Data preparation is a foundational yet notoriously challenging component of the machine learning lifecycle, characterized by a vast combinatorial search space. While reinforcement learning (RL) offers a promising direction, state-of-the-art methods suffer from a critical limitation: to manage the search space, they rely on rigid ``hard constraints'' that prematurely prune the search space and often preclude optimal solutions. To address this, we introduce SoftPipe, a novel RL framework that replaces these constraints with a flexible ``soft guidance'' paradigm. SoftPipe formulates action selection as a Bayesian inference problem. A high-level strategic prior, generated by a Large Language Model (LLM), probabilistically guides exploration. This prior is combined with empirical estimators from two sources through a collaborative process: a fine-grained quality score from a supervised Learning-to-Rank (LTR) model and a long-term value estimate from the agent's Q-function. Through extensive experiments on 18 diverse datasets, we demonstrate that SoftPipe achieves up to a 13.9\% improvement in pipeline quality and 2.8$\times$ faster convergence compared to existing methods.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are powerful probabilistic models that enable exact and tractable inference, making them highly suitable for probabilistic reasoning and inference tasks. While dominant in neural networks, representation learning with PCs remains underexplored, with prior approaches relying on external neural embeddings or activation-based encodings. To address this gap, we introduce autoencoding probabilistic circuits (APCs), a novel framework leveraging the tractability of PCs to model probabilistic embeddings explicitly. APCs extend PCs by jointly modeling data and embeddings, obtaining embedding representations through tractable probabilistic inference. The PC encoder allows the framework to natively handle arbitrary missing data and is seamlessly integrated with a neural decoder in a hybrid, end-to-end trainable architecture enabled by differentiable sampling. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that APCs outperform existing PC-based autoencoding methods in reconstruction quality, generate embeddings competitive with, and exhibit superior robustness in handling missing data compared to neural autoencoders. These results highlight APCs as a powerful and flexible representation learning method that exploits the probabilistic inference capabilities of PCs, showing promising directions for robust inference, out-of-distribution detection, and knowledge distillation.

Photonic device development (PDD) has achieved remarkable success in designing and implementing new devices for controlling light across various wavelengths, scales, and applications, including telecommunications, imaging, sensing, and quantum information processing. PDD is an iterative, five-step process that consists of: i) deriving device behavior from design parameters, ii) simulating device performance, iii) finding the optimal candidate designs from simulations, iv) fabricating the optimal device, and v) measuring device performance. Classically, all these steps involve Bayesian optimization, material science, control theory, and direct physics-driven numerical methods. However, many of these techniques are computationally intractable, monetarily costly, or difficult to implement at scale. In addition, PDD suffers from large optimization landscapes, uncertainties in structural or optical characterization, and difficulties in implementing robust fabrication processes. However, the advent of machine learning over the past decade has provided novel, data-driven strategies for tackling these challenges, including surrogate estimators for speeding up computations, generative modeling for noisy measurement modeling and data augmentation, reinforcement learning for fabrication, and active learning for experimental physical discovery. In this review, we present a comprehensive perspective on these methods to enable machine-learning-assisted PDD (ML-PDD) for efficient design optimization with powerful generative models, fast simulation and characterization modeling under noisy measurements, and reinforcement learning for fabrication. This review will provide researchers from diverse backgrounds with valuable insights into this emerging topic, fostering interdisciplinary efforts to accelerate the development of complex photonic devices and systems.

We introduce the Flow Stochastic Segmentation Network (Flow-SSN), a generative segmentation model family featuring discrete-time autoregressive and modern continuous-time flow variants. We prove fundamental limitations of the low-rank parameterisation of previous methods and show that Flow-SSNs can estimate arbitrarily high-rank pixel-wise covariances without assuming the rank or storing the distributional parameters. Flow-SSNs are also more efficient to sample from than standard diffusion-based segmentation models, thanks to most of the model capacity being allocated to learning the base distribution of the flow, constituting an expressive prior. We apply Flow-SSNs to challenging medical imaging benchmarks and achieve state-of-the-art results. Code available: https://github.com/biomedia-mira/flow-ssn.

The discovery of causal relationships is a foundational problem in artificial intelligence, statistics, epidemiology, economics, and beyond. While elegant theories exist for accurate causal discovery given infinite data, real-world applications are inherently resource-constrained. Effective methods for inferring causal relationships from observational data must perform well under finite data and time constraints, where "performing well" implies achieving high, though not perfect accuracy. In his seminal paper A Theory of the Learnable (Valiant, 1984), Valiant highlighted the importance of resource constraints in supervised machine learning, introducing the concept of Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning as an alternative to exact learning. Inspired by Valiant's work, we propose the Probably Approximately Correct Causal (PACC) Discovery framework, which extends PAC learning principles to the causal field. This framework emphasizes both computational and sample efficiency for established causal methods such as propensity score techniques and instrumental variable approaches. Furthermore, we show that it can provide theoretical guarantees for other widely used methods, such as the Self-Controlled Case Series (SCCS) method, which had previously lacked such guarantees.

