Uncertainty
Derivative-Free Guidance in Continuous and Discrete Diffusion Models with Soft Value-based Decoding
Diffusion models excel at capturing the natural design spaces of images, molecules, and biological sequences. However, for many applications, rather than merely generating designs that are natural, we aim to optimize downstream reward functions while preserving the naturalness of these design spaces. Existing methods for achieving this goal often require "differentiable" proxy models (e.g., classifier guidance) or computationally-expensive fine-tuning of diffusion models (e.g., classifier-free guidance, RL-based fine-tuning). Here, we propose a new method, Soft Value-based Decoding in Diffusion models (SVDD), to address these challenges. SVDD is an iterative sampling method that integrates soft value functions, which looks ahead to how intermediate noisy states lead to high rewards in the future, into the standard inference procedure of pre-trained diffusion models. Notably, SVDD avoids fine-tuning generative models and eliminates the need to construct differentiable models. This enables us to (1) directly use non-differentiable features/reward feedback, commonly used in many scientific domains, and (2) apply our method to recent discrete diffusion models in a principled way. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of SVDD across several domains, including image generation, molecule generation (optimization of docking scores, QED, SA), and DNA/RNA generation (optimization of activity levels). The code is available at https://github.com/masa-ue/SVDD.
Amortized Sampling with Transferable Normalizing Flows
Efficient equilibrium sampling of molecular conformations remains a core challenge in computational chemistry and statistical inference. Classical approaches such as molecular dynamics or Markov chain Monte Carlo inherently lack amortization; the computational cost of sampling must be paid in full for each system of interest. The widespread success of generative models has inspired interest towards overcoming this limitation through learning sampling algorithms. Despite performing competitively with conventional methods when trained on a single system, learned samplers have so far demonstrated limited ability to transfer across systems. We demonstrate that deep learning enables the design of scalable and transferable samplers by introducing PROSE, a 285 million parameter all-atom transferable normalizing flow trained on a corpus of peptide molecular dynamics trajectories up to 8 residues in length. PROSE draws zero-shot uncorrelated proposal samples for arbitrary peptide systems, achieving the previously intractable transferability across sequence length, whilst retaining the efficient likelihood evaluation of normalizing flows. Through extensive empirical evaluation we demonstrate the efficacy of PROSE as a proposal for a variety of sampling algorithms, finding a simple importance sampling-based fine-tuning procedure to achieve competitive performance to established methods such as sequential Monte Carlo. We open-source the PROSE codebase, model weights, and training dataset, to further stimulate research into amortized sampling methods and objectives.
Bayesian Concept Bottleneck Models with LLMPriors
Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) have been proposed as a compromise between white-box and black-box models, aiming to achieve interpretability without sacrificing accuracy. The standard training procedure for CBMs is to predefine a candidate set of human-interpretable concepts, extract their values from the training data, and identify a sparse subset as inputs to a transparent prediction model. However, such approaches are often hampered by the tradeoff between exploring a sufficiently large set of concepts versus controlling the cost of obtaining concept extractions, resulting in a large interpretability-accuracy tradeoff. This work investigates a novel approach that sidesteps these challenges: BC-LLM iteratively searches over a potentially infinite set of concepts within a Bayesian framework, in which Large Language Models (LLMs) serve as both a concept extraction mechanism and prior. Even though LLMs can be miscalibrated and hallucinate, we prove that BC-LLM can provide rigorous statistical inference and uncertainty quantification. Across image, text, and tabular datasets, BC-LLM outperforms interpretable baselines and even black-box models in certain settings, converges more rapidly towards relevant concepts, and is more robust to out-of-distribution samples. 1
Optimal Adjustment Sets for Nonparametric Estimation of Weighted Controlled Direct Effect
The weighted controlled direct effect (WCDE) generalizes the standard controlled direct effect (CDE) by averaging over the mediator distribution, providing a robust estimate when treatment effects vary across mediator levels. This makes the WCDE especially relevant in fairness analysis, where it isolates the direct effect of an exposure on an outcome, independent of mediating pathways. This work establishes three fundamental advances for WCDE in observational studies: First, we establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of the WCDE, clarifying when it diverges from the CDE. Next, we consider nonparametric estimation of the WCDE and derive its influence function, focusing on the class of regular and asymptotically linear estimators. Lastly, we characterize the optimal covariate adjustment set that minimizes the asymptotic variance, demonstrating how mediator-confounder interactions introduce distinct requirements compared to average treatment effect (ATE) estimation. Using synthetic and real-world data, we validate our theory numerically, showing that the proposed optimal valid adjustment set yields the lowest variance at practical sample sizes. Our results offer a principled framework for efficient estimation of direct effects in complex causal systems, with practical applications in fairness and mediation analysis.
