This paper presents a simple framework for Horn-clause abduction, with probabilities associated with hypotheses. The framework incorporates assumptions about the rule base and independence assumptions amongst hypotheses. It is shown how any probabilistic knowledge representable in a discrete Bayesian belief network can be represented in this framework. The main contribution is in finding a relationship between logical and probabilistic notions of evidential reasoning. This provides a useful representation language in its own right, providing a compromise between heuristic and epistemic adequacy. It also shows how Bayesian networks can be extended beyond a propositional language.

It is known that exact computation of conditional probabilities in belief networks is NP-hard. Many investigators in the AI community have tacitly assumed that algorithms for performing approximate inference with belief networks are of polynomial complexity. Indeed, special cases of approximate inference can be performed in time polynomial in the input size. However, we have discovered that the general problem of approximating conditional probabilities with belief networks, like exact inference, resides in the NP-hard complexity class. We develop a complexity analysis to elucidate the difficulty of approximate probabilistic inference.

We describe a comprehensive framework for narrative understanding based on Episodic Logic (EL). This situational logic was developed and implemented as a semantic representation and commonsense knowledge representation that would serve the full range of interpretive and inferential needs of general NLU. The most distinctive feature of EL is its natural language-like expressiveness. It allows for generalized quantifiers, lambda abstraction, sentence and predicate modifiers, sentence and predicate reification, intensional predicates (corresponding to wanting, believing, making, etc.), unreliable generalizations, and perhaps most importantly, explicit situational variables (denoting episodes, events, states of affairs, etc.) linked to arbitrary formulas that describe them. These allow episodes to be explicitly related in terms of part-whole, temporal and causal relations. Episodic logical form is easily computed from surface syntax and lends itself to effective inference.

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"Best-first model merging" is a general technique for dynamically choosing the structure of a neural or related architecture while avoiding overfitting. It is applicable to both leaming and recognition tasks and often generalizes significantly better than fixed structures. We demonstrate the approach applied to the tasks of choosing radial basis functions for function learning, choosing local affine models for curve and constraint surface modelling, and choosing the structure of a balltree or bumptree to maximize efficiency of access.

"Best-first model merging" is a general technique for dynamically choosing the structure of a neural or related architecture while avoiding overfitting. It is applicable to both leaming and recognition tasks and often generalizes significantly better than fixed structures. We demonstrate the approach applied to the tasks of choosing radial basis functions for function learning, choosing local affine models for curve and constraint surface modelling, and choosing the structure of a balltree or bumptree to maximize efficiency of access.

In this paper we investigate an average-case model of concept learning, and give results that place the popular statistical physics and VC dimension theories of learning curve behavior in a common framework.

The Bayesian model comparison framework is reviewed, and the Bayesian Occam's razor is explained. This framework can be applied to feedforward networks, making possible (1) objective comparisons between solutions using alternative network architectures; (2) objective choice of magnitude and type of weight decay terms; (3) quantified estimates of the error bars on network parameters and on network output. The framework also generates a measure of the effective number of parameters determined by the data. The relationship of Bayesian model comparison to recent work on prediction of generalisation ability (Guyon et al., 1992, Moody, 1992) is discussed.

In a Bayesian framework, we give a principled account of how domainspecific prior knowledge such as imperfect analytic domain theories can be optimally incorporated into networks of locally-tuned units: by choosing a specific architecture and by applying a specific training regimen. Our method proved successful in overcoming the data deficiency problem in a large-scale application to devise a neural control for a hot line rolling mill. It achieves in this application significantly higher accuracy than optimally-tuned standard algorithms such as sigmoidal backpropagation, and outperforms the state-of-the-art solution.

Networks for reconstructing a sparse or noisy function often use an edge field to segment the function into homogeneous regions, This approach assumes that these regions do not overlap or have disjoint parts, which is often false. For example, images which contain regions split by an occluding object can't be properly reconstructed using this type of network. We have developed a network that overcomes these limitations, using support maps to represent the segmentation of a signal. In our approach, the support of each region in the signal is explicitly represented. Results from an initial implementation demonstrate that this method can reconstruct images and motion sequences which contain complicated occlusion.