Uncertainty
Conditional Models of Identity Uncertainty with Application to Noun Coreference
McCallum, Andrew, Wellner, Ben
Coreference analysis, also known as record linkage or identity uncertainty, is a difficult and important problem in natural language processing, databases, citation matching and many other tasks. This paper introduces several discriminative, conditional-probability models for coreference analysis, all examples of undirected graphical models. Unlike many historical approaches to coreference, the models presented here are relational--they do not assume that pairwise coreference decisions should be made independently from each other. Unlike other relational models of coreference that are generative, the conditional model here can incorporate a great variety of features of the input without having to be concerned about their dependencies--paralleling the advantages of conditional random fields over hidden Markov models.
Joint Tracking of Pose, Expression, and Texture using Conditionally Gaussian Filters
Marks, Tim K., Roddey, J. C., Movellan, Javier R., Hershey, John R.
We present a generative model and stochastic filtering algorithm for simultaneous tracking of 3D position and orientation, nonrigid motion, object texture, and background texture using a single camera. We show that the solution to this problem is formally equivalent to stochastic filtering of conditionally Gaussian processes, a problem for which well known approaches exist [3, 8]. We propose an approach based on Monte Carlo sampling of the nonlinear component of the process (object motion) and exact filtering of the object and background textures given the sampled motion. The smoothness of image sequences in time and space is exploited by using Laplace's method to generate proposal distributions for importance sampling [7]. The resulting inference algorithm encompasses both optic flow and template-based tracking as special cases, and elucidates the conditions under which these methods are optimal. We demonstrate an application of the system to 3D nonrigid face tracking.
PAC-Bayes Learning of Conjunctions and Classification of Gene-Expression Data
We propose a "soft greedy" learning algorithm for building small conjunctions of simple threshold functions, called rays, defined on single real-valued attributes. We also propose a PAC-Bayes risk bound which is minimized for classifiers achieving a nontrivial tradeoff between sparsity (the number of rays used) and the magnitude of the separating margin of each ray. Finally, we test the soft greedy algorithm on four DNA micro-array data sets.
Semi-supervised Learning with Penalized Probabilistic Clustering
While clustering is usually an unsupervised operation, there are circumstances in which we believe (with varying degrees of certainty) that items A and B should be assigned to the same cluster, while items A and C should not. We would like such pairwise relations to influence cluster assignments of out-of-sample data in a manner consistent with the prior knowledge expressed in the training set. Our starting point is probabilistic clustering based on Gaussian mixture models (GMM) of the data distribution. We express clustering preferences in the prior distribution over assignments of data points to clusters. This prior penalizes cluster assignments according to the degree with which they violate the preferences. We fit the model parameters with EM. Experiments on a variety of data sets show that PPC can consistently improve clustering results.
Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Intrinsic Dimension
Levina, Elizaveta, Bickel, Peter J.
We propose a new method for estimating intrinsic dimension of a dataset derived by applying the principle of maximum likelihood to the distances between close neighbors. We derive the estimator by a Poisson process approximation, assess its bias and variance theoretically and by simulations, and apply it to a number of simulated and real datasets. We also show it has the best overall performance compared with two other intrinsic dimension estimators.
Rate- and Phase-coded Autoassociative Memory
Areas of the brain involved in various forms of memory exhibit patterns of neural activity quite unlike those in canonical computational models. We show how to use well-founded Bayesian probabilistic autoassociative recall to derive biologically reasonable neuronal dynamics in recurrently coupled models, together with appropriate values for parameters such as the membrane time constant and inhibition. We explicitly treat two cases. One arises from a standard Hebbian learning rule, and involves activity patterns that are coded by graded firing rates. The other arises from a spike timing dependent learning rule, and involves patterns coded by the phase of spike times relative to a coherent local field potential oscillation. Our model offers a new and more complete understanding of how neural dynamics may support autoassociation.
Joint MRI Bias Removal Using Entropy Minimization Across Images
Learned-miller, Erik G., Ahammad, Parvez
The correction of bias in magnetic resonance images is an important problem in medical image processing. Most previous approaches have used a maximum likelihood method to increase the likelihood of the pixels in a single image by adaptively estimating a correction to the unknown image bias field. The pixel likelihoods are defined either in terms of a preexisting tissue model, or non-parametrically in terms of the image's own pixel values. In both cases, the specific location of a pixel in the image is not used to calculate the likelihoods. We suggest a new approach in which we simultaneously eliminate the bias from a set of images of the same anatomy, but from different patients. We use the statistics from the same location across different images, rather than within an image, to eliminate bias fields from all of the images simultaneously. The method builds a "multi-resolution" nonparametric tissue model conditioned on image location while eliminating the bias fields associated with the original image set.
Online Bounds for Bayesian Algorithms
Kakade, Sham M., Ng, Andrew Y.
We present a competitive analysis of Bayesian learning algorithms in the online learning setting and show that many simple Bayesian algorithms (such as Gaussian linear regression and Bayesian logistic regression) perform favorably when compared, in retrospect, to the single best model in the model class. The analysis does not assume that the Bayesian algorithms' modeling assumptions are "correct," and our bounds hold even if the data is adversarially chosen. For Gaussian linear regression (using logloss), our error bounds are comparable to the best bounds in the online learning literature, and we also provide a lower bound showing that Gaussian linear regression is optimal in a certain worst case sense. We also give bounds for some widely used maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation algorithms, including regularized logistic regression.
Integrating Topics and Syntax
Griffiths, Thomas L., Steyvers, Mark, Blei, David M., Tenenbaum, Joshua B.
Statistical approaches to language learning typically focus on either short-range syntactic dependencies or long-range semantic dependencies between words. We present a generative model that uses both kinds of dependencies, and can be used to simultaneously find syntactic classes and semantic topics despite having no representation of syntax or semantics beyond statistical dependency. This model is competitive on tasks like part-of-speech tagging and document classification with models that exclusively use short-and long-range dependencies respectively.