We present a new method for calculating approximate marginals for probability distributions defined by graphs with cycles, based on a Gaussian entropy bound combined with a semidefinite outer bound on the marginal polytope. This combination leads to a log-determinant maximization problem that can be solved by efficient interior point methods [8]. As with the Bethe approximation and its generalizations [12], the optimizing arguments of this problem can be taken as approximations to the exact marginals. In contrast to Bethe/Kikuchi approaches, our variational problem is strictly convex and so has a unique global optimum. An additional desirable feature is that the value of the optimal solution is guaranteed to provide an upper bound on the log partition function. In experimental trials, the performance of the log-determinant relaxation is comparable to or better than the sum-product algorithm, and by a substantial margin for certain problem classes. Finally, the zero-temperature limit of our log-determinant relaxation recovers a class of well-known semidefinite relaxations for integer programming [e.g., 3].

Recent work has examined the estimation of models of stimulus-driven neural activity in which some linear filtering process is followed by a nonlinear, probabilistic spiking stage. We analyze the estimation of one such model for which this nonlinear step is implemented by a noisy, leaky, integrate-and-fire mechanism with a spike-dependent aftercurrent. This model is a biophysically plausible alternative to models with Poisson (memory-less) spiking, and has been shown to effectively reproduce various spiking statistics of neurons in vivo. However, the problem of estimating the model from extracellular spike train data has not been examined in depth. We formulate the problem in terms of maximum likelihood estimation, and show that the computational problem of maximizing the likelihood is tractable.

This allows for non-Gaussian processes and non-Gaussian noise. The learning algorithm chooses a nonlinear transformation such that transformed data is well-modelled by a GP. This can be seen as including a preprocessing transformation as an integral part of the probabilistic modelling problem, rather than as an ad-hoc step. We demonstrate on several real regression problems that learning the transformation can lead to significantly better performance than using a regular GP, or a GP with a fixed transformation.

We address the problem of learning topic hierarchies from data. The model selection problem in this domain is daunting--which of the large collection of possible trees to use? We take a Bayesian approach, generating an appropriate prior via a distribution on partitions that we refer to as the nested Chinese restaurant process. This nonparametric prior allows arbitrarily large branching factors and readily accommodates growing data collections. We build a hierarchical topic model by combining this prior with a likelihood that is based on a hierarchical variant of latent Dirichlet allocation. We illustrate our approach on simulated data and with an application to the modeling of NIPS abstracts.

The bootstrap has become a popular method for exploring model (structure) uncertainty. Our experiments with artificial and realworld data demonstrate that the graphs learned from bootstrap samples can be severely biased towards too complex graphical models. Accounting for this bias is hence essential, e.g., when exploring model uncertainty. We find that this bias is intimately tied to (well-known) spurious dependences induced by the bootstrap. The leading-order bias-correction equals one half of Akaike's penalty for model complexity. We demonstrate the effect of this simple bias-correction in our experiments. We also relate this bias to the bias of the plugin estimator for entropy, as well as to the difference between the expected test and training errors of a graphical model, which asymptotically equals Akaike's penalty (rather than one half).

In this paper we present Discriminative Random Fields (DRF), a discriminative framework for the classification of natural image regions by incorporating neighborhood spatial dependencies in the labels as well as the observed data. The proposed model exploits local discriminative models and allows to relax the assumption of conditional independence of the observed data given the labels, commonly used in the Markov Random Field (MRF) framework. The parameters of the DRF model are learned using penalized maximum pseudo-likelihood method. Furthermore, the form of the DRF model allows the MAP inference for binary classification problems using the graph min-cut algorithms. The performance of the model was verified on the synthetic as well as the real-world images. The DRF model outperforms the MRF model in the experiments.

When we learn a new motor skill, we have to contend with both the variability inherent in our sensors and the task. The sensory uncertainty can be reduced by using information about the distribution of previously experienced tasks. Here we impose a distribution on a novel sensorimotor task and manipulate the variability of the sensory feedback. We show that subjects internally represent both the distribution of the task as well as their sensory uncertainty. Moreover, they combine these two sources of information in a way that is qualitatively predicted by optimal Bayesian processing. We further analyze if the subjects can represent multimodal distributions such as mixtures of Gaussians. The results show that the CNS employs probabilistic models during sensorimotor learning even when the priors are multimodal.

When we model a higher order functions, such as learning and memory, we face a difficulty of comparing neural activities with hidden variables that depend on the history of sensory and motor signals and the dynamics of the network. Here, we propose novel method for estimating hidden variables of a learning agent, such as connection weights from sequences of observable variables. Bayesian estimation is a method to estimate the posterior probability of hidden variables from observable data sequence using a dynamic model of hidden and observable variables. In this paper, we apply particle filter for estimating internal parameters and metaparameters of a reinforcement learning model. We verified the effectiveness of the method using both artificial data and real animal behavioral data.

In this paper we obtain convergence bounds for the concentration of Bayesian posterior distributions (around the true distribution) using a novel method that simplifies and enhances previous results. Based on the analysis, we also introduce a generalized family of Bayesian posteriors, and show that the convergence behavior of these generalized posteriors is completely determined by the local prior structure around the true distribution. This important and surprising robustness property does not hold for the standard Bayesian posterior in that it may not concentrate when there exist "bad" prior structures even at places far away from the true distribution.

We propose an approach to learning the semantics of images which allows us to automatically annotate an image with keywords and to retrieve images based on text queries. We do this using a formalism that models the generation of annotated images. We assume that every image is divided into regions, each described by a continuous-valued feature vector. Given a training set of images with annotations, we compute a joint probabilistic model of image features and words which allow us to predict the probability of generating a word given the image regions. This may be used to automatically annotate and retrieve images given a word as a query. Experiments show that our model significantly outperforms the best of the previously reported results on the tasks of automatic image annotation and retrieval.