"AI systems–like people–must often act despite partial and uncertain information. First, the information received may be unreliable (e.g., a patient may mis-remember when a disease started, or may not have noticed a symptom that is important to a diagnosis). In addition, rules connecting real-world events can never include all the factors that might determine whether their conclusions really apply (e.g., the correctness of basing a diagnosis on a lab test depends whether there were conditions that might have caused a false positive, on the test being done correctly, on the results being associated with the right patient, etc.) Thus in order to draw useful conclusions, AI systems must be able to reason about the probability of events, given their current knowledge." – from David Leake, Reasoning Under Uncertainty
We present a novel model architecture which leverages deep learning tools to perform exact Bayesian inference on sets of high dimensional, complex observations.
We also provide a general convergence analysis to support our empirical findings. Although our analysis is similar to CPI's, it has a key difference: as long as MBOC succeeds, we can provide a larger policy improvement than CPI at each iteration.
We also provide an algorithm for sampling CPDAGs efficiently from their posterior given the learned tree. That is, not from the full posterior, but from a reduced space of CPDAGs encoded in the learned tree.