Uncertainty
Deep Continuous-Time State-Space Models for Marked Event Sequences
Marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) model sequences of events occurring at irregular time intervals, with wide-ranging applications in fields such as healthcare, finance and social networks. We propose the state-space point process (S2P2) model, a novel and performant model that leverages techniques derived for modern deep state-space models (SSMs) to overcome limitations of existing MTPP models, while simultaneously imbuing strong inductive biases for continuous-time event sequences that other discrete sequence models (i.e., RNNs, transformers) do not capture. Inspired by the classical linear Hawkes processes, we propose an architecture that interleaves stochastic jump differential equations with nonlinearities to create a highly expressive intensity-based MTPP model, without the need for restrictive parametric assumptions for the intensity. Our approach enables efficient training and inference with a parallel scan, bringing linear complexity and sublinear scaling while retaining expressivity to MTPPs. Empirically, S2P2 achieves state-of-the-art predictive likelihoods across eight real-world datasets, delivering an average improvement of 33% over the best existing approaches.
MoleBridge: Synthetic Space Projecting with Discrete Markov Bridges
Molecular synthetic space projecting is a critical technique in de novo molecular design, which aims to rectify molecules without synthesizability guarantee by converting them into synthetic postfix notations. However, the vast synthesizable chemical space and the discrete data modalities involved pose significant challenges to postfix notation conversion benchmarking. In this paper, we exploit conditional probability transitions in discrete state space and introduce MoleBridge, a deep generative model built on the Markov bridge approach for designing postfix notations of molecular synthesis pathways. MoleBridge consists of two iterative optimizations: i) Autoregressive extending of notation tokens from molecular graphs, and ii) generation of discrete reaction postfix notations through Markov bridge, where noisy token blocks are progressively denoised over multi-step iterations. For the challenging second iteration, which demands sensitivity to incorrect generative probability paths within intricate chemical spaces, we employ a thinking and denoising separation approach to denoise. Empirically, we find that MoleBridge is capable of accurately predicting synthesis pathways while exhibiting excellent performance in a variety of application scenarios.
Listwise Preference Diffusion Optimization for User Behavior Trajectories Prediction
Forecasting multi-step user behavior trajectories requires reasoning over structured preferences across future actions, a challenge overlooked by traditional sequential recommendation. This problem is critical for applications such as personalized commerce and adaptive content delivery, where anticipating a user's complete action sequence enhances both satisfaction and business outcomes. We identify an essential limitation of existing paradigms: their inability to capture global, listwise dependencies among sequence items. To address this, we formulate User Behavior Trajectory Prediction (UBTP) as a new task setting that explicitly models longterm user preferences. We introduce Listwise Preference Diffusion Optimization (LPDO), a diffusion-based training framework that directly optimizes structured preferences over entire item sequences. LPDO incorporates a Plackett-Luce supervision signal and derives a tight variational lower bound aligned with listwise ranking likelihoods, enabling coherent preference generation across denoising steps and overcoming the independent-token assumption of prior diffusion methods. To rigorously evaluate multi-step prediction quality, we propose the task-specific metric: Sequential Match (SeqMatch), which measures exact trajectory agreement, and adopt Perplexity (PPL), which assesses probabilistic fidelity. Extensive experiments on real-world user behavior benchmarks demonstrate that LPDO consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, establishing a new benchmark for structured preference learning with diffusion models.
Inference with correlated priors using sisters cells
A common view of sensory processing is as probabilistic inference of latent causes from receptor activations. Standard approaches often assume these causes are a priori independent, yet real-world generative factors are typically correlated. Representing such structured priors in neural systems poses architectural challenges, particularly when direct interactions between units representing latent causes are biologically implausible or computationally expensive. Inspired by the architecture of the olfactory bulb, we propose a novel circuit motif that enables inference with correlated priors without requiring direct interactions among latent cause units. The key insight lies in using sister cells: neurons receiving shared receptor input but connected differently to local interneurons.
Spend Wisely: Maximizing Post-Training Gains in Iterative Synthetic Data Bootstrapping
Modern foundation models often undergo iterative "bootstrapping" in their posttraining phase: a model generates synthetic data, an external verifier filters out low-quality samples, and the high-quality subset is used for further fine-tuning. Over multiple iterations, the model performance improves, raising a crucial question: How should the total budget for generation and training be allocated across iterations to maximize final performance? In this work, we develop a theoretical framework for analyzing budget allocation strategies. Specifically, we show that constant policies fail to converge with high probability, while increasing policies-- particularly exponential growth policies--exhibit significant theoretical advantages. Experiments on image denoising with diffusion probabilistic models and math reasoning with large language models show that both exponential and polynomial growth policies consistently outperform constant policies, with exponential policies often providing more stable performance.
