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 Uncertainty


Learning Spike-Based Correlations and Conditional Probabilities in Silicon

Neural Information Processing Systems

We have designed and fabricated a VLSI synapse that can learn a conditional probability or correlation between spike-based inputs and feedback signals. The synapse is low power, compact, provides nonvolatile weight storage, and can perform simultaneous multiplication and adaptation. We can calibrate arrays of synapses to ensure uniform adaptation characteristics. Finally, adaptation in our synapse does not necessarily depend on the signals used for computation. Consequently, our synapse can implement learning rules that correlate past and present synaptic activity. We provide analysis and experimental chip results demonstrating the operation in learning and calibration mode, and show how to use our synapse to implement various learning rules in silicon.


Global Coordination of Local Linear Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

High dimensional data that lies on or near a low dimensional manifold can be described by a collection of local linear models. Such a description, however, does not provide a global parameterization of the manifold--arguably an important goal of unsupervised learning. In this paper, we show how to learn a collection of local linear models that solves this more difficult problem. Our local linear models are represented by a mixture of factor analyzers, and the "global coordination" of these models is achieved by adding a regularizing term to the standard maximum likelihood objective function. The regularizer breaks a degeneracy in the mixture model's parameter space, favoring models whose internal coordinate systems are aligned in a consistent way. As a result, the internal coordinates change smoothly and continuously as one traverses a connected path on the manifold--even when the path crosses the domains of many different local models. The regularizer takes the form of a Kullback-Leibler divergence and illustrates an unexpected application of variational methods: not to perform approximate inference in intractable probabilistic models, but to learn more useful internal representations in tractable ones.


Products of Gaussians

Neural Information Processing Systems

Recently Hinton (1999) has introduced the Products of Experts (PoE) model in which several individual probabilistic models for data are combined to provide an overall model of the data. Below we consider PoE models in which each expert is a Gaussian. Although the product of Gaussians is also a Gaussian, if each Gaussian has a simple structure the product can have a richer structure. We examine (1) Products of Gaussian pancakes which give rise to probabilistic Minor Components Analysis, (2) products of I-factor PPCA models and (3) a products of experts construction for an AR(l) process. Recently Hinton (1999) has introduced the Products of Experts (PoE) model in which several individual probabilistic models for data are combined to provide an overall model of the data. In this paper we consider PoE models in which each expert is a Gaussian. It is easy to see that in this case the product model will also be Gaussian. However, if each Gaussian has a simple structure, the product can have a richer structure. Using Gaussian experts is attractive as it permits a thorough analysis of the product architecture, which can be difficult with other models, e.g.


A Bayesian Network for Real-Time Musical Accompaniment

Neural Information Processing Systems

We describe a computer system that provides a real-time musical accompaniment for a live soloist in a piece of non-improvised music for soloist and accompaniment. A Bayesian network is developed that represents the joint distribution on the times at which the solo and accompaniment notes are played, relating the two parts through a layer of hidden variables. The network is first constructed using the rhythmic information contained in the musical score. The network is then trained to capture the musical interpretations of the soloist and accompanist in an off-line rehearsal phase. During live accompaniment the learned distribution of the network is combined with a real-time analysis of the soloist's acoustic signal, performed with a hidden Markov model, to generate a musically principled accompaniment that respects all available sources of knowledge. A live demonstration will be provided.


Sequential Noise Compensation by Sequential Monte Carlo Method

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a sequential Monte Carlo method applied to additive noise compensation for robust speech recognition in time-varying noise. The method generates a set of samples according to the prior distribution given by clean speech models and noise prior evolved from previous estimation. An explicit model representing noise effects on speech features is used, so that an extended Kalman filter is constructed for each sample, generating the updated continuous state estimate as the estimation of the noise parameter, and prediction likelihood for weighting each sample. Minimum mean square error (MMSE) inference of the time-varying noise parameter is carried out over these samples by fusion the estimation of samples according to their weights. A residual resampling selection step and a Metropolis-Hastings smoothing step are used to improve calculation efficiency. Experiments were conducted on speech recognition in simulated non-stationary noises, where noise power changed artificially, and highly non-stationary Machinegun noise. In all the experiments carried out, we observed that the method can have significant recognition performance improvement, over that achieved by noise compensation with stationary noise assumption.


