Modern data marketplaces and data sharing consortia increasingly rely on incentive mechanisms to encourage agents to contribute data. However, schemes that reward agents based on the quantity of submitted data are vulnerable to manipulation, as agents may submit fabricated or low-quality data to inflate their rewards. Prior work has proposed comparing each agent's data against others' to promote honesty: when others contribute genuine data, the best way to minimize discrepancy is to do the same. Yet prior implementations of this idea rely on very strong assumptions about the data distribution (e.g. Gaussian), limiting their applicability. In this work, we develop reward mechanisms based on a novel, two-sample test inspired by the Cramér-von Mises statistic. Our methods strictly incentivize agents to submit more genuine data, while disincentivizing data fabrication and other types of untruthful reporting. We establish that truthful reporting constitutes a (possibly approximate) Nash equilibrium in both Bayesian and prior-agnostic settings. We theoretically instantiate our method in three canonical data sharing problems and show that it relaxes key assumptions made by prior work. Empirically, we demonstrate that our mechanism incentivizes truthful data sharing via simulations and on real-world language and image data.

We introduce Interactive Bayesian Distributional Robustness (IBDR), a novel Bayesian inference framework that allows modeling the interactions between particles, thereby enhancing ensemble quality through increased particle diversity. IBDR is grounded in a generalized theoretical framework that connects the distributional population loss with the approximate posterior, motivating a practical dual optimization procedure that enforces distributional robustness while fostering particle diversity. We evaluate IBDR's performance against various baseline methods using the VTAB-1K benchmark and the common reasoning language task. The results consistently show that IBDR outperforms these baselines, underscoring its effectiveness in real-world applications.

The pursuit of universal black-box optimization (BBO) algorithms is a longstanding goal. However, unlike domains such as language or vision, where scaling structured data has driven generalization, progress in offline BBO remains hindered by the lack of unified representations for heterogeneous numerical spaces. Thus, existing offline BBO approaches are constrained to single-task and fixed-dimensional settings, failing to achieve cross-domain universal optimization. Recent advances in language models (LMs) offer a promising path forward: their embeddings capture latent relationships in a unifying way, enabling universal optimization across different data types possible. In this paper, we discuss multiple potential approaches, including an end-to-end learning framework in the form of next-token prediction, as well as prioritizing the learning of latent spaces with strong representational capabilities. To validate the effectiveness of these methods, we collect offline BBO tasks and data from open-source academic works for training. Experiments demonstrate the universality and effectiveness of our proposed methods. Our findings suggest that unifying language model priors and learning string embedding space can overcome traditional barriers in universal BBO, paving the way for general-purpose BBO algorithms. The code is provided at https://github.com/lamda-bbo/universal-offline-bbo.

Machine Learning (ML) models are increasingly integrated into safety-critical systems, such as autonomous vehicle platooning, to enable real-time decision-making. However, their inherent imperfection introduces a new class of failure: reasoning failures often triggered by distributional shifts between operational and training data. Traditional safety assessment methods, which rely on design artefacts or code, are ill-suited for ML components that learn behaviour from data. SafeML was recently proposed to dynamically detect such shifts and assign confidence levels to the reasoning of ML-based components. Building on this, we introduce a probabilistic safety assurance framework that integrates SafeML with Bayesian Networks (BNs) to model ML failures as part of a broader causal safety analysis. This allows for dynamic safety evaluation and system adaptation under uncertainty. We demonstrate the approach on an simulated automotive platooning system with traffic sign recognition.

--Evolving fuzzy systems build and adapt fuzzy models--such as predictors and controllers--by incrementally updating their rule-base structure from data streams. On the occasion of the 60-year anniversary of fuzzy set theory, commemorated during the Fuzz-IEEE 2025 event, this brief paper revisits the historical development and core contributions of classical fuzzy and adaptive modeling and control frameworks. It then highlights the emergence and significance of evolving intelligent systems in fuzzy modeling and control, emphasizing their advantages in handling nonstationary environments. Key challenges and future directions are discussed, including safety, interpretability, and principled structural evolution. Research in fuzzy modeling, control, and applications has grown rapidly since Zadeh's seminal work in 1965 [1], evolving into a vast and multifaceted field.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) have exhibited the capacity of enhancing reasoning performance via internal test-time scaling. Building upon this, a promising direction is to further scale test-time compute to unlock even greater reasoning capabilities. However, as we push these scaling boundaries, systematically understanding the practical limits and achieving optimal resource allocation becomes a critical challenge. In this paper, we investigate the scaling plateau of test-time scaling and introduce the Test-Time Scaling Performance Model (TTSPM). We theoretically analyze two fundamental paradigms for such extended scaling, parallel scaling and sequential scaling, from a probabilistic modeling perspective. Our primary contribution is the derivation of the saturation point on the scaling budget for both strategies, identifying thresholds beyond which additional computation yields diminishing returns. Remarkably, despite their distinct mechanisms, both paradigms converge to a unified mathematical structure in their upper bounds. We empirically validate our theoretical findings on challenging reasoning benchmarks, including AIME, MATH-500, and GPQA, demonstrating the practical utility of these bounds for test-time resource allocation. We hope that this work provides insights into the cost-benefit trade-offs of test-time scaling, guiding the development of more resource-efficient inference strategies for large reasoning models.

