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 Uncertainty


Classifying with Gaussian Mixtures and Clusters

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we derive classifiers which are winner-take-all (WTA) approximations to a Bayes classifier with Gaussian mixtures for class conditional densities. The derived classifiers include clustering based algorithms like LVQ and k-Means. We propose a constrained rank Gaussian mixtures model and derive a WTA algorithm for it. Our experiments with two speech classification tasks indicate that the constrained rank model and the WTA approximations improve the performance over the unconstrained models. 1 Introduction A classifier assigns vectors from Rn (n dimensional feature space) to one of K classes, partitioning the feature space into a set of K disjoint regions. A Bayesian classifier builds the partition based on a model of the class conditional probability densities of the inputs (the partition is optimal for the given model).


Inferring Ground Truth from Subjective Labelling of Venus Images

Neural Information Processing Systems

Instead of "ground truth" one may only have the subjective opinion(s) of one or more experts. For example, medical data or image data may be collected off-line and some time later a set of experts analyze the data and produce a set of class labels. The central problem is that of trying to infer the "ground truth" given the noisy subjective estimates of the experts. When one wishes to apply a supervised learning algorithm to the data, the problem is primarily twofold: (i) how to evaluate the relative performance of experts and algorithms, and (ii) how to train a pattern recognition system in the absence of absolute ground truth. In this paper we focus on problem (i), namely the performance evaluation issue, and in particular we discuss the application of a particular modelling technique to the problem of counting volcanoes on the surface of Venus.


Active Learning for Function Approximation

Neural Information Processing Systems

We develop a principled strategy to sample a function optimally for function approximation tasks within a Bayesian framework. Using ideas from optimal experiment design, we introduce an objective function (incorporating both bias and variance) to measure the degree of approximation, and the potential utility of the data points towards optimizing this objective. We show how the general strategy can be used to derive precise algorithms to select data for two cases: learning unit step functions and polynomial functions. In particular, we investigate whether such active algorithms can learn the target with fewer examples. We obtain theoretical and empirical results to suggest that this is the case. 1 INTRODUCTION AND MOTIVATION Learning from examples is a common supervised learning paradigm that hypothesizes a target concept given a stream of training examples that describes the concept. In function approximation, example-based learning can be formulated as synthesizing an approximation function for data sampled from an unknown target function (Poggio and Girosi, 1990). Active learning describes a class of example-based learning paradigms that seeks out new training examples from specific regions of the input space, instead of passively accepting examples from some data generating source.


A Mixture Model System for Medical and Machine Diagnosis

Neural Information Processing Systems

Diagnosis of human disease or machine fault is a missing data problem since many variables are initially unknown. Additional information needs to be obtained. The j oint probability distribution of the data can be used to solve this problem. We model this with mixture models whose parameters are estimated by the EM algorithm. This gives the benefit that missing data in the database itself can also be handled correctly. The request for new information to refine the diagnosis is performed using the maximum utility principle. Since the system is based on learning it is domain independent and less labor intensive than expert systems or probabilistic networks. An example using a heart disease database is presented.


Active Learning for Function Approximation

Neural Information Processing Systems

We develop a principled strategy to sample a function optimally for function approximation tasks within a Bayesian framework. Using ideas from optimal experiment design, we introduce an objective function (incorporating both bias and variance) to measure the degree ofapproximation, and the potential utility of the data points towards optimizing this objective. We show how the general strategy canbe used to derive precise algorithms to select data for two cases: learning unit step functions and polynomial functions. In particular, we investigate whether such active algorithms can learn the target with fewer examples. We obtain theoretical and empirical resultsto suggest that this is the case. 1 INTRODUCTION AND MOTIVATION Learning from examples is a common supervised learning paradigm that hypothesizes atarget concept given a stream of training examples that describes the concept. In function approximation, example-based learning can be formulated as synthesizing anapproximation function for data sampled from an unknown target function (Poggio and Girosi, 1990). Active learning describes a class of example-based learning paradigms that seeks out new training examples from specific regions of the input space, instead of passively accepting examples from some data generating source. By judiciously selecting ex- 594 KahKay Sung, Parlha Niyogi amples instead of allowing for possible random sampling, active learning techniques can conceivably have faster learning rates and better approximation results than passive learning methods. This paper presents a Bayesian formulation for active learning within the function approximation framework.


Estimating Conditional Probability Densities for Periodic Variables

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper we introduce three novel techniques for tackling such problems, and investigate their performance using syntheticdata. We then apply these techniques to the problem of extracting the distribution of wind vector directions from radar scatterometer data gathered by a remote-sensing satellite.


Classifying with Gaussian Mixtures and Clusters

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we derive classifiers which are winner-take-all (WTA) approximations to a Bayes classifier with Gaussian mixtures for class conditional densities. The derived classifiers include clustering based algorithms like LVQ and k-Means. We propose a constrained rank Gaussian mixtures model and derive a WTA algorithm for it. Our experiments with two speech classification tasks indicate that the constrained rank model and the WTA approximations improve the performance over the unconstrained models. 1 Introduction A classifier assigns vectors from Rn (n dimensional feature space) to one of K classes, partitioning the feature space into a set of K disjoint regions. A Bayesian classifier builds the partition based on a model of the class conditional probability densities of the inputs (the partition is optimal for the given model).


A Mixture Model System for Medical and Machine Diagnosis

Neural Information Processing Systems

Diagnosis of human disease or machine fault is a missing data problem since many variables are initially unknown. Additional information needs to be obtained. The j oint probability distribution of the data can be used to solve this problem. We model this with mixture models whose parameters are estimated by the EM algorithm. This gives the benefit that missing data in the database itself can also be handled correctly. The request for new information to refine the diagnosis is performed using the maximum utility principle. Since the system is based on learning it is domain independent and less labor intensive than expert systems or probabilistic networks. An example using a heart disease database is presented.


Inferring Ground Truth from Subjective Labelling of Venus Images

Neural Information Processing Systems

In practical situations, experts may visually examine the images and provide a subjective noisy estimate of the truth. Calibrating the reliability and bias of expert labellers is a nontrivial problem. In this paper we discuss some of our recent work on this topic in the context of detecting small volcanoes in Magellan SAR images of Venus. Empirical results (using the Expectation-Maximization procedure) suggest that accounting for subjective noise can be quite significant interms of quantifying both human and algorithm detection performance.


Bayesian Query Construction for Neural Network Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

If data collection is costly, there is much to be gained by actively selecting particularlyinformative data points in a sequential way. In a Bayesian decision-theoretic framework we develop a query selection criterionwhich explicitly takes into account the intended use of the model predictions. By Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods the necessary quantities can be approximated to a desired precision. Asthe number of data points grows, the model complexity is modified by a Bayesian model selection strategy. The properties oftwo versions of the criterion ate demonstrated in numerical experiments.