Group structures are common in regression analysis. They can appear in the form of categorical predictors represented by groups of dummy variables or in the context of additive modeling, where each predictor can be expressed as a set of basis functions forming a group; in applications such as gene expression analysis and financial market modeling, groupings exist naturally in the data. For instance, genes that influence similar traits form groups in gene expression data, while stocks from the same sector form groups in financial data. In these scenarios, group shrinkage plays an important role: when there is insufficient evidence to suggest the significance of predictors within a group, the entire group of predictors is shrunk towards zero. This reduces the noise from individual "spurious predictors", which tend to appear more frequently in high-dimensional settings, and decreases model complexity, thereby reducing the risk of overfitting. 1 Within the Bayesian framework, there has been extensive research focusing on the application of continuous shrinkage priors for linear regression problems involving group predictor variables. Traditional approaches, such as the group lasso[31, 24], the group bridge [16], and the group horseshoe [29] primarily apply shrinkage at the group level and do not consider within-group shrinkage.

Neural estimators are simulation-based estimators for the parameters of a family of statistical models, which build a direct mapping from the sample to the parameter vector. They benefit from the versatility of available network architectures and efficient training methods developed in the field of deep learning. Neural estimators are amortized in the sense that, once trained, they can be applied to any new data set with almost no computational cost. While many papers have shown very good performance of these methods in simulation studies and real-world applications, so far no statistical guarantees are available to support these observations theoretically. In this work, we study the risk of neural estimators by decomposing it into several terms that can be analyzed separately. We formulate easy-to-check assumptions ensuring that each term converges to zero, and we verify them for popular applications of neural estimators. Our results provide a general recipe to derive theoretical guarantees also for broader classes of architectures and estimation problems.

Parameter estimation is a foundational step in statistical modeling, enabling us to extract knowledge from data and apply it effectively. Bayesian estimation of parameters incorporates prior beliefs with observed data to infer distribution parameters probabilistically and robustly. Moreover, it provides full posterior distributions, allowing uncertainty quantification and regularization, especially useful in small or truncated samples. Utilizing the left-truncated log-logistic (LTLL) distribution is particularly well-suited for modeling time-to-event data where observations are subject to a known lower bound such as precipitation data and cancer survival times. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach for estimating the parameters of the LTLL distribution with a fixed truncation point \( x_L > 0 \). Given a random variable \( X \sim LL(α, β; x_L) \), where \( α> 0 \) is the scale parameter and \( β> 0 \) is the shape parameter, the likelihood function is derived based on a truncated sample \( X_1, X_2, \dots, X_N \) with \( X_i > x_L \). We assume independent prior distributions for the parameters, and the posterior inference is conducted via Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, specifically using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to obtain posterior estimates \( \hatα \) and \( \hatβ \). Through simulation studies and real-world applications, we demonstrate that Bayesian estimation provides more stable and reliable parameter estimates, particularly when the likelihood surface is irregular due to left truncation. The results highlight the advantages of Bayesian inference outperform the estimation of parameter uncertainty in truncated distributions for time to event data analysis.

Large language models excel at generating fluent text but frequently struggle with structured reasoning involving temporal constraints, causal relationships, and probabilistic reasoning. To address these limitations, we propose Temporal Causal Probabilistic Description Logic (T-CPDL), an integrated framework that extends traditional Description Logic with temporal interval operators, explicit causal relationships, and probabilistic annotations. We present two distinct variants of T-CPDL: one capturing qualitative temporal relationships through Allen's interval algebra, and another variant enriched with explicit timestamped causal assertions. Both variants share a unified logical structure, enabling complex reasoning tasks ranging from simple temporal ordering to nuanced probabilistic causation. Empirical evaluations on temporal reasoning and causal inference benchmarks confirm that T-CPDL substantially improves inference accuracy, interpretability, and confidence calibration of language model outputs. By delivering transparent reasoning paths and fine-grained temporal and causal semantics, T-CPDL significantly enhances the capability of language models to support robust, explainable, and trustworthy decision-making. This work also lays the groundwork for developing advanced Logic-Retrieval-Augmented Generation (Logic-RAG) frameworks, potentially boosting the reasoning capabilities and efficiency of knowledge graph-enhanced RAG systems.

This paper outlines a comprehensive theoretical and architectural framework for constructing epistemically grounded artificial intelligence systems capable of propositional commitment, metacognitive reasoning, contradiction detection, and normative truth maintenance. Moving beyond the constraints of stochastic language generation, we propose a model in which artificial agents engage in structured, rule-governed reasoning that adheres to explicit epistemic norms. The approach integrates insights from epistemology, formal logic, inferential semantics, knowledge graph structuring, probabilistic justification, and immutable blockchain evidence to create systems that do not merely simulate knowledge, but operate under explicit, verifiable constraints on belief, justification, and truth. We begin with an analysis of epistemic norms in artificial reasoning, contrasting evi-dentialist, Bayesian, and logical foundations, and establishing a requirement for internal consistency and constraint against falsehood. Central to the proposed system is a prohibition against internal deception: no model component may assert what it internally contradicts.

