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 Uncertainty


Improving LoRA with Variational Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian methods have recently been used to improve LoRA finetuning and, although they improve calibration, their effect on other metrics (such as accuracy) is marginal and can sometimes even be detrimental. Moreover, Bayesian methods also increase computational overheads and require additional tricks for them to work well. Here, we fix these issues by using a recently proposed variational algorithm called IVON. We show that IVON is easy to implement and has similar costs to AdamW, and yet it can also drastically improve many metrics by using a simple posterior pruning technique. We present extensive results on billion-scale LLMs (Llama and Qwen series) going way beyond the scale of existing applications of IVON. For example, we finetune a Llama-3.2-3B model on a set of commonsense reasoning tasks and improve accuracy over AdamW by 1.3% and reduce ECE by 5.4%, outperforming AdamW and other recent Bayesian methods like Laplace-LoRA and BLoB. Overall, our results show that variational learning with IVON can effectively improve LoRA finetuning.


Knowledge Adaptation as Posterior Correction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Adaptation is the holy grail of intelligence, but even the best AI models (like GPT) lack the adaptivity of toddlers. So the question remains: how can machines adapt quickly? Despite a lot of progress on model adaptation to facilitate continual and federated learning, as well as model merging, editing, unlearning, etc., little is known about the mechanisms by which machines can naturally learn to adapt in a similar way as humans and animals. Here, we show that all such adaptation methods can be seen as different ways of `correcting' the approximate posteriors. More accurate posteriors lead to smaller corrections, which in turn imply quicker adaptation. The result is obtained by using a dual-perspective of the Bayesian Learning Rule of Khan and Rue (2023) where interference created during adaptation is characterized by the natural-gradient mismatch over the past data. We present many examples to demonstrate the use of posterior-correction as a natural mechanism for the machines to learn to adapt quickly.


Situational-Constrained Sequential Resources Allocation via Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sequential Resource Allocation with situational constraints presents a significant challenge in real-world applications, where resource demands and priorities are context-dependent. This paper introduces a novel framework, SCRL, to address this problem. We formalize situational constraints as logic implications and develop a new algorithm that dynamically penalizes constraint violations. To handle situational constraints effectively, we propose a probabilistic selection mechanism to overcome limitations of traditional constraint reinforcement learning (CRL) approaches. We evaluate SCRL across two scenarios: medical resource allocation during a pandemic and pesticide distribution in agriculture. Experiments demonstrate that SCRL outperforms existing baselines in satisfying constraints while maintaining high resource efficiency, showcasing its potential for real-world, context-sensitive decision-making tasks.


Beyond the Plane: A 3D Representation of Human Personal Space for Socially-Aware Robotics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The increasing presence of robots in human environments requires them to exhibit socially appropriate behavior, adhering to social norms. A critical aspect in this context is the concept of personal space, a psychological boundary around an individual that influences their comfort based on proximity. This concept extends to human-robot interaction, where robots must respect personal space to avoid causing discomfort. While much research has focused on modeling personal space in two dimensions, almost none have considered the vertical dimension. In this work, we propose a novel three-dimensional personal space model that integrates both height (introducing a discomfort function along the Z-axis) and horizontal proximity (via a classic XY-plane formulation) to quantify discomfort. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to compute discomfort in 3D space at any robot component's position, considering the person's configuration and height.


Graph-Convolutional-Beta-VAE for Synthetic Abdominal Aorta Aneurysm Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Synthetic data generation plays a crucial role in medical research by mitigating privacy concerns and enabling large-scale patient data analysis. This study presents a beta-Variational Autoencoder Graph Convolutional Neural Network framework for generating synthetic Abdominal Aorta Aneurysms (AAA). Using a small real-world dataset, our approach extracts key anatomical features and captures complex statistical relationships within a compact disentangled latent space. To address data limitations, low-impact data augmentation based on Procrustes analysis was employed, preserving anatomical integrity. The generation strategies, both deterministic and stochastic, manage to enhance data diversity while ensuring realism. Compared to PCA-based approaches, our model performs more robustly on unseen data by capturing complex, nonlinear anatomical variations. This enables more comprehensive clinical and statistical analyses than the original dataset alone. The resulting synthetic AAA dataset preserves patient privacy while providing a scalable foundation for medical research, device testing, and computational modeling.


Surprise Calibration for Better In-Context Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In-context learning (ICL) has emerged as a powerful paradigm for task adaptation in large language models (LLMs), where models infer underlying task structures from a few demonstrations. However, ICL remains susceptible to biases that arise from prior knowledge and contextual demonstrations, which can degrade the performance of LLMs. Existing bias calibration methods typically apply fixed class priors across all inputs, limiting their efficacy in dynamic ICL settings where the context for each query differs. To address these limitations, we adopt implicit sequential Bayesian inference as a framework for interpreting ICL, identify "surprise" as an informative signal for class prior shift, and introduce a novel method--Surprise Calibration (SC). SC leverages the notion of surprise to capture the temporal dynamics of class priors, providing a more adaptive and computationally efficient solution for in-context learning. We empirically demonstrate the superiority of SC over existing bias calibration techniques across a range of benchmark natural language processing tasks.