Several papers have delved into the challenges of human-AI-robot co-learning and co-adaptation. It has been noted that the terminology used to describe this collaborative relationship in existing studies needs to be more consistent. For example, the prefix "co" is used interchangeably to represent both "collaborative" and "mutual," and the terms "co-learning" and "co-adaptation" are sometimes used interchangeably. However, they can reflect subtle differences in the focus of the studies. The current scoping review's primary research question (RQ1) aims to gather existing papers discussing this collaboration pattern and examine the terms researchers use to describe this human-agent relationship. Given the relative newness of this area of study, we are also keen on exploring the specific types of intelligent agents and task domains that have been considered in existing research (RQ2). This exploration is significant as it can shed light on the diversity of human-agent interactions, from one-time to continuous learning/adaptation scenarios. It can also help us understand the dynamics of human-agent interactions in different task domains, guiding our expectations towards research situated in dynamic, complex domains. Our third objective (RQ3) is to investigate the cognitive theories and frameworks that have been utilized in existing studies to measure human-agent co-learning and co-adaptation. This investigation is crucial as it can help us understand the theoretical underpinnings of human-agent collaboration and adaptation, and it can also guide us in identifying any new frameworks proposed specifically for this type of relationship.

Recent advances have established the identifiability of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) under additive noise models (ANMs), spurring the development of various causal discovery methods. However, most existing methods make restrictive model assumptions, rely heavily on general independence tests, or require substantial computational time. To address these limitations, we propose a sequential procedure to orient undirected edges in a completed partial DAG (CPDAG), representing an equivalence class of DAGs, by leveraging the pairwise additive noise model (PANM) to identify their causal directions. We prove that this procedure can recover the true causal DAG assuming a restricted ANM. Building on this result, we develop a novel constraint-based algorithm for learning causal DAGs under nonlinear ANMs. Given an estimated CPDAG, we develop a ranking procedure that sorts undirected edges by their adherence to the PANM, which defines an evaluation order of the edges. To determine the edge direction, we devise a statistical test that compares the log-likelihood values, evaluated with respect to the competing directions, of a sub-graph comprising just the candidate nodes and their identified parents in the partial DAG. We further establish the structural learning consistency of our algorithm in the large-sample limit. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method is computationally efficient, robust to model misspecification, and consistently outperforms many existing nonlinear DAG learning methods.

We consider the problem of sampling from a probability distribution $π$. It is well known that this can be written as an optimisation problem over the space of probability distribution in which we aim to minimise the Kullback--Leibler divergence from $π$. We consider several partial differential equations (PDEs) whose solution is a minimiser of the Kullback--Leibler divergence from $π$ and connect them to well-known Monte Carlo algorithms. We focus in particular on PDEs obtained by considering the Wasserstein--Fisher--Rao geometry over the space of probabilities and show that these lead to a natural implementation using importance sampling and sequential Monte Carlo. We propose a novel algorithm to approximate the Wasserstein--Fisher--Rao flow of the Kullback--Leibler divergence which empirically outperforms the current state-of-the-art. We study tempered versions of these PDEs obtained by replacing the target distribution with a geometric mixture of initial and target distribution and show that these do not lead to a convergence speed up.

We introduce TimeMCL, a method leveraging the Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) paradigm to forecast multiple plausible time series futures. Our approach employs a neural network with multiple heads and utilizes the Winner-Takes-All (WTA) loss to promote diversity among predictions. MCL has recently gained attention due to its simplicity and ability to address ill-posed and ambiguous tasks. We propose an adaptation of this framework for time-series forecasting, presenting it as an efficient method to predict diverse futures, which we relate to its implicit quantization objective. We provide insights into our approach using synthetic data and evaluate it on real-world time series, demonstrating its promising performance at a light computational cost.