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 Uncertainty


Facial Memory Is Kernel Density Estimation (Almost)

Neural Information Processing Systems

We compare the ability of three exemplar-based memory models, each using three different face stimulus representations, to account for the probability a human subject responded "old" in an old/new facial memory experiment. The models are 1) the Generalized Context Model, 2) SimSample, a probabilistic sampling model, and 3) MMOM, a novel model related to kernel density estimation that explicitly encodes stimulus distinctiveness. The representations are 1) positions of stimuli in MDS "face space," 2) projections of test faces onto the "eigenfaces" of the study set, and 3) a representation based on response to a grid of Gabor filter jets. Of the 9 model/representation combinations, only the distinctiveness model in MDS space predicts the observed "morph familiarity inversion" effect, in which the subjects' false alarm rate for morphs between similar faces is higher than their hit rate for many of the studied faces. This evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that human memory for faces is a kernel density estimation task, with the caveat that distinctive faces require larger kernels than do typical faces.


Probabilistic Image Sensor Fusion

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a probabilistic method for fusion of images produced by multiple sensors. The approach is based on an image formation model in which the sensor images are noisy, locally linear functions of an underlying, true scene. A Bayesian framework then provides for maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori estimates of the true scene from the sensor images. Maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of the image formation model involve (local) second order image statistics, and thus are related to local principal component analysis. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method on images from visible-band and infrared sensors. 1 Introduction Advances in sensing devices have fueled the deployment of multiple sensors in several computational vision systems [1, for example]. Using multiple sensors can increase reliability with respect to single sensor systems.



Reinforcement Learning Based on On-Line EM Algorithm

Neural Information Processing Systems

On the other hand, applications to continuous state/action problems (Werbos, 1990; Doya, 1996; Sofge & White, 1992) are much more difficult than the finite state/action cases. Good function approximation methods and fast learning algorithms are crucial for successful applications. In this article, we propose a new RL method that has the above-mentioned two features. This method is based on an actor-critic architecture (Barto et al., 1983), although the detailed implementations of the actor and the critic are quite differ- Reinforcement Learning Based on On-Line EM Algorithm 1053 ent from those in the original actor-critic model. The actor and the critic in our method estimate a policy and a Q-function, respectively, and are approximated by Normalized Gaussian Networks (NGnet) (l'doody & Darken, 1989).


Bayesian Modeling of Facial Similarity

Neural Information Processing Systems

In previous work [6, 9, 10], we advanced a new technique for direct visual matching of images for the purposes of face recognition and image retrieval, using a probabilistic measure of similarity based primarily on a Bayesian (MAP) analysis of image differences, leading to a "dual" basis similar to eigenfaces [13]. The performance advantage of this probabilistic matching technique over standard Euclidean nearest-neighbor eigenface matching was recently demonstrated using results from DARPA's 1996 "FERET" face recognition competition, in which this probabilistic matching algorithm was found to be the top performer. We have further developed a simple method of replacing the costly com put ion of nonlinear (online) Bayesian similarity measures by the relatively inexpensive computation of linear (offline) subspace projections and simple (online) Euclidean norms, thus resulting in a significant computational speedup for implementation with very large image databases as typically encountered in real-world applications.




Maximum-Likelihood Continuity Mapping (MALCOM): An Alternative to HMMs

Neural Information Processing Systems

We describe Maximum-Likelihood Continuity Mapping (MALCOM), an alternative to hidden Markov models (HMMs) for processing sequence data such as speech. While HMMs have a discrete "hidden" space constrained by a fixed finite-automaton architecture, MALCOM has a continuous hidden space-a continuity map-that is constrained only by a smoothness requirement on paths through the space. MALCOM fits into the same probabilistic framework for speech recognition as HMMs, but it represents a more realistic model of the speech production process. To evaluate the extent to which MALCOM captures speech production information, we generated continuous speech continuity maps for three speakers and used the paths through them to predict measured speech articulator data. The median correlation between the MALCOM paths obtained from only the speech acoustics and articulator measurements was 0.77 on an independent test set not used to train MALCOM or the predictor.


An Entropic Estimator for Structure Discovery

Neural Information Processing Systems

We introduce a novel framework for simultaneous structure and parameter learning in hidden-variable conditional probability models, based on an en tropic prior and a solution for its maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator. The MAP estimate minimizes uncertainty in all respects: cross-entropy between model and data; entropy of the model; entropy of the data's descriptive statistics. Iterative estimation extinguishes weakly supported parameters, compressing and sparsifying the model. Trimming operators accelerate this process by removing excess parameters and, unlike most pruning schemes, guarantee an increase in posterior probability. Entropic estimation takes a overcomplete random model and simplifies it, inducing the structure of relations between hidden and observed variables. Applied to hidden Markov models (HMMs), it finds a concise finite-state machine representing the hidden structure of a signal. We entropically model music, handwriting, and video time-series, and show that the resulting models are highly concise, structured, predictive, and interpretable: Surviving states tend to be highly correlated with meaningful partitions of the data, while surviving transitions provide a low-perplexity model of the signal dynamics.


Convergence Rates of Algorithms for Visual Search: Detecting Visual Contours

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper formulates the problem of visual search as Bayesian inference and defines a Bayesian ensemble of problem instances. In particular, we address the problem of the detection of visual contours in noise/clutter by optimizing a global criterion which combines local intensity and geometry information.