Deformable object manipulation is critical to many real-world robotic applications, ranging from surgical robotics and soft material handling in manufacturing to household tasks like laundry folding. At the core of this important robotic field is shape servoing, a task focused on controlling deformable objects into desired shapes. The shape servoing formulation requires the specification of a goal shape. However, most prior works in shape servoing rely on impractical goal shape acquisition methods, such as laborious domain-knowledge engineering or manual manipulation. DefGoalNet previously posed the current state-of-the-art solution to this problem, which learns deformable object goal shapes directly from a small number of human demonstrations. However, it significantly struggles in multi-modal settings, where multiple distinct goal shapes can all lead to successful task completion. As a deterministic model, DefGoalNet collapses these possibilities into a single averaged solution, often resulting in an unusable goal. In this paper, we address this problem by developing DefFusionNet, a novel neural network that leverages the diffusion probabilistic model to learn a distribution over all valid goal shapes rather than predicting a single deterministic outcome. This enables the generation of diverse goal shapes and avoids the averaging artifacts. We demonstrate our method's effectiveness on robotic tasks inspired by both manufacturing and surgical applications, both in simulation and on a physical robot. Our work is the first generative model capable of producing a diverse, multi-modal set of deformable object goals for real-world robotic applications.

The reliance on distributed renewable energy has increased recently. As a result, power electronic-based distributed generators replaced synchronous generators which led to a change in the dynamic characteristics of the microgrid. Most critically, they reduced system inertia and damping. Virtual synchronous generators emulated in power electronics, which mimic the dynamic behaviour of synchronous generators, are meant to fix this problem. However, fixed virtual synchronous generator parameters cannot guarantee a frequency regulation within the acceptable tolerance range. Conversely, a dynamic adjustment of these virtual parameters promises robust solution with stable frequency. This paper proposes a method to adapt the inertia, damping, and droop parameters dynamically through a fuzzy neural network controller. This controller trains itself online to choose appropriate values for these virtual parameters. The proposed method can be applied to a typical AC microgrid by considering the penetration and impact of renewable energy sources. We study the system in a MATLAB/Simulink model and validate it experimentally in real time using hardware-in-the-loop based on an embedded ARM system (SAM3X8E, Cortex-M3). Compared to traditional and fuzzy logic controller methods, the results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly reduces the frequency deviation to less than 0.03 Hz and shortens the stabilizing/recovery time.

The wisdom of crowds is an umbrella term for phenomena suggesting that the collective judgment or decision of a large group can be more accurate than the individual judgments or decisions of the group members. A well-known example illustrating this concept is the competition at a country fair described by Galton, where the median value of the individual guesses about the weight of an ox resulted in an astonishingly accurate estimate of the actual weight. This phenomenon resembles classical results in probability theory and relies on independent decision-making. The accuracy of the group's final decision can be significantly reduced if the final agents' opinions are driven by a few influential agents. In this paper, we consider a group of agents who initially possess uncorrelated and unbiased noisy measurements of a common state of the world. Assume these agents iteratively update their estimates according to a simple non-Bayesian learning rule, commonly known in mathematical sociology as the French-DeGroot dynamics or iterative opinion pooling. As a result of this iterative distributed averaging process, each agent arrives at an asymptotic estimate of the state of the world, with the variance of this estimate determined by the matrix of weights the agents assign to each other. Every agent aims at minimizing the variance of her asymptotic estimate of the state of the world; however, such variance is also influenced by the weights allocated by other agents. To achieve the best possible estimate, the agents must then solve a game-theoretic, multi-objective optimization problem defined by the available sets of influence weights. We characterize both the Pareto frontier and the set of Nash equilibria in the resulting game. Additionally, we examine asynchronous best-response dynamics for the group of agents and prove their convergence to the set of strict Nash equilibria.

We augment Assumption Based Argumentation (ABA for short) with weighted argumentation. In a nutshell, we assign weights to arguments and then derive the weight of attacks between ABA arguments. We illustrate our proposal through running examples in the field of ethical reasoning, and present an implementation based on Answer Set Programming.

High-quality training data is critical to the performance of machine learning models, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs). However, obtaining real, high-quality data can be challenging, especially for smaller organizations and early-stage startups. Synthetic data generators provide a promising solution by replicating the statistical and structural properties of real data while preserving privacy and scalability. This study evaluates the performance of six tabular synthetic data generators from two widely used open-source libraries: SDV (Gaussian Copula, CTGAN, TVAE) and Synthicity (Bayesian Network, CTGAN, TVAE). Using a real-world dataset from the UCI Machine Learning Repository, comprising energy consumption and environmental variables from Belgium, we simulate a low-data regime by training models on only 1,000 rows. Each generator is then tasked with producing synthetic datasets under two conditions: a 1:1 (1,000 rows) and a 1:10 (10,000 rows) input-output ratio. Evaluation is conducted using two criteria: statistical similarity, measured via classical statistics and distributional metrics; and predictive utility, assessed using a "Train on Synthetic, Test on Real" approach with four regression models. While statistical similarity remained consistent across models in both scenarios, predictive utility declined notably in the 1:10 case. The Bayesian Network from Synthicity achieved the highest fidelity in both scenarios, while TVAE from SDV performed best in predictive tasks under the 1:10 setting. Although no significant performance gap was found between the two libraries, SDV stands out for its superior documentation and ease of use, making it more accessible for practitioners.