Batch Value Function Approximation via Support Vectors

Neural Information Processing Systems

Virtually all existing work on value function approximation and policy-gradient methods starts with a parameterized formula for the value function or policy and thenseeks to find the best policythat canbe representedinthat parameterizedform. This can give rise to very difficult search problems for which the Bellman equation is of little or no use. In this paper, we take a different approach: rather than fixing the form of the function approximator and searching for a representable policy, we instead identify a good policy and then search for a function approximator that can represent it. Our approach exploits the ability of mathematical programming to represent a variety of constraints including those that derive from supervised learning, from advantage learning (Baird, 1993), and from the Bellman equation. By combining the kernel trick with mathematical programming, we obtain a function approximator that seeks to find the smallest number of support vectors sufficient to represent the desired policy.


Multiplicative Updates for Classification by Mixture Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

We investigate a learning algorithm for the classification of nonnegative data by mixture models. Multiplicative update rules are derived that directly optimize the performance of these models as classifiers. The update rules have a simple closed form and an intuitive appeal. Our algorithm retains the main virtues of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm--its guarantee of monotonic improvement, and its absence of tuning parameters--with the added advantage of optimizing a discriminative objective function. The algorithm reduces as a special case to the method of generalized iterative scaling for log-linear models. The learning rate of the algorithm is controlled by the sparseness of the training data. We use the method of nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) to discover sparse distributed representations of the data. This form of feature selection greatly accelerates learning and makes the algorithm practical on large problems. Experiments show that discriminatively trained mixture models lead to much better classification than comparably sized models trained by EM.


Estimating the Reliability of ICA Projections

Neural Information Processing Systems

When applying unsupervised learning techniques like ICA or temporal decorrelation, a key question is whether the discovered projections are reliable. In other words: can we give error bars or can we assess the quality of our separation? We use resampling methods to tackle these questions and show experimentally that our proposed variance estimations are strongly correlated to the separation error. We demonstrate that this reliability estimation can be used to choose the appropriate ICA-model, to enhance significantly the separation performance, and, most important, to mark the components that have a actual physical meaning.


Probabilistic Inference of Hand Motion from Neural Activity in Motor Cortex

Neural Information Processing Systems

Statistical learning and probabilistic inference techniques are used to infer the hand position of a subject from multi-electrode recordings of neural activity in motor cortex. First, an array of electrodes provides training data of neural firing conditioned on hand kinematics. We learn a nonparametric representation of this firing activity using a Bayesian model and rigorously compare it with previous models using cross-validation. Second, we infer a posterior probability distribution over hand motion conditioned on a sequence of neural test data using Bayesian inference. The learned firing models of multiple cells are used to define a non-Gaussian likelihood term which is combined with a prior probability for the kinematics. A particle filtering method is used to represent, update, and propagate the posterior distribution over time. The approach is compared with traditional linear filtering methods; the results suggest that it may be appropriate for neural prosthetic applications.


Model Based Population Tracking and Automatic Detection of Distribution Changes

Neural Information Processing Systems

Probabilistic mixture models are used for a broad range of data analysis tasks such as clustering, classification, predictive modeling, etc. Due to their inherent probabilistic nature, mixture models can easily be combined with other probabilistic or non-probabilistic techniques thus forming more complex data analysis systems. In the case of online data (where there is a stream of data available) models can be constantly updated to reflect the most current distribution of the incoming data. However, in many business applications the models themselves represent a parsimonious summary of the data and therefore it is not desirable to change models frequently, much less with every new data point. In such a framework it becomes crucial to track the applicability of the mixture model and detect the point in time when the model fails to adequately represent the data. In this paper we formulate the problem of change detection and propose a principled solution. Empirical results over both synthetic and real-life data sets are presented.