Uncertainty
Joint Tracking of Pose, Expression, and Texture using Conditionally Gaussian Filters
Marks, Tim K., Roddey, J. C., Movellan, Javier R., Hershey, John R.
We present a generative model and stochastic filtering algorithm for simultaneous trackingof 3D position and orientation, nonrigid motion, object texture, and background texture using a single camera. We show that the solution to this problem is formally equivalent to stochastic filtering ofconditionally Gaussian processes, a problem for which well known approaches exist [3, 8]. We propose an approach based on Monte Carlo sampling of the nonlinear component of the process (object motion) andexact filtering of the object and background textures given the sampled motion. The smoothness of image sequences in time and space is exploited by using Laplace's method to generate proposal distributions for importance sampling [7]. The resulting inference algorithm encompasses bothoptic flow and template-based tracking as special cases, and elucidates the conditions under which these methods are optimal. We demonstrate an application of the system to 3D nonrigid face tracking.
Constraining a Bayesian Model of Human Visual Speed Perception
Stocker, Alan A., Simoncelli, Eero P.
It has been demonstrated that basic aspects of human visual motion perception arequalitatively consistent with a Bayesian estimation framework, where the prior probability distribution on velocity favors slow speeds. Here, we present a refined probabilistic model that can account for the typical trial-to-trial variabilities observed in psychophysical speed perception experiments. We also show that data from such experiments can be used to constrain both the likelihood and prior functions of the model. Specifically, we measured matching speeds and thresholds in a two-alternative forced choice speed discrimination task. Parametric fits to the data reveal that the likelihood function is well approximated by a LogNormal distribution with a characteristic contrast-dependent variance, andthat the prior distribution on velocity exhibits significantly heavier tails than a Gaussian, and approximately follows a power-law function.
Conditional Random Fields for Object Recognition
Quattoni, Ariadna, Collins, Michael, Darrell, Trevor
We present a discriminative part-based approach for the recognition of object classes from unsegmented cluttered scenes. Objects are modeled as flexible constellations of parts conditioned on local observations found by an interest operator. For each object class the probability of a given assignment of parts to local features is modeled by a Conditional Random Field(CRF). We propose an extension of the CRF framework that incorporates hidden variables and combines class conditional CRFs into a unified framework for part-based object recognition. The parameters of the CRF are estimated in a maximum likelihood framework and recognition proceedsby finding the most likely class under our model. The main advantage of the proposed CRF framework is that it allows us to relax the assumption of conditional independence of the observed data (i.e.
Common-Frame Model for Object Recognition
Moreels, Pierre, Perona, Pietro
A generative probabilistic model for objects in images is presented. An object consists of a constellation of features. Feature appearance and pose are modeled probabilistically. Scene images are generated by drawing aset of objects from a given database, with random clutter sprinkled on the remaining image surface.
Semi-parametric Exponential Family PCA
Sajama, Sajama, Orlitsky, Alon
We present a semi-parametric latent variable model based technique for density modelling, dimensionality reduction and visualization. Unlike previous methods, we estimate the latent distribution non-parametrically which enables us to model data generated by an underlying low dimensional, multimodaldistribution. In addition, we allow the components of latent variable models to be drawn from the exponential family which makes the method suitable for special data types, for example binary or count data. Simulations on real valued, binary and count data show favorable comparisonto other related schemes both in terms of separating different populations and generalization to unseen samples.
Expectation Consistent Free Energies for Approximate Inference
We propose a novel a framework for deriving approximations for intractable probabilisticmodels. This framework is based on a free energy (negative log marginal likelihood) and can be seen as a generalization of adaptive TAP [1, 2, 3] and expectation propagation (EP) [4, 5]. The free energy is constructed from two approximating distributions which encode different aspects of the intractable model such a single node constraints andcouplings and are by construction consistent on a chosen set of moments. We test the framework on a difficult benchmark problem with binary variables on fully connected graphs and 2D grid graphs. We find good performance using sets of moments which either specify factorized nodesor a spanning tree on the nodes (structured approximation). Surprisingly, the Bethe approximation gives very inferior results even on grids.
A Probabilistic Model for Online Document Clustering with Application to Novelty Detection
Zhang, Jian, Ghahramani, Zoubin, Yang, Yiming
In this paper we propose a probabilistic model for online document clustering. Weuse nonparametric Dirichlet process prior to model the growing number of clusters, and use a prior of general English language model as the base distribution to handle the generation of novel clusters. Furthermore, cluster uncertainty is modeled with a Bayesian Dirichletmultinomial distribution.We use empirical Bayes method to estimate hyperparameters based on a historical dataset. Our probabilistic model is applied to the novelty detection task in Topic Detection and Tracking (TDT) and compared with existing approaches in the literature.
Similarity and Discrimination in Classical Conditioning: A Latent Variable Account
Courville, Aaron C., Daw, Nathaniel D., Touretzky, David S.
We propose a probabilistic, generative account of configural learning phenomena in classical conditioning. Configural learning experiments probe how animals discriminate and generalize between patterns of simultaneously presentedstimuli (such as tones and lights) that are differentially predictive of reinforcement. Previous models of these issues have been successful more on a phenomenological than an explanatory level: they reproduce experimental findings but, lacking formal foundations, providescant basis for understanding why animals behave as they do. We present a theory that clarifies seemingly arbitrary aspects of previous modelswhile also capturing a broader set of data.
Log-concavity Results on Gaussian Process Methods for Supervised and Unsupervised Learning
Log-concavity is an important property in the context of optimization, Laplace approximation, and sampling; Bayesian methods based on Gaussian processpriors have become quite popular recently for classification, regression, density estimation, and point process intensity estimation. Here we prove that the predictive densities corresponding to each of these applications are log-concave, given any observed data. We also prove that the likelihood is log-concave in the hyperparameters controlling the mean function of the Gaussian prior in the density and point process intensity estimationcases, and the mean, covariance, and observation noise parameters in the classification and regression cases; this result leads to a useful parameterization of these hyperparameters, indicating a suitably large class of priors for which the corresponding maximum a posteriori problem is log-concave. Introduction Bayesian methods based on Gaussian process priors have recently become quite popular for machine learning tasks (1). These techniques have enjoyed a good deal of theoretical examination, documenting their learning-theoretic (generalization) properties (2), and developing avariety of efficient computational schemes (e.g., (3-5), and references therein).