Uncertainty
A New Perspective On AI Safety Through Control Theory Methodologies
Ullrich, Lars, Zimmer, Walter, Greer, Ross, Graichen, Knut, Knoll, Alois C., Trivedi, Mohan
While artificial intelligence (AI) is advancing rapidly and mastering increasingly complex problems with astonishing performance, the safety assurance of such systems is a major concern. Particularly in the context of safety-critical, real-world cyber-physical systems, AI promises to achieve a new level of autonomy but is hampered by a lack of safety assurance. While data-driven control takes up recent developments in AI to improve control systems, control theory in general could be leveraged to improve AI safety. Therefore, this article outlines a new perspective on AI safety based on an interdisciplinary interpretation of the underlying data-generation process and the respective abstraction by AI systems in a system theory-inspired and system analysis-driven manner. In this context, the new perspective, also referred to as data control, aims to stimulate AI engineering to take advantage of existing safety analysis and assurance in an interdisciplinary way to drive the paradigm of data control. Following a top-down approach, a generic foundation for safety analysis and assurance is outlined at an abstract level that can be refined for specific AI systems and applications and is prepared for future innovation.
When Additive Noise Meets Unobserved Mediators: Bivariate Denoising Diffusion for Causal Discovery
Meier, Dominik, Hiremath, Sujai, Ghosal, Promit, Gan, Kyra
Distinguishing cause and effect from bivariate observational data is a foundational problem in many disciplines, but challenging without additional assumptions. Additive noise models (ANMs) are widely used to enable sample-efficient bivariate causal discovery. However, conventional ANM-based methods fail when unobserved mediators corrupt the causal relationship between variables. This paper makes three key contributions: first, we rigorously characterize why standard ANM approaches break down in the presence of unmeasured mediators. Second, we demonstrate that prior solutions for hidden mediation are brittle in finite sample settings, limiting their practical utility. To address these gaps, we propose Bivariate Denoising Diffusion (BiDD) for causal discovery, a method designed to handle latent noise introduced by unmeasured mediators. Unlike prior methods that infer directionality through mean squared error loss comparisons, our approach introduces a novel independence test statistic: during the noising and denoising processes for each variable, we condition on the other variable as input and evaluate the independence of the predicted noise relative to this input. We prove asymptotic consistency of BiDD under the ANM, and conjecture that it performs well under hidden mediation. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate consistent performance, outperforming existing methods in mediator-corrupted settings while maintaining strong performance in mediator-free settings.
Data Can Speak for Itself: Quality-guided Utilization of Wireless Synthetic Data
Gong, Chen, Liang, Bo, Gao, Wei, Xu, Chenren
Generative models have gained significant attention for their ability to produce realistic synthetic data that supplements the quantity of real-world datasets. While recent studies show performance improvements in wireless sensing tasks by incorporating all synthetic data into training sets, the quality of synthetic data remains unpredictable and the resulting performance gains are not guaranteed. To address this gap, we propose tractable and generalizable metrics to quantify quality attributes of synthetic data - affinity and diversity. Our assessment reveals prevalent affinity limitation in current wireless synthetic data, leading to mislabeled data and degraded task performance. We attribute the quality limitation to generative models' lack of awareness of untrained conditions and domain-specific processing. To mitigate these issues, we introduce SynCheck, a quality-guided synthetic data utilization scheme that refines synthetic data quality during task model training. Our evaluation demonstrates that SynCheck consistently outperforms quality-oblivious utilization of synthetic data, and achieves 4.3% performance improvement even when the previous utilization degrades performance by 13.4%.
Double-Diffusion: Diffusion Conditioned Diffusion Probabilistic Model For Air Quality Prediction
Dong, Hanlin, Prabowo, Arian, Xue, Hao, Salim, Flora D.
