Built on seven hills, with unmatched mountain and water views, the wealth of natural beauty in and around Seattle astonishes first-time visitors. Olympic Mountains are to the west. The Washington State Convention 01 is cosponsored by AAAI. Ballard Locks, and the new Experience Approach for Representing Uncertainty" quantity, provided that the use of The monorail by Joseph Y. Halpern, Cornell such excerpts is personal and does not Space Needle and the Experience Music Agents in Adversarial Environments" program is included in your There will IJCAI will welcome three collocated next year and beyond. AI Journal, please contact membership@aaai.org

Fast-forward (FF) was the most successful automatic planner in the Fifth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Planning and Scheduling (AIPS '00) planning systems competition. Like the well-known hsp system, FF relies on forward search in the state space, guided by a heuristic that estimates goal distances by ignoring delete lists. It differs from HSP in a number of important details. This article describes the algorithmic techniques used in FF in comparison to hsp and evaluates their benefits in terms of run-time and solution-length behavior. Humans have a remarkable capability to perform a wide variety of physical and mental tasks without any measurements and any computations. Familiar examples are parking a car, driving in city traffic, playing golf, cooking a meal, and summarizing a story. In performing such tasks, humans use perceptions of time, direction, speed, shape, possibility, likelihood, truth, and other attributes of physical and mental objects. Reflecting the bounded ability of the human brain to resolve detail, perceptions are intrinsically imprecise. In more concrete terms, perceptions are f-granular, meaning that (1) the boundaries of perceived classes are unsharp and (2) the values of attributes are granulated, with a granule being a clump of values (points, objects) drawn together by indistinguishability, similarity, proximity, and function. For example, the granules of age might be labeled very young, young, middle aged, old, very old, and so on. F-granularity of perceptions puts them well beyond the reach of traditional methods of analysis based on predicate logic or probability theory. The computational theory of perceptions (CTP), which is outlined in this article, adds to the armamentarium of AI a capability to compute and reason with perception-based information. The point of departure in CTP is the assumption that perceptions are described by propositions drawn from a natural language; for example, it is unlikely that there will be a significant increase in the price of oil in the near future. In CTP, a proposition, p, is viewed as an answer to a question, and the meaning of p is represented as a generalized constraint. To compute with perceptions, their descriptors are translated into what is called the generalized constraint language (GCL). Then, goal-directed constraint propagation is utilized to answer a given query. A concept that plays a key role in CTP is that of precisiated natural language (PNL). The computational theory of perceptions suggests a new direction in AI -- a direction that might enhance the ability of AI to deal with realworld problems in which decision-relevant information is a mixture of measurements and perceptions. What is not widely recognized is that many important problems in AI fall into this category.

The problem of reinforcement learning in a non-Markov environment is explored using a dynamic Bayesian network, where conditional independence assumptions between random variables are compactly represented by network parameters. The parameters are learned online, and approximations are used to perform inference and to compute the optimal value function. The relative effects of inference and value function approximations on the quality of the final policy are investigated, by learning to solve a moderately difficult driving task. The two value function approximations, linear and quadratic, were found to perform similarly, but the quadratic model was more sensitive to initialization. Both performed below the level of human performance on the task. The dynamic Bayesian network performed comparably to a model using a localist hidden state representation, while requiring exponentially fewer parameters.

Gaussian mixtures (or so-called radial basis function networks) for density estimation provide a natural counterpart to sigmoidal neural networks for function fitting and approximation. In both cases, it is possible to give simple expressions for the iterative improvement of performance as components of the network are introduced one at a time. In particular, for mixture density estimation we show that a k-component mixture estimated by maximum likelihood (or by an iterative likelihood improvement that we introduce) achieves log-likelihood within order 1/k of the log-likelihood achievable by any convex combination. Consequences for approximation and estimation using Kullback-Leibler risk are also given. A Minimum Description Length principle selects the optimal number of components k that minimizes the risk bound. 1 Introduction In density estimation, Gaussian mixtures provide flexible-basis representations for densities that can be used to model heterogeneous data in high dimensions. Consider a parametric family G { pe(x), x E X C Rd': fJ E The main theme of the paper is to give approximation and estimation bounds of arbitrary densities by finite mixture densities.

