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 Uncertainty


An Incremental Nearest Neighbor Algorithm with Queries

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the general problem of learning multi-category classification fromlabeled examples. We present experimental results for a nearest neighbor algorithm which actively selects samples from different pattern classes according to a querying rule instead of the a priori class probabilities. The amount of improvement of this query-based approach over the passive batch approach depends on the complexity of the Bayes rule. The principle on which this algorithm isbased is general enough to be used in any learning algorithm which permits a model-selection criterion and for which the error rate of the classifier is calculable in terms of the complexity of the model. 1 INTRODUCTION We consider the general problem of learning multi-category classification from labeled examples.In many practical learning settings the time or sample size available for training are limited. This may have adverse effects on the accuracy of the resulting classifier.For instance, in learning to recognize handwritten characters typical time limitation confines the training sample size to be of the order of a few hundred examples. It is important to make learning more efficient by obtaining only training data which contains significant information about the separability of the pattern classes thereby letting the learning algorithm participate actively in the sampling process. Querying for the class labels of specificly selected examples in the input space may lead to significant improvements in the generalization error (cf.


Recovering Perspective Pose with a Dual Step EM Algorithm

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper describes a new approach to extracting 3D perspective structure from 2D point-sets. The novel feature is to unify the tasks of estimating transformation geometry and identifying pointcorrespondence matches.Unification is realised by constructing a mixture model over the bipartite graph representing the correspondence matchand by effecting optimisation using the EM algorithm. According to our EM framework the probabilities of structural correspondence gatecontributions to the expected likelihood function used to estimate maximum likelihood perspective pose parameters. This provides a means of rejecting structural outliers.


An Application of Reversible-Jump MCMC to Multivariate Spherical Gaussian Mixtures

Neural Information Processing Systems

Applications of Gaussian mixture models occur frequently in the fields of statistics and artificial neural networks. One of the key issues arising from any mixture model application is how to estimate theoptimum number of mixture components. This paper extends the Reversible-Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to the case of multivariate spherical Gaussian mixtures using a hierarchical prior model. Using this method the number of mixture components is no longer fixed but becomes a parameter ofthe model which we shall estimate. The Reversible-Jump MCMC algorithm is capable of moving between parameter subspaces whichcorrespond to models with different numbers of mixture components. As a result a sample from the full joint distribution of all unknown model parameters is generated. The technique is then demonstrated on a simulated example and a well known vowel dataset. 1 Introduction Applications of Gaussian mixture models regularly appear in the neural networks literature. One of their most common roles in the field of neural networks, is in the placement of centres in a radial basis function network.


Regularisation in Sequential Learning Algorithms

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we discuss regularisation in online/sequential learning algorithms.In environments where data arrives sequentially, techniques such as cross-validation to achieve regularisation or model selection are not possible. Further, bootstrapping to determine aconfidence level is not practical. To surmount these problems, a minimum variance estimation approach that makes use of the extended Kalman algorithm for training multi-layer perceptrons isemployed. The novel contribution of this paper is to show the theoretical links between extended Kalman filtering, Sutton's variable learning rate algorithms and Mackay's Bayesian estimation framework.In doing so, we propose algorithms to overcome the need for heuristic choices of the initial conditions and noise covariance matrices in the Kalman approach.


Radial Basis Functions: A Bayesian Treatment

Neural Information Processing Systems

Bayesian methods have been successfully applied to regression and classification problems in multi-layer perceptrons. We present a novel application of Bayesian techniques to Radial Basis Function networks by developing a Gaussian approximation to the posterior distribution which, for fixed basis function widths, is analytic in the parameters. The setting of regularization constants by crossvalidation iswasteful as only a single optimal parameter estimate is retained. We treat this issue by assigning prior distributions to these constants, which are then adapted in light of the data under a simple re-estimation formula. 1 Introduction Radial Basis Function networks are popular regression and classification tools[lO]. For fixed basis function centers, RBFs are linear in their parameters and can therefore betrained with simple one shot linear algebra techniques[lO]. The use of unsupervised techniques to fix the basis function centers is, however, not generally optimal since setting the basis function centers using density estimation on the input data alone takes no account of the target values associated with that data. Ideally, therefore, we should include the target values in the training procedure[7, 3, 9]. Unfortunately, allowingcenters to adapt to the training targets leads to the RBF being a nonlinear function of its parameters, and training becomes more problematic. Most methods that perform supervised training of RBF parameters minimize the ยทPresent address: SNN, University of Nijmegen, Geert Grooteplein 21, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.


Nonlinear Markov Networks for Continuous Variables

Neural Information Processing Systems

We address the problem oflearning structure in nonlinear Markov networks with continuous variables. This can be viewed as non-Gaussian multidimensional densityestimation exploiting certain conditional independencies in the variables. Markov networks are a graphical way of describing conditional independencieswell suited to model relationships which do not exhibit a natural causal ordering. We use neural network structures to model the quantitative relationships between variables.


Selecting Weighting Factors in Logarithmic Opinion Pools

Neural Information Processing Systems

A simple linear averaging of the outputs of several networks as e.g. in bagging [3], seems to follow naturally from a bias/variance decomposition of the sum-squared error. The sum-squared error of the average model is a quadratic function of the weighting factors assigned to the networks in the ensemble [7], suggesting a quadratic programming algorithm for finding the "optimal" weighting factors. If we interpret the output of a network as a probability statement, the sum-squared error corresponds to minus the loglikelihood or the Kullback-Leibler divergence, and linear averaging of the outputs tologarithmic averaging of the probability statements: the logarithmic opinion pool. The crux of this paper is that this whole story about model averaging, bias/variancedecompositions, and quadratic programming to find the optimal weighting factors, is not specific for the sumsquared error,but applies to the combination of probability statements of any kind in a logarithmic opinion pool, as long as the Kullback-Leibler divergence plays the role of the error measure. As examples we treat model averaging for classification models under a cross-entropy error measure and models for estimating variances.


Stacked Density Estimation

Neural Information Processing Systems

The component gj's are usually relatively simple unimodal densities such as Gaussians. Density estimation with mixtures involves finding the locations, shapes, and weights of the component densities from the data (using for example the Expectation-Maximization (EM) procedure). Kernel density estimation canbe viewed as a special case of mixture modeling where a component is centered at each data point, given a weight of 1/N, and a common covariance structure (kernel shape) is estimated from the data. The quality of a particular probabilistic model can be evaluated by an appropriate scoring rule on independent out-of-sample data, such as the test set log-likelihood (also referred to as the log-scoring rule in the Bayesian literature).


Blind Separation of Radio Signals in Fading Channels

Neural Information Processing Systems

We apply information maximization / maximum likelihood blind source separation [2, 6) to complex valued signals mixed with complex valuednonstationary matrices. This case arises in radio communications withbaseband signals. We incorporate known source signal distributions in the adaptation, thus making the algorithms less "blind". This results in drastic reduction of the amount of data needed for successful convergence. Adaptation to rapidly changing signal mixing conditions, such as to fading in mobile communications, becomesnow feasible as demonstrated by simulations. 1 Introduction In SDMA (spatial division multiple access) the purpose is to separate radio signals of interfering users (either intentional or accidental) from each others on the basis of the spatial characteristics of the signals using smart antennas, array processing, and beamforming [5, 8).


Estimating Dependency Structure as a Hidden Variable

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper introduces a probability model, the mixture of trees that can account for sparse, dynamically changing dependence relationships. We present a family of efficient algorithms that use EM and the Minimum Spanning Tree algorithm to find the ML and MAP mixture of trees for a variety of priors, including the Dirichlet and the MDL priors.