We consider how an agent should update her uncertainty when it is represented by a set $\P$ of probability distributions and the agent observes that a random variable $X$ takes on value $x$, given that the agent makes decisions using the minimax criterion, perhaps the best-studied and most commonly-used criterion in the literature. We adopt a game-theoretic framework, where the agent plays against a bookie, who chooses some distribution from $\P$. We consider two reasonable games that differ in what the bookie knows when he makes his choice. Anomalies that have been observed before, like time inconsistency, can be understood as arising important because different games are being played, against bookies with different information. We characterize the important special cases in which the optimal decision rules according to the minimax criterion amount to either conditioning or simply ignoring the information. Finally, we consider the relationship between conditioning and calibration when uncertainty is described by sets of probabilities.

Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) have become a popular tool for computational analysis of biological data in a variety of domains. But, what exactly are they and how do they work? How can we use PGMs to discover patterns that are biologically relevant? And to what extent can PGMs help us formulate new hypotheses that are testable at the bench? This note sketches out some answers and illustrates the main ideas behind the statistical approach to biological pattern discovery.

This article proposes a novel density estimation based algorithm for carrying out supervised machine learning. The proposed algorithm features O(n) time complexity for generating a classifier, where n is the number of sampling instances in the training dataset. This feature is highly desirable in contemporary applications that involve large and still growing databases. In comparison with the kernel density estimation based approaches, the mathe-matical fundamental behind the proposed algorithm is not based on the assump-tion that the number of training instances approaches infinite. As a result, a classifier generated with the proposed algorithm may deliver higher prediction accuracy than the kernel density estimation based classifier in some cases.

Characterization of semiconductor devices is used to gather as much data about the device as possible to determine weaknesses in design or trends in the manufacturing process. In this paper, we propose a novel multiple trip point characterization concept to overcome the constraint of single trip point concept in device characterization phase. In addition, we use computational intelligence techniques (e.g. neural network, fuzzy and genetic algorithm) to further manipulate these sets of multiple trip point values and tests based on semiconductor test equipments, Our experimental results demonstrate an excellent design parameter variation analysis in device characterization phase, as well as detection of a set of worst case tests that can provoke the worst case variation, while traditional approach was not capable of detecting them.

It is widely recognized today that the management of imprecision and vagueness will yield more intelligent and realistic knowledge-based applications. Description Logics (DLs) are a family of knowledge representation languages that have gained considerable attention the last decade, mainly due to their decidability and the existence of empirically high performance of reasoning algorithms. In this paper, we extend the well known fuzzy ALC DL to the fuzzy SHIN DL, which extends the fuzzy ALC DL with transitive role axioms (S), inverse roles (I), role hierarchies (H) and number restrictions (N). We illustrate why transitive role axioms are difficult to handle in the presence of fuzzy interpretations and how to handle them properly. Then we extend these results by adding role hierarchies and finally number restrictions. The main contributions of the paper are the decidability proof of the fuzzy DL languages fuzzy-SI and fuzzy-SHIN, as well as decision procedures for the knowledge base satisfiability problem of the fuzzy-SI and fuzzy-SHIN.

The adoption of probabilistic models for the best individuals found so far is a powerful approach for evolutionary computation. Increasingly more complex models have been used by estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs), which often result better effectiveness on finding the global optima for hard optimization problems. Supervised and unsupervised learning of Bayesian networks are very effective options, since those models are able to capture interactions of high order among the variables of a problem. Diversity preservation, through niching techniques, has also shown to be very important to allow the identification of the problem structure as much as for keeping several global optima. Recently, clustering was evaluated as an effective niching technique for EDAs, but the performance of simpler low-order EDAs was not shown to be much improved by clustering, except for some simple multimodal problems. This work proposes and evaluates a combination operator guided by a measure from information theory which allows a clustered low-order EDA to effectively solve a comprehensive range of benchmark optimization problems.

Previous work in social network analysis (SNA) has modeled the existence of links from one entity to another, but not the attributes such as language content or topics on those links. We present the Author-Recipient-Topic (ART) model for social network analysis, which learns topic distributions based on the direction-sensitive messages sent between entities. The model builds on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and the Author-Topic (AT) model, adding the key attribute that distribution over topics is conditioned distinctly on both the sender and recipient---steering the discovery of topics according to the relationships between people. We give results on both the Enron email corpus and a researcher's email archive, providing evidence not only that clearly relevant topics are discovered, but that the ART model better predicts people's roles and gives lower perplexity on previously unseen messages. We also present the Role-Author-Recipient-Topic (RART) model, an extension to ART that explicitly represents people's roles.

Techniques for data-mining, latent semantic analysis, contextual search of databases, etc. have long ago been developed by computer scientists working on information retrieval (IR). Experimental scientists, from all disciplines, having to analyse large collections of raw experimental data (astronomical, physical, biological, etc.) have developed powerful methods for their statistical analysis and for clustering, categorising, and classifying objects. Finally, physicists have developed a theory of quantum measurement, unifying the logical, algebraic, and probabilistic aspects of queries into a single formalism. The purpose of this paper is twofold: first to show that when formulated at an abstract level, problems from IR, from statistical data analysis, and from physical measurement theories are very similar and hence can profitably be cross-fertilised, and, secondly, to propose a novel method of fuzzy hierarchical clustering, termed \textit{semantic distillation} -- strongly inspired from the theory of quantum measurement --, we developed to analyse raw data coming from various types of experiments on DNA arrays. We illustrate the method by analysing DNA arrays experiments and clustering the genes of the array according to their specificity.

We present a new local approximation algorithm for computing Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) and log-partition function for arbitrary exponential family distribution represented by a finite-valued pair-wise Markov random field (MRF), say $G$. Our algorithm is based on decomposition of $G$ into {\em appropriately} chosen small components; then computing estimates locally in each of these components and then producing a {\em good} global solution. We show that if the underlying graph $G$ either excludes some finite-sized graph as its minor (e.g. Planar graph) or has low doubling dimension (e.g. any graph with {\em geometry}), then our algorithm will produce solution for both questions within {\em arbitrary accuracy}. We present a message-passing implementation of our algorithm for MAP computation using self-avoiding walk of graph. In order to evaluate the computational cost of this implementation, we derive novel tight bounds on the size of self-avoiding walk tree for arbitrary graph. As a consequence of our algorithmic result, we show that the normalized log-partition function (also known as free-energy) for a class of {\em regular} MRFs will converge to a limit, that is computable to an arbitrary accuracy.

We show that the class of conditional distributions satisfying the coarsening at Random (CAR) property for discrete data has a simple and robust algorithmic description based on randomized uniform multicovers: combinatorial objects generalizing the notion of partition of a set. However, the complexity of a given CAR mechanism can be large: the maximal "height" of the needed multicovers can be exponential in the number of points in the sample space. The results stem from a geometric interpretation of the set of CAR distributions as a convex polytope and a characterization of its extreme points. The hierarchy of CAR models defined in this way could be useful in parsimonious statistical modelling of CAR mechanisms, though the results also raise doubts in applied work as to the meaningfulness of the CAR assumption in its full generality.