This paper studies optimization on networks modeled as metric graphs. Motivated by applications where the objective function is expensive to evaluate or only available as a black box, we develop Bayesian optimization algorithms that sequentially update a Gaussian process surrogate model of the objective to guide the acquisition of query points. To ensure that the surrogates are tailored to the network's geometry, we adopt Whittle-Matérn Gaussian process prior models defined via stochastic partial differential equations on metric graphs. In addition to establishing regret bounds for optimizing sufficiently smooth objective functions, we analyze the practical case in which the smoothness of the objective is unknown and the Whittle-Matérn prior is represented using finite elements. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms for optimizing benchmark objective functions on a synthetic metric graph and for Bayesian inversion via maximum a posteriori estimation on a telecommunication network.

Score-based diffusion models have achieved remarkable empirical success in generating high-quality samples from target data distributions. Among them, the Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM) is one of the most widely used samplers, generating samples via estimated score functions. Despite its empirical success, a tight theoretical understanding of DDPM -- especially its convergence properties -- remains limited. In this paper, we provide a refined convergence analysis of the DDPM sampler and establish near-optimal convergence rates under general distributional assumptions. Specifically, we introduce a relaxed smoothness condition parameterized by a constant $L$, which is small for many practical distributions (e.g., Gaussian mixture models). We prove that the DDPM sampler with accurate score estimates achieves a convergence rate of $$\widetilde{O}\left(\frac{d\min\{d,L^2\}}{T^2}\right)~\text{in Kullback-Leibler divergence},$$ where $d$ is the data dimension, $T$ is the number of iterations, and $\widetilde{O}$ hides polylogarithmic factors in $T$. This result substantially improves upon the best-known $d^2/T^2$ rate when $L < \sqrt{d}$. By establishing a matching lower bound, we show that our convergence analysis is tight for a wide array of target distributions. Moreover, it reveals that DDPM and DDIM share the same dependence on $d$, raising an interesting question of why DDIM often appears empirically faster.

Fuzzy clustering provides a natural framework for modeling partial memberships, particularly important in multivariate time series (MTS) where state boundaries are often ambiguous. For example, in EEG monitoring of driver alertness, neural activity evolves along a continuum (from unconscious to fully alert, with many intermediate levels of drowsiness) so crisp labels are unrealistic and partial memberships are essential. However, most existing algorithms are developed for static, low-dimensional data and struggle with temporal dependence, unequal sequence lengths, high dimensionality, and contamination by noise or artifacts. To address these challenges, we introduce RFCPCA, a robust fuzzy subspace-clustering method explicitly tailored to MTS that, to the best of our knowledge, is the first of its kind to simultaneously: (i) learn membership-informed subspaces, (ii) accommodate unequal lengths and moderately high dimensions, (iii) achieve robustness through trimming, exponential reweighting, and a dedicated noise cluster, and (iv) automatically select all required hyperparameters. These components enable RFCPCA to capture latent temporal structure, provide calibrated membership uncertainty, and flag series-level outliers while remaining stable under contamination. On driver drowsiness EEG, RFCPCA improves clustering accuracy over related methods and yields a more reliable characterization of uncertainty and outlier structure in MTS.

This note introduces a unified theory for causal inference that integrates Riesz regression, covariate balancing, density-ratio estimation (DRE), targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE), and the matching estimator in average treatment effect (ATE) estimation. In ATE estimation, the balancing weights and the regression functions of the outcome play important roles, where the balancing weights are referred to as the Riesz representer, bias-correction term, and clever covariates, depending on the context. Riesz regression, covariate balancing, DRE, and the matching estimator are methods for estimating the balancing weights, where Riesz regression is essentially equivalent to DRE in the ATE context, the matching estimator is a special case of DRE, and DRE is in a dual relationship with covariate balancing. TMLE is a method for constructing regression function estimators such that the leading bias term becomes zero. Nearest Neighbor Matching is equivalent to Least Squares Density Ratio Estimation and Riesz Regression.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) offers a cost-effective solution for fine-tuning large language models (LLMs), but it often produces overconfident predictions in data-scarce few-shot settings. To address this issue, several classical statistical learning approaches have been repurposed for scalable uncertainty-aware LoRA fine-tuning. However, these approaches neglect how input characteristics affect the predictive uncertainty estimates. To address this limitation, we propose Contextual Low-Rank Adaptation (C-LoRA) as a novel uncertainty-aware and parameter efficient fine-tuning approach, by developing new lightweight LoRA modules contextualized to each input data sample to dynamically adapt uncertainty estimates. Incorporating data-driven contexts into the parameter posteriors, C-LoRA mitigates overfitting, achieves well-calibrated uncertainties, and yields robust predictions. Extensive experiments on LLaMA2-7B models demonstrate that C-LoRA consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art uncertainty-aware LoRA methods in both uncertainty quantification and model generalization. Ablation studies further confirm the critical role of our contextual modules in capturing sample-specific uncertainties. C-LoRA sets a new standard for robust, uncertainty-aware LLM fine-tuning in few-shot regimes. Although our experiments are limited to 7B models, our method is architecture-agnostic and, in principle, applies beyond this scale; studying its scaling to larger models remains an open problem. Our code is available at https://github.com/ahra99/c_lora.