Quantum Visual Fields with Neural Amplitude Encoding
Quantum Implicit Neural Representations (QINRs) have emerged as a promising paradigm that leverages parametrised quantum circuits to encode and process classical information. However, significant challenges remain in areas such as ansatz architecture design, the effective utility of quantum-mechanical properties, training efficiency, and the integration with classical modules. This paper advances the field by introducing a novel QINR architecture for 2D image and 3D geometric field learning, which we collectively refer to as Quantum Visual Field (QVF). QVF encodes classical data into quantum statevectors using neural amplitude encoding grounded in a learnable energy manifold, ensuring meaningful Hilbert space embeddings. Our ansatz follows a fully entangled design of learnable parametrised quantum circuits, with quantum (unitary) operations performed in the real Hilbert space, resulting in numerically stable training with fast convergence. QVF does not rely on classical post-processing--in contrast to the previous QINR learning approach--and directly employs measurements to extract learned signals encoded in the ansatz. Experiments on a quantum hardware simulator demonstrate that QVF outperforms existing quantum approach and competes widely used classical foundational baselines in terms of visual representation accuracy across various metrics and model characteristics. We also show applications of QVF in 2D and 3D field completion and 3D shape interpolation, highlighting its practical potential.
Posterior Contraction for Sparse Neural Networks in Besov Spaces with Intrinsic Dimensionality
This work establishes that sparse Bayesian neural networks achieve optimal posterior contraction rates over anisotropic Besov spaces and their hierarchical compositions. These structures reflect the intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying function, thereby mitigating the curse of dimensionality. Our analysis shows that Bayesian neural networks equipped with either sparse or continuous shrinkage priors attain the optimal rates which are dependent on the intrinsic dimension of the true structures. Moreover, we show that these priors enable rate adaptation, allowing the posterior to contract at the optimal rate even when the smoothness level of the true function is unknown. The proposed framework accommodates a broad class of functions, including additive and multiplicative Besov functions as special cases. These results advance the theoretical foundations of Bayesian neural networks and provide rigorous justification for their practical effectiveness in high-dimensional, structured estimation problems.
Agnostic Active Learning Is Always Better Than Passive Learning
We provide the first sharp characterization of the optimal first-order query complexity of agnostic active learning, and propose a new general active learning algorithm which achieves it. Remarkably, the optimal query complexity admits a leading term which is always strictly smaller than the sample complexity of passive supervised learning (by a factor proportional to the best-in-class error rate). This was not previously known to be possible. For comparison, in all previous general analyses, the leading term exhibits an additional factor, such as the disagreement coefficient or related complexity measures, and therefore only provides improvements over passive learning in restricted cases. The present work completely removes such factors from the leading term, implying that every concept class benefits from active learning in the non-realizable case. Whether such benefits are possible has been the driving question underlying the past two decades of research on the theory of agnostic active learning. This work finally settles this fundamental question.
Nonparametric Deconvolution and Denoising using Simulation Based Inference
Vashistha, Ritwik, Sarkar, Abhra, Farahi, Arya
Latent signals are often obscured by measurement noise, yet encode the underlying laws and dynamics of complex systems; learning both the signals and their distributions remains a central challenge in scientific inference. The noise is often non-negligible, and the likelihoods for expressive generative models are often intractable. We utilize a convolutional maximum mean discrepancy (convMMD) loss and propose a likelihood-free framework for nonparametric density deconvolution and empirical Bayes denoising under additive measurement error. Our method learns a latent generative model by matching the observed data distribution to the noise-convolved model distribution. This yields a differentiable, simulation-based objective for multivariate homoscedastic or heteroscedastic noise, compatible with expressive sieve classes such as Gaussian mixtures and normalizing flows. The learned density then serves as an empirical prior for posterior denoising of individual latent values. Theoretically, we extend convMMD from parametric to nonparametric estimation, proving finite-sample bounds for empirical sieve minimizers and $L_2$ convergence rates under Sobolev smoothness. These rates recover the classical inverse-problem dependence: polynomial for ordinary-smooth and logarithmic for super-smooth noises. Our method provides a practical, theoretically grounded approach to deconvolution and denoising under generative latent distribution models.
Action-BED: Task-Driven Bayesian Experimental Design with Singly Intractable Objectives
Rossa, Tom, Phillips, Angus, Rainforth, Tom
Bayesian experimental design (BED) has traditionally been based on maximising expected uncertainty reductions from prior to posterior. A major shortfall of this approach is that it leads to doubly intractable objectives that are difficult to optimise, while customising them to particular downstream tasks of interest can also be difficult. Following first principles decision theory, we demonstrate that BED can alternatively be formulated in terms of an expected future loss (EFL) on downstream actions, providing a simple and naturally task-driven framework. Critically, we then show that all such EFLs can be rearranged into singly intractable objectives that can be jointly optimised with respect to both the design policy and a downstream action policy using stochastic gradients, an approach we refer to as ACTION-BED. This formulation further sidesteps the need for any explicit posterior or marginal likelihood estimation and is naturally implicit, requiring only the ability to sample from the joint model over model parameters and data, and evaluate the downstream loss function. It thus allows design policies to be learned more effectively, efficiently, and simply than existing methods, while providing easy customisation to different downstream tasks and losses.