GAdaBoost: An Efficient and Robust AdaBoost Algorithm Based on Granular-Ball Structure

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) faces significant challenges posed by label noise, especially in multiclass classification tasks. Existing methods either lack mechanisms to handle label noise effectively or suffer from high computational costs due to redundant data usage. Inspired by granular computing, this paper proposes granular adaptive boosting (GAdaBoost), a novel two-stage framework comprising a data granulation stage and an adaptive boosting stage, to enhance efficiency and robustness under noisy conditions. To validate its feasibility, an extension of SAMME, termed GAdaBoost.SA, is proposed. Specifically, first, a granular-ball generation method is designed to compress data while preserving diversity and mitigating label noise. Second, the granular ball-based SAMME algorithm focuses on granular balls rather than individual samples, improving efficiency and reducing sensitivity to noise. Experimental results on some noisy datasets show that the proposed approach achieves superior robustness and efficiency compared with existing methods, demonstrating that this work effectively extends AdaBoost and SAMME.


Arbitrarily Applicable Same/Opposite Relational Responding with NARS

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Same/opposite relational responding, a fundamental aspect of human symbolic cognition, allows the flexible generalization of stimulus relationships based on minimal experience. In this study, we demonstrate the emergence of \textit{arbitrarily applicable} same/opposite relational responding within the Non-Axiomatic Reasoning System (NARS), a computational cognitive architecture designed for adaptive reasoning under uncertainty. Specifically, we extend NARS with an implementation of \textit{acquired relations}, enabling the system to explicitly derive both symmetric (mutual entailment) and novel relational combinations (combinatorial entailment) from minimal explicit training in a contextually controlled matching-to-sample (MTS) procedure. Experimental results show that NARS rapidly internalizes explicitly trained relational rules and robustly demonstrates derived relational generalizations based on arbitrary contextual cues. Importantly, derived relational responding in critical test phases inherently combines both mutual and combinatorial entailments, such as deriving same-relations from multiple explicitly trained opposite-relations. Internal confidence metrics illustrate strong internalization of these relational principles, closely paralleling phenomena observed in human relational learning experiments. Our findings underscore the potential for integrating nuanced relational learning mechanisms inspired by learning psychology into artificial general intelligence frameworks, explicitly highlighting the arbitrary and context-sensitive relational capabilities modeled within NARS.


Markov Regime-Switching Intelligent Driver Model for Interpretable Car-Following Behavior

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate and interpretable car-following models are essential for traffic simulation and autonomous vehicle development. However, classical models like the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM) are fundamentally limited by their parsimonious and single-regime structure. They fail to capture the multi-modal nature of human driving, where a single driving state (e.g., speed, relative speed, and gap) can elicit many different driver actions. This forces the model to average across distinct behaviors, reducing its fidelity and making its parameters difficult to interpret. To overcome this, we introduce a regime-switching framework that allows driving behavior to be governed by different IDM parameter sets, each corresponding to an interpretable behavioral mode. This design enables the model to dynamically switch between interpretable behavioral modes, rather than averaging across diverse driving contexts. We instantiate the framework using a Factorial Hidden Markov Model with IDM dynamics (FHMM-IDM), which explicitly separates intrinsic driving regimes (e.g., aggressive acceleration, steady-state following) from external traffic scenarios (e.g., free-flow, congestion, stop-and-go) through two independent latent Markov processes. Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to jointly estimate the regime-specific parameters, transition dynamics, and latent state trajectories. Experiments on the HighD dataset demonstrate that FHMM-IDM uncovers interpretable structure in human driving, effectively disentangling internal driver actions from contextual traffic conditions and revealing dynamic regime-switching patterns. This framework provides a tractable and principled solution to modeling context-dependent driving behavior under uncertainty, offering improvements in the fidelity of traffic simulations, the efficacy of safety analyses, and the development of more human-centric ADAS.


Expressive Score-Based Priors for Distribution Matching with Geometry-Preserving Regularization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Distribution matching (DM) is a versatile domain-invariant representation learning technique that has been applied to tasks such as fair classification, domain adaptation, and domain translation. Non-parametric DM methods struggle with scalability and adversarial DM approaches suffer from instability and mode collapse. While likelihood-based methods are a promising alternative, they often impose unnecessary biases through fixed priors or require explicit density models (e.g., flows) that can be challenging to train. We address this limitation by introducing a novel approach to training likelihood-based DM using expressive score-based prior distributions. Our key insight is that gradient-based DM training only requires the prior's score function -- not its density -- allowing us to train the prior via denoising score matching. This approach eliminates biases from fixed priors (e.g., in VAEs), enabling more effective use of geometry-preserving regularization, while avoiding the challenge of learning an explicit prior density model (e.g., a flow-based prior). Our method also demonstrates better stability and computational efficiency compared to other diffusion-based priors (e.g., LSGM). Furthermore, experiments demonstrate superior performance across multiple tasks, establishing our score-based method as a stable and effective approach to distribution matching. Source code available at https://github.com/inouye-lab/SAUB.