Neurosymbolic (NeSy) predictors combine neural perception with symbolic reasoning to solve tasks like visual reasoning. However, standard NeSy predictors assume conditional independence between the symbols they extract, thus limiting their ability to model interactions and uncertainty - often leading to overconfident predictions and poor out-of-distribution generalisation. To overcome the limitations of the independence assumption, we introduce neurosymbolic diffusion models (NeSyDMs), a new class of NeSy predictors that use discrete diffusion to model dependencies between symbols. Our approach reuses the independence assumption from NeSy predictors at each step of the diffusion process, enabling scalable learning while capturing symbol dependencies and uncertainty quantification. Across both synthetic and real-world benchmarks - including high-dimensional visual path planning and rule-based autonomous driving - NeSyDMs achieve state-of-the-art accuracy among NeSy predictors and demonstrate strong calibration.

Whenever a quantity of interest cannot be observed directly but only through an indirect measurement process or in the presence of noise, one is faced with an inverse problem. To stabilize the reconstruction and mitigate the information loss inherent in the measurement, it is necessary to incorporate additional knowledge about the unknown data -- its prior distribution, which encodes what one expects the reconstruction to resemble, such as the characteristic features of natural images. Yet our ability to describe natural images in an explicit, algorithmic form remains quite limited. Fortunately, recent years have seen the emergence of data-driven approaches that enable the construction of priors directly from collections of representative samples. While these approaches often surpass classical methods in reconstruction quality, many of them lack theoretical guarantees and remain difficult to interpret. A promising direction explored recently [3, 4, 5, 21] involves invertible neural networks. Thanks to their bidirectional structure, a single network can simultaneously approximate the forward operator and serve as a reconstruction method, with stability ensured by the architecture itself. This hybrid use makes it possible to assess deviations from a known forward operator - or even replace it by a data-based version - while maintaining interpretability of the reconstruction process by the learned measurement model and vice versa. This dual capability is particularly relevant in applications where both high-fidelity reconstructions and a faithful representation of the measurement process are critical, such as scientific imaging and med-Preprint.

Large language models (LLMs) continue to advance, with an increasing number of domain-specific variants tailored for specialised tasks. However, these models often lack transparency and explainability, can be costly to fine-tune, require substantial prompt engineering, yield inconsistent results across domains, and impose significant adverse environmental impact due to their high computational demands. To address these challenges, we propose the Bayesian network LLM fusion (BNLF) framework, which integrates predictions from three LLMs, including FinBERT, RoBERTa, and BERTweet, through a probabilistic mechanism for sentiment analysis. BNLF performs late fusion by modelling the sentiment predictions from multiple LLMs as probabilistic nodes within a Bayesian network. Evaluated across three human-annotated financial corpora with distinct linguistic and contextual characteristics, BNLF demonstrates consistent gains of about six percent in accuracy over the baseline LLMs, underscoring its robustness to dataset variability and the effectiveness of probabilistic fusion for interpretable sentiment classification.

While diffusion language models (DLMs) enable fine-grained refinement, their practical controllability remains fragile. We identify and formally characterize a central failure mode called update forgetting, in which uniform and context agnostic updates induce token level fluctuations across timesteps, erasing earlier semantic edits and disrupting the cumulative refinement process, thereby degrading fluency and coherence. As this failure originates in uniform and context agnostic updates, effective control demands explicit token ordering. We propose Token Timestep Allocation (TTA), which realizes soft and semantic token ordering via per token timestep schedules: critical tokens are frozen early, while uncertain tokens receive continued refinement. This timestep based ordering can be instantiated as either a fixed policy or an adaptive policy driven by task signals, thereby supporting a broad spectrum of refinement strategies. Because it operates purely at inference time, it applies uniformly across various DLMs and naturally extends to diverse supervision sources. Empirically, TTA improves controllability and fluency: on sentiment control, it yields more than 20 percent higher accuracy and nearly halves perplexity using less than one fifth the steps; in detoxification, it lowers maximum toxicity (12.2 versus 14.5) and perplexity (26.0 versus 32.0). Together, these results demonstrate that softened ordering via timestep allocation is the critical lever for mitigating update forgetting and achieving stable and controllable diffusion text generation.

People's goal-directed behaviors are influenced by their cognitive biases, and autonomous systems that interact with people should be aware of this. For example, people's attention to objects in their environment will be biased in a way that systematically affects how they perform everyday tasks such as driving to work. Here, building on recent work in computational cognitive science, we formally articulate the attention-aware inverse planning problem, in which the goal is to estimate a person's attentional biases from their actions. We demonstrate how attention-aware inverse planning systematically differs from standard inverse reinforcement learning and how cognitive biases can be inferred from behavior. Finally, we present an approach to attention-aware inverse planning that combines deep reinforcement learning with computational cognitive modeling. We use this approach to infer the attentional strategies of RL agents in real-life driving scenarios selected from the Waymo Open Dataset, demonstrating the scalability of estimating cognitive biases with attention-aware inverse planning.