Air quality prediction is a challenging forecasting task due to its spatio-temporal complexity and the inherent dynamics as well as uncertainty. Most of the current models handle these two challenges by applying Graph Neural Networks or known physics principles, and quantifying stochasticity through probabilistic networks like Diffusion models. Nevertheless, finding the right balancing point between the certainties and uncertainties remains an open question. Therefore, we propose Double-Diffusion, a novel diffusion probabilistic model that harnesses the power of known physics to guide air quality forecasting with stochasticity. To the best of our knowledge, while precedents have been made of using conditional diffusion models to predict air pollution, this is the first attempt to use physics as a conditional generative approach for air quality prediction. Along with a sampling strategy adopted from image restoration and a new denoiser architecture, Double-Diffusion ranks first in most evaluation scenarios across two real-life datasets compared with other probabilistic models, it also cuts inference time by 50% to 30% while enjoying an increase between 3-12% in Continuous Ranked Probabilistic Score (CRPS).
Scalable Structure Learning of Bayesian Networks by Learning Algorithm Ensembles
Liu, Shengcai, Ou-yang, Hui, Wang, Zhiyuan, Chen, Cheng, Cai, Qijun, Ong, Yew-Soon, Tang, Ke
--Learning the structure of Bayesian networks (BNs) from data is challenging, especially for datasets involving a large number of variables. The recently proposed divide-and-conquer (D&D) strategies present a promising approach for learning large BNs. However, they still face a main issue of unstable learning accuracy across subproblems. In this work, we introduce the idea of employing structure learning ensemble (SLE), which combines multiple BN structure learning algorithms, to consistently achieve high learning accuracy. We further propose an automatic approach called Auto-SLE for learning near-optimal SLEs, addressing the challenge of manually designing high-quality SLEs. The learned SLE is then integrated into a D&D method. Extensive experiments firmly show the superiority of our method over D&D methods with single BN structure learning algorithm in learning large BNs, achieving accuracy improvement usually by 30% 225% on datasets involving 10,000 variables. These results indicate the significant potential of employing (automatic learning of) SLEs for scalable BN structure learning. Learning the structure of Bayesian networks (BNs) [1] from data has attracted much research interest, due to its wide applications in machine learning, statistical modeling, and causal inference [2]-[4].
Overcoming Dimensional Factorization Limits in Discrete Diffusion Models through Quantum Joint Distribution Learning
Chen, Chuangtao, Zhao, Qinglin, Zhou, MengChu, Niyato, Dusit, He, Zhimin, Situ, Haozhen
Discrete diffusion models represent a significant advance in generative modeling, demonstrating remarkable success in synthesizing complex, high-quality discrete data. However, to avoid exponential computational costs, they typically rely on calculating per-dimension transition probabilities when learning high-dimensional distributions. In this study, we rigorously prove that this approach leads to a worst-case linear scaling of Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence with data dimension. To address this, we propose a Quantum Discrete Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (QD3PM), which enables joint probability learning through diffusion and denoising in exponentially large Hilbert spaces, offering a theoretical pathway to faithfully capture the true joint distribution. By deriving posterior states through quantum Bayes' theorem, similar to the crucial role of posterior probabilities in classical diffusion models, and by learning the joint probability, we establish a solid theoretical foundation for quantum-enhanced diffusion models. For denoising, we design a quantum circuit that utilizes temporal information for parameter sharing and incorporates learnable classical-data-controlled rotations for encoding. Exploiting joint distribution learning, our approach enables single-step sampling from pure noise, eliminating iterative requirements of existing models. Simulations demonstrate the proposed model's superior accuracy in modeling complex distributions compared to factorization methods. Hence, this paper establishes a new theoretical paradigm in generative models by leveraging the quantum advantage in joint distribution learning.
Interactive Multi-Objective Probabilistic Preference Learning with Soft and Hard Bounds
Chen, Edward, Truong, Sang T., Dullerud, Natalie, Koyejo, Sanmi, Guestrin, Carlos
High-stakes decision-making involves navigating multiple competing objectives with expensive evaluations. For instance, in brachytherapy, clinicians must balance maximizing tumor coverage (e.g., an aspirational target or soft bound of >95% coverage) against strict organ dose limits (e.g., a non-negotiable hard bound of <601 cGy to the bladder), with each plan evaluation being resource-intensive. Selecting Pareto-optimal solutions that match implicit preferences is challenging, as exhaustive Pareto frontier exploration is computationally and cognitively prohibitive, necessitating interactive frameworks to guide users. While decision-makers (DMs) often possess domain knowledge to narrow the search via such soft-hard bounds, current methods often lack systematic approaches to iteratively refine these multi-faceted preference structures. Critically, DMs must trust their final decision, confident they haven't missed superior alternatives; this trust is paramount in high-consequence scenarios. We present Active-MoSH, an interactive local-global framework designed for this process. Its local component integrates soft-hard bounds with probabilistic preference learning, maintaining distributions over DM preferences and bounds for adaptive Pareto subset refinement. This is guided by an active sampling strategy optimizing exploration-exploitation while minimizing cognitive burden. To build DM trust, Active-MoSH's global component, T-MoSH, leverages multi-objective sensitivity analysis to identify potentially overlooked, high-value points beyond immediate feedback. We demonstrate Active-MoSH's performance benefits through diverse synthetic and real-world applications. A user study on AI-generated image selection further validates our hypotheses regarding the framework's ability to improve convergence, enhance DM trust, and provide expressive preference articulation, enabling more effective DMs.
