Uncertainty
Tru-POMDP: Task Planning Under Uncertainty via Tree of Hypotheses and Open-Ended POMDPs
Tang, Wenjing, He, Xinyu, Huang, Yongxi, Xiao, Yunxiao, Lu, Cewu, Cai, Panpan
Task planning under uncertainty is essential for home-service robots operating in the real world. Tasks involve ambiguous human instructions, hidden or unknown object locations, and open-vocabulary object types, leading to significant open-ended uncertainty and a boundlessly large planning space. To address these challenges, we propose Tru-POMDP, a planner that combines structured belief generation using Large Language Models (LLMs) with principled POMDP planning. Tru-POMDP introduces a hierarchical Tree of Hypotheses (TOH), which systematically queries an LLM to construct high-quality particle beliefs over possible world states and human goals. We further formulate an open-ended POMDP model that enables rigorous Bayesian belief tracking and efficient belief-space planning over these LLM-generated hypotheses. Experiments on complex object rearrangement tasks across diverse kitchen environments show that Tru-POMDP significantly outperforms state-of-the-art LLM-based and LLM-tree-search hybrid planners, achieving higher success rates with significantly better plans, stronger robustness to ambiguity and occlusion, and greater planning efficiency.
A Review of Various Datasets for Machine Learning Algorithm-Based Intrusion Detection System: Advances and Challenges
Tripathy, Sudhanshu Sekhar, Behera, Bichitrananda
IDS aims to protect computer networks from security threats by detecting, notifying, and taking appropriate action to prevent illegal access and protect confidential information. As the globe becomes increasingly dependent on technology and automated processes, ensuring secured systems, applications, and networks has become one of the most significant problems of this era. The global web and digital technology have significantly accelerated the evolution of the modern world, necessitating the use of telecommunications and data transfer platforms. Researchers are enhancing the effectiveness of IDS by incorporating popular datasets into machine learning algorithms. IDS, equipped with machine learning classifiers, enhances security attack detection accuracy by identifying normal or abnormal network traffic. This paper explores the methods of capturing and reviewing intrusion detection systems (IDS) and evaluates the challenges existing datasets face. A deluge of research on machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) architecture-based intrusion detection techniques has been conducted in the past ten years on various cybersecurity datasets, including KDDCUP'99, NSL-KDD, UNSW-NB15, CICIDS-2017, and CSE-CIC-IDS2018. We conducted a literature review and presented an in-depth analysis of various intrusion detection methods that use SVM, KNN, DT, LR, NB, RF, XGBOOST, Adaboost, and ANN. We provide an overview of each technique, explaining the role of the classifiers and algorithms used. A detailed tabular analysis highlights the datasets used, classifiers employed, attacks detected, evaluation metrics, and conclusions drawn. This article offers a thorough review for future IDS research.
Approximate Borderline Sampling using Granular-Ball for Classification Tasks
Xie, Qin, Zhang, Qinghua, Xia, Shuyin
Chongqing Key Laboratory of Computational Intelligence Chongqing University of Posts and T elecommunications Chongqing, China d210201029@stu.cqupt.edu.cn Chongqing Key Laboratory of Computational Intelligence Chongqing University of Posts and T elecommunications Chongqing, China zhangqh@cqupt.edu.cn Chongqing Key Laboratory of Computational Intelligence Chongqing University of Posts and T elecommunications Chongqing, China xiasy@cqupt.edu.cn Abstract --Data sampling enhances classifier efficiency and robustness through data compression and quality improvement. Recently, the sampling method based on granular-ball (GB) has shown promising performance in generality and noisy classification tasks. However, some limitations remain, including the absence of borderline sampling strategies and issues with class boundary blurring or shrinking due to overlap between GBs. In this paper, an approximate borderline sampling method using GBs is proposed for classification tasks. First, a restricted diffusion-based GB generation (RD-GBG) method is proposed, which prevents GB overlaps by constrained expansion, preserving precise geometric representation of GBs via redefined ones. Second, based on the concept of heterogeneous nearest neighbor, a GB-based approximate borderline sampling (GBABS) method is proposed, which is the first general sampling method capable of both borderline sampling and improving the quality of class noise datasets. Additionally, since RD-GBG incorporates noise detection and GBABS focuses on borderline samples, GBABS performs outstandingly on class noise datasets without the need for an optimal purity threshold. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methods outperform the GB-based sampling method and several representative sampling methods. Data sampling plays a pivotal role in supervised machine learning, particularly for classification tasks. It offers a multitude of benefits, including reduced computational complexity, balanced class distributions, diminished effects of noise and outliers, alleviation of overfitting, and enhanced model inter-pretability.
Sensitivity-Aware Density Estimation in Multiple Dimensions
Boquet-Pujadas, Aleix, Pla, Pol del Aguila, Unser, Michael
We formulate an optimization problem to estimate probability densities in the context of multidimensional problems that are sampled with uneven probability. It considers detector sensitivity as an heterogeneous density and takes advantage of the computational speed and flexible boundary conditions offered by splines on a grid. We choose to regularize the Hessian of the spline via the nuclear norm to promote sparsity. As a result, the method is spatially adaptive and stable against the choice of the regularization parameter, which plays the role of the bandwidth. We test our computational pipeline on standard densities and provide software. We also present a new approach to PET rebinning as an application of our framework.
