"AI systems–like people–must often act despite partial and uncertain information. First, the information received may be unreliable (e.g., a patient may mis-remember when a disease started, or may not have noticed a symptom that is important to a diagnosis). In addition, rules connecting real-world events can never include all the factors that might determine whether their conclusions really apply (e.g., the correctness of basing a diagnosis on a lab test depends whether there were conditions that might have caused a false positive, on the test being done correctly, on the results being associated with the right patient, etc.) Thus in order to draw useful conclusions, AI systems must be able to reason about the probability of events, given their current knowledge." – from David Leake, Reasoning Under Uncertainty
A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a prior distribution over the network parameters, infer an approximate posterior distribution, and use it to make stochastic predictions.
The " cold posterior effect " (CPE) in Bayesian deep learning describes the uncom-forting observation that the predictive performance of Bayesian neural networks
D2C uses a learned diffusion-based prior over the latent representations to improve generation and contrastive self-supervised learning to improve representation quality.