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 Uncertainty


Gaussianization

Neural Information Processing Systems

High dimensional data modeling is difficult mainly because the so-called "curse of dimensionality". We propose a technique called "Gaussianization" forhigh dimensional density estimation, which alleviates the curse of dimensionality by exploiting the independence structures in the data. Gaussianization is motivated from recent developments in the statistics literature: projection pursuit, independent component analysis and Gaussian mixturemodels with semi-tied covariances. We propose an iterative Gaussianizationprocedure which converges weakly: at each iteration, thedata is first transformed to the least dependent coordinates and then each coordinate is marginally Gaussianized by univariate techniques.


Feature Correspondence: A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach

Neural Information Processing Systems

When trying to recover 3D structure from a set of images, the most difficult problem is establishing the correspondence between the measurements. Most existing approaches assume that features can be tracked across frames, whereas methods that exploit rigidity constraints to facilitate matching do so only under restricted camera motion.In this paper we propose a Bayesian approach that avoids the brittleness associated with singling out one "best" correspondence, andinstead consider the distribution over all possible correspondences. We treat both a fully Bayesian approach that yields a posterior distribution, and a MAP approach that makes use of EM to maximize this posterior. We show how Markov chain Monte Carlo methods can be used to implement these techniques in practice, and present experimental results on real data.


Accumulator Networks: Suitors of Local Probability Propagation

Neural Information Processing Systems

The sum-product algorithm can be directly applied in Gaussian networks and in graphs for coding, but for many conditional probabilityfunctions - including the sigmoid function - direct application of the sum-product algorithm is not possible. We introduce "accumulator networks" that have low local complexity (but exponential global complexity) so the sum-product algorithm can be directly applied. In an accumulator network, the probability of a child given its parents is computed by accumulating the inputs from the parents in a Markov chain or more generally a tree. After giving expressions for inference and learning in accumulator networks, wegive results on the "bars problem" and on the problem of extracting translated, overlapping faces from an image. 1 Introduction Graphical probability models with hidden variables are capable of representing complex dependenciesbetween variables, filling in missing data and making Bayesoptimal decisionsusing probabilistic inferences (Hinton and Sejnowski 1986; Pearl 1988; Neal 1992). Large, richly-connected networks with many cycles can potentially beused to model complex sources of data, such as audio signals, images and video. However, when the number of cycles in the network is large (more precisely, when the cut set size is exponential), exact inference becomes intractable. Also, to learn a probability model with hidden variables, we need to fill in the missing data using probabilistic inference, so learning also becomes intractable. To cope with the intractability of exact inference, a variety of approximate inference methods have been invented, including Monte Carlo (Hinton and Sejnowski 1986; Neal 1992), Helmholz machines (Dayan et al. 1995; Hinton et al. 1995), and variational techniques (Jordan et al. 1998).


Propagation Algorithms for Variational Bayesian Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Variational approximations are becoming a widespread tool for Bayesian learning of graphical models. We provide some theoretical resultsfor the variational updates in a very general family of conjugate-exponential graphical models. We show how the belief propagation and the junction tree algorithms can be used in the inference step of variational Bayesian learning. Applying these results tothe Bayesian analysis of linear-Gaussian state-space models we obtain a learning procedure that exploits the Kalman smoothing propagation,while integrating over all model parameters. We demonstrate how this can be used to infer the hidden state dimensionality ofthe state-space model in a variety of synthetic problems and one real high-dimensional data set. 1 Introduction Bayesian approaches to machine learning have several desirable properties. Bayesian integration does not suffer overfitting (since nothing is fit to the data). Prior knowledge canbe incorporated naturally and all uncertainty is manipulated in a consistent manner. Moreover it is possible to learn model structures and readily compare between model classes. Unfortunately, for most models of interest a full Bayesian analysis is computationally intractable.


Bayesian Video Shot Segmentation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Prior knowledge about video structure can be used both as a means to improve the peiformance of content analysis and to extract features that allow semantic classification. We introduce statistical models for two important components of this structure, shot duration and activity, and demonstrate the usefulness of these models by introducing a Bayesian formulation for the shot segmentation problem. The new formulations is shown to extend standard thresholding methods in an adaptive and intuitive way, leading to improved segmentation accuracy.


Active Learning for Parameter Estimation in Bayesian Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Bayesian networks are graphical representations of probability distributions. In virtually all of the work on learning these networks, the assumption is that we are presented with a data set consisting of randomly generated instances from the underlying distribution. In many situations, however, we also have the option of active learning, where we have the possibility of guiding the sampling process by querying for certain types of samples. This paper addresses the problem of estimating the parameters of Bayesian networks in an active learning setting. We provide a theoretical framework for this problem, and an algorithm that chooses which active learning queries to generate based on the model learned so far. We present experimental results showing that our active learning algorithm can significantly reduce the need for training data in many situations.


On Reversing Jensen's Inequality

Neural Information Processing Systems

Jensen's inequality is a powerful mathematical tool and one of the workhorses in statistical learning. Its applications therein include the EM algorithm, Bayesian estimation and Bayesian inference. Jensen computes simplelower bounds on otherwise intractable quantities such as products of sums and latent log-likelihoods. This simplification then permits operationslike integration and maximization. Quite often (i.e. in discriminative learning) upper bounds are needed as well. We derive and prove an efficient analytic inequality that provides such variational upper bounds. This inequality holds for latent variable mixtures of exponential family distributions and thus spans a wide range of contemporary statistical models.We also discuss applications of the upper bounds including maximum conditional likelihood, large margin discriminative models and conditional Bayesian inference. Convergence, efficiency and prediction results are shown.


Generalized Belief Propagation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Belief propagation (BP) was only supposed to work for treelike networks but works surprisingly well in many applications involving networks with loops, including turbo codes. However, there has been little understanding of the algorithm or the nature of the solutions it finds for general graphs. We show that BP can only converge to a stationary point of an approximate free energy, known as the Bethe free energy in statistical physics.This result characterizes BP fixed-points and makes connections with variational approaches to approximate inference. More importantly, our analysis lets us build on the progress made in statistical physics since Bethe's approximation was introduced in 1935. Kikuchi and others have shown how to construct more accurate freeenergy approximations, of which Bethe's approximation is the simplest.


The Manhattan World Assumption: Regularities in Scene Statistics which Enable Bayesian Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

Our focus, however, is on the discovery of scene statistics which are useful for solving visual inference problems. For example, in related work [5] we have analyzed the statistics of filter responses on and off edges and hence derived effective edge detectors.


The Use of MDL to Select among Computational Models of Cognition

Neural Information Processing Systems

How should we decide among competing explanations of a cognitive process given limited observations? The problem of model selection is at the heart of progress in cognitive science. In this paper, Minimum Description Length (MDL) is introduced as a method for selecting among computational models of cognition. We also show that differential geometry provides an intuitive understanding of what drives model selection in MDL. Finally, adequacy of MDL is demonstrated in two areas of cognitive modeling.