ABayesian Fast-Slow Framework to Mitigate Interference in Non-Stationary Reinforcement Learning
Given the ever-changing nature of the world and its inhabitants, agents must possess the ability to adapt and evolve over time. Recent research in Given the ever-changing nature of the world and its inhabitants, agents must possess the ability to adapt and evolve over time. Recent research in non-stationary MDPs has focused on addressing this challenge, providing algorithms inspired by task inference techniques. However, these methods ignore the detrimental effects of interference, which particularly harm performance in contradictory tasks, leading to low efficiency in some environments. To address this issue, we propose a Bayesian Fast-Slow Framework (BFSF) that tackles both cross-task generalization and resistance to cross-task interference.
ESCORT: Efficient Stein-variational and Sliced Consistency-Optimized Temporal Belief Representation for POMDPs
In Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), maintaining and updating belief distributions over possible underlying states provides a principled way to summarize action-observation history for effective decision-making under uncertainty. As environments grow more realistic, belief distributions develop complexity that standard mathematical models cannot accurately capture, creating a fundamental challenge in maintaining representational accuracy. Despite advances in deep learning and probabilistic modeling, existing POMDP belief approximation methods fail to accurately represent complex uncertainty structures such as high-dimensional, multi-modal belief distributions, resulting in estimation errors that lead to suboptimal agent behaviors. To address this challenge, we present ESCORT (Efficient Stein-variational and sliced ConsistencyOptimized Representation for Temporal beliefs), a particle-based framework for capturing complex, multi-modal distributions in high-dimensional belief spaces. ESCORT extends SVGD with two key innovations: correlation-aware projections that model dependencies between state dimensions, and temporal consistency constraints that stabilize updates while preserving correlation structures. This approach retains SVGD's attractive-repulsive particle dynamics while enabling accurate modeling of intricate correlation patterns. Unlike particle filters prone to degeneracy or parametric methods with fixed representational capacity, ESCORT dynamically adapts to belief landscape complexity without resampling or restrictive distributional assumptions. We demonstrate ESCORT's effectiveness through extensive evaluations on both POMDP domains and synthetic multi-modal distributions of varying dimensionality, where it consistently outperforms state-of-theart methods in terms of belief approximation accuracy and downstream decision quality.
Private Statistical Estimation via Truncation
We introduce a novel framework for differentially private (DP) statistical estimation via data truncation, addressing a key challenge in DP estimation when the data support is unbounded. Traditional approaches rely on problem-specific sensitivity analysis, limiting their applicability. By leveraging techniques from truncated statistics, we develop computationally efficient DP estimators for exponential family distributions, including Gaussian mean and covariance estimation, achieving near-optimal sample complexity. Previous works on exponential families only consider bounded or one-dimensional families. Our approach mitigates sensitivity through truncation while carefully correcting for the introduced bias using maximum likelihood estimation and DP stochastic gradient descent. Along the way, we establish improved uniform convergence guarantees for the log-likelihood function of exponential families, which may be of independent interest. Our results provide a general blueprint for DP algorithm design via truncated statistics.
Exploiting Dynamic Sparsity in Einsum
Einsum expressions specify an output tensor in terms of several input tensors. They offer a simple yet expressive abstraction for many computational tasks in artificial intelligence and beyond. However, evaluating einsum expressions poses hard algorithmic problems that depend on the representation of the tensors. Two popular representations are multidimensional arrays and coordinate lists. The latter is a more compact representation for sparse tensors, that is, tensors where a significant proportion of the entries are zero. So far, however, most of the popular einsum implementations use the multidimensional array representation for tensors. Here, we show on a non-trivial example that, when evaluating einsum expressions, coordinate lists can be exponentially more efficient than multidimensional arrays. In practice, however, coordinate lists can also be significantly less efficient than multidimensional arrays, but it is hard to decide from the input tensors whether this will be the case.
Generative property enhancer: implicit guided generation through conditional density estimation
Generative modeling is increasingly important for data-driven computational design. Conventional approaches pair a generative model with a discriminative model to select or guide samples toward optimized designs. Yet discriminative models often struggle in data-scarce settings, common in scientific applications, and are unreliable in the tails of the distribution where optimal designs typically lie. We introduce generative property enhancer (GPE), an approach that implicitly guides generation by matching samples with lower property values to higher-value ones. Formulated as conditional density estimation, our framework defines a target distribution with improved properties, compelling the generative model to produce enhanced, diverse designs without auxiliary predictors. GPE is simple, scalable, end-to-end, modality-agnostic, and integrates seamlessly with diverse generative model architectures and losses. We demonstrate competitive empirical results on standard in silico offline (non-sequential) protein fitness optimization benchmarks. Finally, we propose iterative training on a combination of limited real data and self-generated synthetic data, enabling extrapolation beyond the original property ranges.
Generating Computational Cognitive Models using Large Language Models
Computational cognitive models, which formalize theories of cognition, enable researchers to quantify cognitive processes and arbitrate between competing theories by fitting models to behavioral data. Traditionally, these models are handcrafted, which requires significant domain knowledge, coding expertise, and time investment.