Causal discovery algorithms typically recover causal graphs only up to their Markov equivalence classes unless additional parametric assumptions are made. The sizes of these equivalence classes reflect the limits of what can be learned about the underlying causal graph from purely observational data. Under the assumptions of acyclicity, causal sufficiency, and a uniform model prior, Markov equivalence classes are known to be small on average. In this paper, we show that this is no longer the case when any of these assumptions is relaxed. Specifically, we prove exponentially large lower bounds for the expected size of Markov equivalence classes in three settings: sparse random directed acyclic graphs, uniformly random acyclic directed mixed graphs, and uniformly random directed cyclic graphs.

Artificial intelligence is increasingly leveraged across various domains to automate decision-making processes that significantly impact human lives. In medical image analysis, deep learning models have demonstrated remarkable performance. However, their inherent complexity makes them black box systems, raising concerns about reliability and interpretability. Counterfactual explanations provide comprehensible insights into decision processes by presenting hypothetical "what-if" scenarios that alter model classifications. By examining input alterations, counterfactual explanations provide patterns that influence the decision-making process. Despite their potential, generating plausible counterfactuals that adhere to similarity constraints providing human-interpretable explanations remains a challenge. In this paper, we investigate this challenge by a model-specific optimization approach. While deep generative models such as variational autoencoders (VAEs) exhibit significant generative power, probabilistic models like sum-product networks (SPNs) efficiently represent complex joint probability distributions. By modeling the likelihood of a semi-supervised VAE's latent space with an SPN, we leverage its dual role as both a latent space descriptor and a classifier for a given discrimination task. This formulation enables the optimization of latent space counterfactuals that are both close to the original data distribution and aligned with the target class distribution. We conduct experimental evaluation on the cheXpert dataset. To evaluate the effectiveness of the integration of SPNs, our SPN-guided latent space manipulation is compared against a neural network baseline. Additionally, the trade-off between latent variable regularization and counterfactual quality is analyzed.

Interpretation of topics is crucial for their downstream applications. State-of-the-art evaluation measures of topic quality such as coherence and word intrusion do not measure how much a topic facilitates the exploration of a corpus. To design evaluation measures grounded on a task, and a population of users, we do user studies to understand how users interpret topics. We propose constructs of topic quality and ask users to assess them in the context of a topic and provide rationale behind evaluations. We use reflexive thematic analysis to identify themes of topic interpretations from rationales. Users interpret topics based on availability and representativeness heuristics rather than probability. We propose a theory of topic interpretation based on the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic: users anchor on salient words and make semantic adjustments to arrive at an interpretation. Topic interpretation can be viewed as making a judgment under uncertainty by an ecologically rational user, and hence cognitive biases aware user models and evaluation frameworks are needed.

Differentiated thyroid cancer DTC recurrence is a major public health concern, requiring classification and predictive models that are not only accurate but also interpretable and uncertainty aware. This study introduces a comprehensive framework for DTC recurrence classification using a dataset containing 383 patients and 16 clinical and pathological variables. Initially, 11 machine learning ML models were employed using the complete dataset, where the Support Vector Machines SVM model achieved the highest accuracy of 0.9481. To reduce complexity and redundancy, feature selection was carried out using the Boruta algorithm, and the same ML models were applied to the reduced dataset, where it was observed that the Logistic Regression LR model obtained the maximum accuracy of 0.9611. However, these ML models often lack uncertainty quantification, which is critical in clinical decision making. Therefore, to address this limitation, the Bayesian Neural Networks BNN with six varying prior distributions, including Normal 0,1, Normal 0,10, Laplace 0,1, Cauchy 0,1, Cauchy 0,2.5, and Horseshoe 1, were implemented on both the complete and reduced datasets. The BNN model with Normal 0,10 prior distribution exhibited maximum accuracies of 0.9740 and 0.9870 before and after feature selection, respectively.

NLP models often rely on human-labeled data for training and evaluation. Many approaches crowdsource this data from a large number of annotators with varying skills, backgrounds, and motivations, resulting in conflicting annotations. These conflicts have traditionally been resolved by aggregation methods that assume disagreements are errors. Recent work has argued that for many tasks annotators may have genuine disagreements and that variation should be treated as signal rather than noise. However, few models separate signal and noise in annotator disagreement. In this work, we introduce NUTMEG, a new Bayesian model that incorporates information about annotator backgrounds to remove noisy annotations from human-labeled training data while preserving systematic disagreements. Using synthetic data, we show that NUTMEG is more effective at recovering ground-truth from annotations with systematic disagreement than traditional aggregation methods. We provide further analysis characterizing how differences in subpopulation sizes, rates of disagreement, and rates of spam affect the performance of our model. Finally, we demonstrate that downstream models trained on NUTMEG-aggregated data significantly outperform models trained on data from traditionally aggregation methods. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for both annotator competence and systematic disagreements when training on human-labeled data.