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 Uncertainty


A Model for Learning the Semantics of Pictures

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose an approach to learning the semantics of images which allows usto automatically annotate an image with keywords and to retrieve images based on text queries. We do this using a formalism that models the generation of annotated images. We assume that every image is divided intoregions, each described by a continuous-valued feature vector. Given a training set of images with annotations, we compute a joint probabilistic modelof image features and words which allow us to predict the probability of generating a word given the image regions. This may be used to automatically annotate and retrieve images given a word as a query. Experiments show that our model significantly outperforms the best of the previously reported results on the tasks of automatic image annotation and retrieval.


Hierarchical Topic Models and the Nested Chinese Restaurant Process

Neural Information Processing Systems

We address the problem of learning topic hierarchies from data. The model selection problem in this domain is daunting--which of the large collection of possible trees to use? We take a Bayesian approach, generating anappropriate prior via a distribution on partitions that we refer to as the nested Chinese restaurant process. This nonparametric prior allows arbitrarilylarge branching factors and readily accommodates growing data collections. We build a hierarchical topic model by combining this prior with a likelihood that is based on a hierarchical variant of latent Dirichlet allocation. We illustrate our approach on simulated data and with an application to the modeling of NIPS abstracts.


Semi-Supervised Learning with Trees

Neural Information Processing Systems

We describe a nonparametric Bayesian approach to generalizing from few labeled examples, guided by a larger set of unlabeled objects and the assumption of a latent tree-structure to the domain. The tree (or a distribution over trees) may be inferred using the unlabeled data. A prior over concepts generated by a mutation process on the inferred tree(s) allows efficient computation of the optimal Bayesian classification function fromthe labeled examples. We test our approach on eight real-world datasets.


Extreme Components Analysis

Neural Information Processing Systems

Principal components analysis (PCA) is one of the most widely used techniques in machine learning and data mining. Minor components analysis (MCA) is less well known, but can also play an important role in the presence of constraints on the data distribution. In this paper we present a probabilistic model for "extreme components analysis" (XCA) which at the maximum likelihood solution extracts an optimal combination ofprincipal and minor components. For a given number of components, thelog-likelihood of the XCA model is guaranteed to be larger or equal than that of the probabilistic models for PCA and MCA. We describe anefficient algorithm to solve for the globally optimal solution. For log-convex spectra we prove that the solution consists of principal components only, while for log-concave spectra the solution consists of minor components. In general, the solution admits a combination of both. In experiments we explore the properties of XCA on some synthetic and real-world datasets.


Learning Bounds for a Generalized Family of Bayesian Posterior Distributions

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper we obtain convergence bounds for the concentration of Bayesian posterior distributions (around the true distribution) using a novel method that simplifies and enhances previous results. Based on the analysis, we also introduce a generalized family of Bayesian posteriors, and show that the convergence behavior of these generalized posteriors is completely determined by the local prior structure around the true distribution. Thisimportant and surprising robustness property does not hold for the standard Bayesian posterior in that it may not concentrate when there exist "bad" prior structures even at places far away from the true distribution.


An Improved Scheme for Detection and Labelling in Johansson Displays

Neural Information Processing Systems

Consider a number of moving points, where each point is attached to a joint of the human body and projected onto an image plane. Johannson showed that humans can effortlessly detect and recognize thepresence of other humans from such displays. This is true even when some of the body points are missing (e.g. because of occlusion) and unrelated clutter points are added to the display. We are interested in replicating this ability in a machine. To this end, we present a labelling and detection scheme in a probabilistic framework. Our method is based on representing the joint probability densityof positions and velocities of body points with a graphical model, and using Loopy Belief Propagation to calculate a likely interpretation of the scene. Furthermore, we introduce a global variable representing the body's centroid. Experiments on one motion-captured sequence suggest that our scheme improves on the accuracy of a previous approach based on triangulated graphical models,especially when very few parts are visible. The improvement isdue both to the more general graph structure we use and, more significantly, to the introduction of the centroid variable.



Perspectives on Sparse Bayesian Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Recently, relevance vector machines (RVM) have been fashioned from a sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) framework to perform supervised learning usinga weight prior that encourages sparsity of representation. The methodology incorporates an additional set of hyperparameters governing theprior, one for each weight, and then adopts a specific approximation tothe full marginalization over all weights and hyperparameters. Despite its empirical success however, no rigorous motivation for this particular approximation is currently available. To address this issue, we demonstrate that SBL can be recast as the application of a rigorous variational approximationto the full model by expressing the prior in a dual form. This formulation obviates the necessity of assuming any hyperpriors andleads to natural, intuitive explanations of why sparsity is achieved in practice.



Semidefinite Relaxations for Approximate Inference on Graphs with Cycles

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a new method for calculating approximate marginals for probability distributions defined by graphs with cycles, based on a Gaussian entropybound combined with a semidefinite outer bound on the marginal polytope. This combination leads to a log-determinant maximization problemthat can be solved by efficient interior point methods [8]. As with the Bethe approximation and its generalizations [12], the optimizing arguments of this problem can be taken as approximations to the exact marginals. In contrast to Bethe/Kikuchi approaches, our variational problemis strictly convex and so has a unique global optimum. An additional desirable feature is that the value of the optimal solution is guaranteed to provide an upper bound on the log partition function. In experimental trials, the performance of the log-determinant relaxation is comparable to or better than the sum-product algorithm, and by a substantial marginfor certain problem classes. Finally, the zero-temperature limit of our log-determinant relaxation recovers a class of well-known semidefinite relaxations for integer programming [e.g., 3].