explore the state space and how to decide when to stop exploring in conjunction with the function approximation scheme. The current paper presents a provably efficient algorithm for Q-learning with linear function approximation. Under certain regularity assumptions, our algorithm, Difference Maximization Q-learning, combined with linear function approximation, returns a near-optimal policy using polynomial number of trajectories.