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 Uncertainty


Enrichment of Qualitative Beliefs for Reasoning under Uncertainty

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper deals with enriched qualitative belief functions for reasoning under uncertainty and for combining information expressed in natural language through linguistic labels. In this work, two possible enrichments (quantitative and/or qualitative) of linguistic labels are considered and operators (addition, multiplication, division, etc) for dealing with them are proposed and explained. We denote them $qe$-operators, $qe$ standing for "qualitative-enriched" operators. These operators can be seen as a direct extension of the classical qualitative operators ($q$-operators) proposed recently in the Dezert-Smarandache Theory of plausible and paradoxist reasoning (DSmT). $q$-operators are also justified in details in this paper. The quantitative enrichment of linguistic label is a numerical supporting degree in $[0,\infty)$, while the qualitative enrichment takes its values in a finite ordered set of linguistic values. Quantitative enrichment is less precise than qualitative enrichment, but it is expected more close with what human experts can easily provide when expressing linguistic labels with supporting degrees. Two simple examples are given to show how the fusion of qualitative-enriched belief assignments can be done.


On Universal Prediction and Bayesian Confirmation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Bayesian framework is a well-studied and successful framework for inductive reasoning, which includes hypothesis testing and confirmation, parameter estimation, sequence prediction, classification, and regression. But standard statistical guidelines for choosing the model class and prior are not always available or fail, in particular in complex situations. Solomonoff completed the Bayesian framework by providing a rigorous, unique, formal, and universal choice for the model class and the prior. We discuss in breadth how and in which sense universal (non-i.i.d.) sequence prediction solves various (philosophical) problems of traditional Bayesian sequence prediction. We show that Solomonoff's model possesses many desirable properties: Strong total and weak instantaneous bounds, and in contrast to most classical continuous prior densities has no zero p(oste)rior problem, i.e. can confirm universal hypotheses, is reparametrization and regrouping invariant, and avoids the old-evidence and updating problem. It even performs well (actually better) in non-computable environments.


Multi-Sensor Fusion Method using Dynamic Bayesian Network for Precise Vehicle Localization and Road Matching

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a multi-sensor fusion strategy for a novel road-matching method designed to support real-time navigational features within advanced driving-assistance systems. Managing multihypotheses is a useful strategy for the road-matching problem. The multi-sensor fusion and multi-modal estimation are realized using Dynamical Bayesian Network. Experimental results, using data from Antilock Braking System (ABS) sensors, a differential Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver and an accurate digital roadmap, illustrate the performances of this approach, especially in ambiguous situations.


Qualitative Belief Conditioning Rules (QBCR)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper we extend the new family of (quantitative) Belief Conditioning Rules (BCR) recently developed in the Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT) to their qualitative counterpart for belief revision. Since the revision of quantitative as well as qualitative belief assignment given the occurrence of a new event (the conditioning constraint) can be done in many possible ways, we present here only what we consider as the most appealing Qualitative Belief Conditioning Rules (QBCR) which allow to revise the belief directly with words and linguistic labels and thus avoids the introduction of ad-hoc translations of quantitative beliefs into quantitative ones for solving the problem.


Bayesian Approach to Neuro-Rough Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper proposes a neuro-rough model based on multi-layered perceptron and rough set. The neuro-rough model is then tested on modelling the risk of HIV from demographic data. The model is formulated using Bayesian framework and trained using Monte Carlo method and Metropolis criterion. When the model was tested to estimate the risk of HIV infection given the demographic data it was found to give the accuracy of 62%. The proposed model is able to combine the accuracy of the Bayesian MLP model and the transparency of Bayesian rough set model.


An Algebraic Graphical Model for Decision with Uncertainties, Feasibilities, and Utilities

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Numerous formalisms and dedicated algorithms have been designed in the last decades to model and solve decision making problems. Some formalisms, such as constraint networks, can express "simple" decision problems, while others are designed to take into account uncertainties, unfeasible decisions, and utilities. Even in a single formalism, several variants are often proposed to model different types of uncertainty (probability, possibility...) or utility (additive or not). In this article, we introduce an algebraic graphical model that encompasses a large number of such formalisms: (1) we first adapt previous structures from Friedman, Chu and Halpern for representing uncertainty, utility, and expected utility in order to deal with generic forms of sequential decision making; (2) on these structures, we then introduce composite graphical models that express information via variables linked by "local" functions, thanks to conditional independence; (3) on these graphical models, we finally define a simple class of queries which can represent various scenarios in terms of observabilities and controllabilities. A natural decision-tree semantics for such queries is completed by an equivalent operational semantics, which induces generic algorithms. The proposed framework, called the Plausibility-Feasibility-Utility (PFU) framework, not only provides a better understanding of the links between existing formalisms, but it also covers yet unpublished frameworks (such as possibilistic influence diagrams) and unifies formalisms such as quantified boolean formulas and influence diagrams. Our backtrack and variable elimination generic algorithms are a first step towards unified algorithms.


Learning Probabilistic Models of Word Sense Disambiguation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This dissertation presents several new methods of supervised and unsupervised learning of word sense disambiguation models. The supervised methods focus on performing model searches through a space of probabilistic models, and the unsupervised methods rely on the use of Gibbs Sampling and the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. In both the supervised and unsupervised case, the Naive Bayesian model is found to perform well. An explanation for this success is presented in terms of learning rates and bias-variance decompositions.


A Generalized Information Formula as the Bridge between Shannon and Popper

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A generalized information formula related to logical probability and fuzzy set is deduced from the classical information formula. The new information measure accords with to Popper's criterion for knowledge evolution very much. In comparison with square error criterion, the information criterion does not only reflect error of a proposition, but also reflects the particularity of the event described by the proposition. It gives a proposition with less logical probability higher evaluation. The paper introduces how to select a prediction or sentence from many for forecasts and language translations according to the generalized information criterion. It also introduces the rate fidelity theory, which comes from the improvement of the rate distortion theory in the classical information theory by replacing distortion (i.e. average error) criterion with the generalized mutual information criterion, for data compression and communication efficiency. Some interesting conclusions are obtained from the rate-fidelity function in relation to image communication. It also discusses how to improve Popper's theory.


Learning Symbolic Models of Stochastic Domains

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

In this article, we work towards the goal of developing agents that can learn to act in complex worlds. We develop a probabilistic, relational planning rule representation that compactly models noisy, nondeterministic action effects, and show how such rules can be effectively learned. Through experiments in simple planning domains and a 3D simulated blocks world with realistic physics, we demonstrate that this learning algorithm allows agents to effectively model world dynamics.


Neutrality and Many-Valued Logics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this book, we consider various many-valued logics: standard, linear, hyperbolic, parabolic, non-Archimedean, p-adic, interval, neutrosophic, etc. We survey also results which show the tree different proof-theoretic frameworks for many-valued logics, e.g. frameworks of the following deductive calculi: Hilbert's style, sequent, and hypersequent. We present a general way that allows to construct systematically analytic calculi for a large family of non-Archimedean many-valued logics: hyperrational-valued, hyperreal-valued, and p-adic valued logics characterized by a special format of semantics with an appropriate rejection of Archimedes' axiom. These logics are built as different extensions of standard many-valued logics (namely, Lukasiewicz's, Goedel's, Product, and Post's logics). The informal sense of Archimedes' axiom is that anything can be measured by a ruler. Also logical multiple-validity without Archimedes' axiom consists in that the set of truth values is infinite and it is not well-founded and well-ordered. On the base of non-Archimedean valued logics, we construct non-Archimedean valued interval neutrosophic logic INL by which we can describe neutrality phenomena.