The application of latent/hidden variable Dynamic Bayesian Networks is constrained by the complexity of marginalising over latent variables. For this reason either small latent dimensions or Gaussian latent conditional tables linearly dependent on past states are typically considered in order that inference is tractable. We suggest an alternative approach in which the latent variables are modelled using deterministic conditional probability tables. This specialisation has the advantage of tractable inference even for highly complex nonlinear/non-Gaussian visible conditional probability tables. This approach enables the consideration of highly complex latent dynamics whilst retaining the benefits of a tractable probabilistic model.

In the Bayesian approach, regularization is achieved by specifying a prior distribution over the parameters and subsequently averaging over the posterior distribution. This regularization provides not only smoother estimates of the parameters compared to maximum likelihood but also guides the selection of model structures. It was pointed out in [6] that a very large scale parameter of the Dirichlet prior can degrade predictive accuracy due to severe regularization of the parameter estimates. We complement this discussion here and show that a very small scale parameter can lead to poor over-regularized structures when a product of (conjugate) Dirichlet priors is used over multinomial conditional distributions (Section 3). Section 4 demonstrates the effect of the scale parameter and how it can be calibrated. We focus on the class of Bayesian network models throughout this paper.

Machine learning has reached a point where many probabilistic methods can be understood as variations, extensions and combinations of a much smaller set of abstract themes, e.g., as different instances of the EM algorithm. This enables the systematic derivation of algorithms customized for different models.

We present a simple direct approach for solving the ICA problem, using density estimation and maximum likelihood. Given a candidate orthogonal frame, we model each of the coordinates using a semi-parametric density estimate based on cubic splines. Since our estimates have two continuous derivatives, we can easily run a second order search for the frame parameters. Our method performs very favorably when compared to state-of-the-art techniques. 1 Introduction Independent component analysis (ICA) is a popular enhancement over principal component analysis (PCA) and factor analysis. IRP which is assumed to arise from a linear mixing of a latent random source vector S E IRP, (1) X AS; the components Sj, j 1,...,p of S are assumed to be independently distributed.

Several authors have suggested viewing boosting as a gradient descent search for a good fit in function space. We apply gradient-based boosting methodology to the unsupervised learning problem of density estimation. We show convergence properties of the algorithm and prove that a strength of weak learnability property applies to this problem as well. We illustrate the potential of this approach through experiments with boosting Bayesian networks to learn density models.

We present a framework for sparse Gaussian process (GP) methods which uses forward selection with criteria based on informationtheoretic principles, previously suggested for active learning. Our goal is not only to learn d-sparse predictors (which can be evaluated in O(d) rather than O(n), d n, n the number of training points), but also to perform training under strong restrictions on time and memory requirements.

We study an explicit parametric model of documents, queries, and relevancy assessment for Information Retrieval (IR). Mean-field methods are applied to analyze the model and derive efficient practical algorithms to estimate the parameters in the problem. The hyperparameters are estimated by a fast approximate leave-one-out cross-validation procedure based on the cavity method. The algorithm is further evaluated on several benchmark databases by comparing with standard algorithms in IR.

We investigate Bayesian alternatives to classical Monte Carlo methods for evaluating integrals. Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) allows the incorporation of prior knowledge, such as smoothness of the integrand, into the estimation. In a simple problem we show that this outperforms any classical importance sampling method. We also attempt more challenging multidimensional integrals involved in computing marginal likelihoods of statistical models (a.k.a.

We consider loopy belief propagation for approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models. A limitation of the standard algorithm is that clique marginals are computed as if there were no loops in the graph. To overcome this limitation, we introduce fractional belief propagation. Fractional belief propagation is formulated in terms of a family of approximate free energies, which includes the Bethe free energy and the naive mean-field free as special cases. Using the linear response correction of the clique marginals, the scale parameters can be tuned. Simulation results illustrate the potential merits of the approach.

A distance-based conditional model on the ranking poset is presented for use in classification and ranking. The model is an extension of the Mallows model, and generalizes the classifier combination methods used by several ensemble learning algorithms, including error correcting output codes, discrete AdaBoost, logistic regression and cranking. The algebraic structure of the ranking poset leads to a simple Bayesian interpretation of the conditional model and its special cases. In addition to a unifying view, the framework suggests a probabilistic interpretation for error correcting output codes and an extension beyond the binary coding scheme.