We present a new technique for time series analysis based on dynamic probabilisticnetworks. In this approach, the observed data are modeled in terms of unobserved, mutually independent factors, as in the recently introduced technique of Independent Factor Analysis (IFA).However, unlike in IFA, the factors are not Li.d.; each factor has its own temporal statistical characteristics. We derive a family of EM algorithms that learn the structure of the underlying factors and their relation to the data. These algorithms perform source separation and noise reduction in an integrated manner, and demonstrate superior performance compared to IFA. 1 Introduction The technique of independent factor analysis (IFA) introduced in [1] provides a tool for modeling L'-dim data in terms of L unobserved factors. These factors are mutually independent and combine linearly with added noise to produce the observed data.

We propose a new approach to the problem of searching a space of stochastic controllers for a Markov decision process (MDP) or a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Following several other authors, our approach is based on searching in parameterized families of policies (for example, via gradient descent) to optimize solution quality. However, rather than trying to estimate the values and derivatives of a policy directly, we do so indirectly using estimates for the probability densities that the policy induces on states at the different points in time. This enables our algorithms to exploit the many techniques for efficient and robust approximate density propagation in stochastic systems. We show how our techniques can be applied both to deterministic propagation schemes (where the MDP's dynamics are given explicitly in compact form,) and to stochastic propagation schemes (where we have access only to a generative model, or simulator, of the MDP).

We describe a Bayesian approach to model selection in unsupervised learning that determines both the feature set and the number of clusters. We then evaluate this scheme (based on marginal likelihood) and one based on cross-validated likelihood. For the Bayesian scheme we derive a closed-form solution of the marginal likelihood by assuming appropriate forms of the likelihood function and prior. Extensive experiments compare these approaches and all results are verified by comparison against ground truth. In these experiments the Bayesian scheme using our objective function gave better results than cross-validation. 1 Introduction Recent efforts define the model selection problem as one of estimating the number of clusters[ 10, 17].

In particular, Mackay showed that by approximating the distributions of the weights with Gaussians and adopting smoothing priors, it is possible to obtain estimates of the weights and output variances and to automatically set the regularisation coefficients. Neal (1996) cast the net much further by introducing advanced Bayesian simulation methods, specifically the hybrid Monte Carlo method, into the analysis of neural networks [3]. Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo methods have also been shown to provide good training results, especially in time-varying scenarios [4]. More recently, Rios Insua and Muller (1998) and Holmes and Mallick (1998) have addressed the issue of selecting the number of hidden neurons with growing and pruning algorithms from a Bayesian perspective [5,6]. In particular, they apply the reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Green [7] to feed-forward sigmoidal networks and radial basis function (RBF) networks to obtain joint estimates of the number of neurons and weights. We also apply the reversible jump MCMC simulation algorithm to RBF networks so as to compute the joint posterior distribution of the radial basis parameters and the number of basis functions. However, we advance this area of research in two important directions. Firstly, we propose a full hierarchical prior for RBF networks.

Local "belief propagation" rules of the sort proposed by Pearl [15] are guaranteed to converge to the correct posterior probabilities in singly connected graphical models. Recently, a number of researchers have empirically demonstrated good performance of "loopy belief propagation" using these same rules on graphs with loops. Perhaps the most dramatic instance is the near Shannon-limit performance of "Turbo codes", whose decoding algorithm is equivalent to loopy belief propagation. Except for the case of graphs with a single loop, there has been little theoretical understanding of the performance of loopy propagation. Here we analyze belief propagation in networks with arbitrary topologies when the nodes in the graph describe jointly Gaussian random variables.

We formulate the problem of retrieving images from visual databases as a problem of Bayesian inference. This leads to natural and effective solutions for two of the most challenging issues in the design of a retrieval system: providing support for region-based queries without requiring prior image segmentation, and accounting for user-feedback during a retrieval session. We present a new learning algorithm that relies on belief propagation to account for both positive and negative examples of the user's interests.