Principal components analysis (PCA) is one of the most widely used techniques in machine learning and data mining. Minor components analysis (MCA) is less well known, but can also play an important role in the presence of constraints on the data distribution. In this paper we present a probabilistic model for "extreme components analysis" (XCA) which at the maximum likelihood solution extracts an optimal combination of principal and minor components. For a given number of components, the log-likelihood of the XCA model is guaranteed to be larger or equal than that of the probabilistic models for PCA and MCA. We describe an efficient algorithm to solve for the globally optimal solution. For log-convex spectra we prove that the solution consists of principal components only, while for log-concave spectra the solution consists of minor components. In general, the solution admits a combination of both. In experiments we explore the properties of XCA on some synthetic and real-world datasets.

We propose a method for sequential Bayesian kernel regression. As is the case for the popular Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) [10, 11], the method automatically identifies the number and locations of the kernels. Our algorithm overcomes some of the computational difficulties related to batch methods for kernel regression. It is non-iterative, and requires only a single pass over the data. It is thus applicable to truly sequential data sets and batch data sets alike. The algorithm is based on a generalisation of Importance Sampling, which allows the design of intuitively simple and efficient proposal distributions for the model parameters. Comparative results on two standard data sets show our algorithm to compare favourably with existing batch estimation strategies.

We address the problem of learning topic hierarchies from data. The model selection problem in this domain is daunting--which of the large collection of possible trees to use? We take a Bayesian approach, generating an appropriate prior via a distribution on partitions that we refer to as the nested Chinese restaurant process. This nonparametric prior allows arbitrarily large branching factors and readily accommodates growing data collections. We build a hierarchical topic model by combining this prior with a likelihood that is based on a hierarchical variant of latent Dirichlet allocation. We illustrate our approach on simulated data and with an application to the modeling of NIPS abstracts.

The problem of approximating the product of several Gaussian mixture distributions arises in a number of contexts, including the nonparametric belief propagation (NBP) inference algorithm and the training of product of experts models. This paper develops two multiscale algorithms for sampling from a product of Gaussian mixtures, and compares their performance to existing methods. The first is a multiscale variant of previously proposed Monte Carlo techniques, with comparable theoretical guarantees but improved empirical convergence rates. The second makes use of approximate kernel density evaluation methods to construct a fast approximate sampler, which is guaranteed to sample points to within a tunable parameter ɛ of their true probability. We compare both multiscale samplers on a set of computational examples motivated by NBP, demonstrating significant improvements over existing methods.

Recent work has examined the estimation of models of stimulus-driven neural activity in which some linear filtering process is followed by a nonlinear, probabilistic spiking stage. We analyze the estimation of one such model for which this nonlinear step is implemented by a noisy, leaky, integrate-and-fire mechanism with a spike-dependent aftercurrent. Thismodel is a biophysically plausible alternative to models with Poisson (memory-less) spiking, and has been shown to effectively reproduce various spiking statistics of neurons in vivo. However, the problem of estimating the model from extracellular spike train data has not been examined in depth. We formulate the problem in terms of maximum likelihoodestimation, and show that the computational problem of maximizing the likelihood is tractable.

Consider a number of moving points, where each point is attached to a joint of the human body and projected onto an image plane. Johannson showed that humans can effortlessly detect and recognize thepresence of other humans from such displays. This is true even when some of the body points are missing (e.g. because of occlusion) and unrelated clutter points are added to the display. We are interested in replicating this ability in a machine. To this end, we present a labelling and detection scheme in a probabilistic framework. Our method is based on representing the joint probability densityof positions and velocities of body points with a graphical model, and using Loopy Belief Propagation to calculate a likely interpretation of the scene. Furthermore, we introduce a global variable representing the body's centroid. Experiments on one motion-captured sequence suggest that our scheme improves on the accuracy of a previous approach based on triangulated graphical models,especially when very few parts are visible. The improvement isdue both to the more general graph structure we use and, more significantly, to the introduction of the centroid variable.

Rao-Blackwellization is an approximation technique for probabilistic inference thatflexibly combines exact inference with sampling. It is useful in models where conditioning on some of the variables leaves a simpler inferenceproblem that can be solved tractably. This paper presents Sample Propagation, an efficient implementation of Rao-Blackwellized approximate inference for a large class of models. Sample Propagation tightly integrates sampling with message passing in a junction tree, and is named for its simple, appealing structure: it walks the clusters of a junction tree, sampling some of the current cluster's variables and then passing a message to one of its neighbors. We discuss the application of Sample Propagation to conditional Gaussian inference problems such as switching linear dynamical systems.

That is, each factor sends a "message" to all pairs of nodes

In pattern classification tasks, errors are introduced because of differences betweenthe true model and the one obtained via model estimation. Using likelihood-ratio based classification, it is possible to correct for this discrepancy by finding class-pair specific terms to adjust the likelihood ratio directly, and that can make class-pair preference relationships intransitive. Inthis work, we introduce new methodology that makes necessary corrections to the likelihood ratio, specifically those that are necessary toachieve perfect classification (but not perfect likelihood-ratio correction which can be overkill). The new corrections, while weaker than previously reported such adjustments, are analytically challenging since they involve discontinuous functions, therefore requiring several approximations. We test a number of these new schemes on an isolatedword speechrecognition task as well as on the UCI machine learning data sets. Results show that by using the bias terms calculated in this new way, classification accuracy can substantially improve over both the baseline and over our previous results.

We present a new method for calculating approximate marginals for probability distributions defined by graphs with cycles, based on a Gaussian entropybound combined with a semidefinite outer bound on the marginal polytope. This combination leads to a log-determinant maximization problemthat can be solved by efficient interior point methods [8]. As with the Bethe approximation and its generalizations [12], the optimizing arguments of this problem can be taken as approximations to the exact marginals. In contrast to Bethe/Kikuchi approaches, our variational problemis strictly convex and so has a unique global optimum. An additional desirable feature is that the value of the optimal solution is guaranteed to provide an upper bound on the log partition function. In experimental trials, the performance of the log-determinant relaxation is comparable to or better than the sum-product algorithm, and by a substantial marginfor certain problem classes. Finally, the zero-temperature limit of our log-determinant relaxation recovers a class of well-known semidefinite relaxations for integer programming [e.g., 3].