Less Greedy Equivalence Search
Ejaz, Adiba, Bareinboim, Elias
Greedy Equivalence Search (GES) is a classic score-based algorithm for causal discovery from observational data. In the sample limit, it recovers the Markov equivalence class of graphs that describe the data. Still, it faces two challenges in practice: computational cost and finite-sample accuracy. In this paper, we develop Less Greedy Equivalence Search (LGES), a variant of GES that retains its theoretical guarantees while partially addressing these limitations. LGES modifies the greedy step: rather than always applying the highest-scoring insertion, it avoids edge insertions between variables for which the score implies some conditional independence. This more targeted search yields up to a \(10\)-fold speed-up and a substantial reduction in structural error relative to GES. Moreover, LGES can guide the search using prior assumptions, while correcting these assumptions when contradicted by the data. Finally, LGES can exploit interventional data to refine the learned observational equivalence class. We prove that LGES recovers the true equivalence class in the sample limit from observational and interventional data, even with misspecified prior assumptions. Experiments demonstrate that LGES outperforms GES and other baselines in speed, accuracy, and robustness to misspecified assumptions. Our code is available at https://github.com/CausalAILab/lges.
Universal Modelling of Autocovariance Functions via Spline Kernels
Flexible modelling of the autocovariance function (ACF) is central to time-series, spatial, and spatio-temporal analysis. Modern applications often demand flexibility beyond classical parametric models, motivating non-parametric descriptions of the ACF. Bochner's Theorem guarantees that any positive spectral measure yields a valid ACF via the inverse Fourier transform; however, existing non-parametric approaches in the spectral domain rarely return closed-form expressions for the ACF itself. We develop a flexible, closed-form class of non-parametric ACFs by deriving the inverse Fourier transform of B-spline spectral bases with arbitrary degree and knot placement. This yields a general class of ACF with three key features: (i) it is provably dense, under an $L^1$ metric, in the space of weakly stationary, mean-square continuous ACFs with mild regularity conditions; (ii) it accommodates univariate, multivariate, and multidimensional processes; and (iii) it naturally supports non-separable structure without requiring explicit imposition. Jackson-type approximation bounds establish convergence rates, and empirical results on simulated and real-world data demonstrate accurate process recovery. The method provides a practical and theoretically grounded approach for constructing a non-parametric class of ACF.
Epistemic Artificial Intelligence is Essential for Machine Learning Models to Truly 'Know When They Do Not Know'
Manchingal, Shireen Kudukkil, Bradley, Andrew, Kooij, Julian F. P., Shariatmadar, Keivan, Yorke-Smith, Neil, Cuzzolin, Fabio
Despite AI's impressive achievements, including recent advances in generative and large language models, there remains a significant gap in the ability of AI systems to handle uncertainty and generalize beyond their training data. AI models consistently fail to make robust enough predictions when facing unfamiliar or adversarial data. Traditional machine learning approaches struggle to address this issue, due to an overemphasis on data fitting, while current uncertainty quantification approaches suffer from serious limitations. This position paper posits a paradigm shift towards epistemic artificial intelligence, emphasizing the need for models to learn from what they know while at the same time acknowledging their ignorance, using the mathematics of second-order uncertainty measures. This approach, which leverages the expressive power of such measures to efficiently manage uncertainty, offers an effective way to improve the resilience and robustness of AI systems, allowing them to better handle unpredictable real-world environments.