A Gibbs Sampler for Efficient Bayesian Inference in Sign-Identified SVARs
Arias, Jonas E., Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., Shin, Minchul
We develop a new algorithm for inference based on structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions. The key insight of our algorithm is to break apart from the accept-reject tradition associated with sign-identified SVARs. We show that embedding an elliptical slice sampling within a Gibbs sampler approach can deliver dramatic gains in speed and turn previously infeasible applications into feasible ones. We provide a tractable example to illustrate the power of the elliptical slice sampling applied to sign-identified SVARs. We demonstrate the usefulness of our algorithm by applying it to a well-known small-SVAR model of the oil market featuring a tight identified set, as well as to a large SVAR model with more than 100 sign restrictions.
Slow Feature Analysis as Variational Inference Objective
Schüler, Merlin, Wiskott, Laurenz
Developing probabilistic perspectives on established mac hine learning algorithms can be a promising endeavor, as it casts methods originating from, for example, geometric or h euristic concepts into a well-understood framework that allows one to make explicit the assumptions and the dependen cies that are inherent in the resulting model. Many methods have been described in this shared language, even spanni ng the broad machine learning paradigms of unsupervised, supervised, and reinforcement learning. This makes it poss ible to compare methods, understand shortcomings, and propose extensions through a rich body of broad research. Furthermore, previous research on a specific method that was generalized in such a way might prove to be useful for the field of probabilistic modeling itself. After all, the mo st efficient methods for probabilistic inference under a mod el are rarely the most general and often leverage the model-spe cific structure (Kalman, 1960; Margossian & Blei, 2024). In this work, a soft variant of Slow Feature Analysis (SFA) (W iskott, 1998; Wiskott & Sejnowski, 2002) is derived using the language of probabilistic inference.
JojoSCL: Shrinkage Contrastive Learning for single-cell RNA sequence Clustering
Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) has revolutionized our understanding of cellular processes by enabling gene expression analysis at the individual cell level. Clustering allows for the identification of cell types and the further discovery of intrinsic patterns in single-cell data. However, the high dimensionality and sparsity of scRNA-seq data continue to challenge existing clustering models. In this paper, we introduce JojoSCL, a novel self-supervised contrastive learning framework for scRNA-seq clustering. By incorporating a shrinkage estimator based on hierarchical Bayesian estimation, which adjusts gene expression estimates towards more reliable cluster centroids to reduce intra-cluster dispersion, and optimized using Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimate (SURE), JojoSCL refines both instance-level and cluster-level contrastive learning. Experiments on ten scRNA-seq datasets substantiate that JojoSCL consistently outperforms prevalent clustering methods, with further validation of its practicality through robustness analysis and ablation studies. JojoSCL's code is available at: https://github.com/ziwenwang28/JojoSCL.
Generative diffusion posterior sampling for informative likelihoods
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods have recently shown successful results for conditional sampling of generative diffusion models. In this paper we propose a new diffusion posterior SMC sampler achieving improved statistical efficiencies, particularly under outlier conditions or highly informative likelihoods. The key idea is to construct an observation path that correlates with the diffusion model and to design the sampler to leverage this correlation for more efficient sampling. Empirical results conclude the efficiency.
Hierarchical Bayesian Knowledge Tracing in Undergraduate Engineering Education
Educators teaching entry-level university engineering modules face the challenge of identifying which topics students find most difficult and how to support diverse student needs effectively. This study demonstrates a rigorous yet interpretable statistical approach -- hierarchical Bayesian modeling -- that leverages detailed student response data to quantify both skill difficulty and individual student abilities. Using a large-scale dataset from an undergraduate Statics course, we identified clear patterns of skill mastery and uncovered distinct student subgroups based on their learning trajectories. Our analysis reveals that certain concepts consistently present challenges, requiring targeted instructional support, while others are readily mastered and may benefit from enrichment activities. Importantly, the hierarchical Bayesian method provides educators with intuitive, reliable metrics without sacrificing predictive accuracy. This approach allows for data-informed decisions, enabling personalized teaching strategies to improve student engagement and success. By combining robust statistical methods with clear interpretability, this study equips educators with actionable insights to better support diverse learner populations.
Agnostic Reinforcement Learning: Foundations and Algorithms
Reinforcement Learning (RL) has demonstrated tremendous empirical success across numerous challenging domains. However, we lack a strong theoretical understanding of the statistical complexity of RL in environments with large state spaces, where function approximation is required for sample-efficient learning. This thesis addresses this gap by rigorously examining the statistical complexity of RL with function approximation from a learning theoretic perspective. Departing from a long history of prior work, we consider the weakest form of function approximation, called agnostic policy learning, in which the learner seeks to find the best policy in a given class $Π$, with no guarantee that $Π$ contains an optimal policy for the underlying task. We systematically explore agnostic policy learning along three key axes: environment access -- how a learner collects data from the environment; coverage conditions -- intrinsic properties of the underlying MDP measuring the expansiveness of state-occupancy measures for policies in the class $Π$, and representational conditions -- structural assumptions on the class $Π$ itself. Within this comprehensive framework, we (1) design new learning algorithms with theoretical guarantees and (2) characterize fundamental performance bounds of any algorithm. Our results reveal significant statistical separations that highlight the power and limitations of agnostic policy learning.