We present a probabilistic model applied to the fMRI video rating prediction task of the Pittsburgh Brain Activity Interpretation Competition (PBAIC) [2]. Our goal is to predict a time series of subjective, semantic ratings of a movie given functional MRI data acquired during viewing by three subjects. Our method uses conditionally trained Gaussian Markov random fields, which model both the relationships between the subjects' fMRI voxel measurements and the ratings, as well as the dependencies of the ratings across time steps and between subjects. We also employed nontraditional methods for feature selection and regularization that exploit the spatial structure of voxel activity in the brain. The model displayed good performance in predicting the scored ratings for the three subjects in test data sets, and a variant of this model was the third place entrant to the 2006 PBAIC.

We study a setting that is motivated by the problem of filtering spam messages for many users. Each user receives messages according to an individual, unknown distribution, reflected only in the unlabeled inbox. The spam filter for a user is required to perform well with respect to this distribution. Labeled messages from publicly available sources can be utilized, but they are governed by a distinct distribution, not adequately representing most inboxes. We devise a method that minimizes a loss function with respect to a user's personal distribution based on the available biased sample. A nonparametric hierarchical Bayesian model furthermore generalizes across users by learning a common prior which is imposed on new email accounts. Empirically, we observe that bias-corrected learning outperforms naive reliance on the assumption of independent and identically distributed data; Dirichlet-enhanced generalization across users outperforms a single ("one size fits all") filter as well as independent filters for all users.

We present a hierarchical Bayesian model for sets of related, but different, classes of time series data. Our model performs alignment simultaneously across all classes, while detecting and characterizing class-specific differences. During inference the model produces, for each class, a distribution over a canonical representation of the class. These class-specific canonical representations are automatically aligned to one another -- preserving common substructures, and highlighting differences.

Policy gradient methods are reinforcement learning algorithms that adapt a parameterized policy by following a performance gradient estimate. Conventional policy gradient methods use Monte-Carlo techniques to estimate this gradient. Since Monte Carlo methods tend to have high variance, a large number of samples is required, resulting in slow convergence. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework that models the policy gradient as a Gaussian process. This reduces the number of samples needed to obtain accurate gradient estimates. Moreover, estimates of the natural gradient as well as a measure of the uncertainty in the gradient estimates are provided at little extra cost.

Linear Gaussian State-Space Models are widely used and a Bayesian treatment of parameters is therefore of considerable interest. The approximate Variational Bayesian method applied to these models is an attractive approach, used successfully in applications ranging from acoustics to bioinformatics. The most challenging aspect of implementing the method is in performing inference on the hidden state sequence of the model. We show how to convert the inference problem so that standard Kalman Filtering/Smoothing recursions from the literature may be applied. This is in contrast to previously published approaches based on Belief Propagation. Our framework both simplifies and unifies the inference problem, so that future applications may be more easily developed. We demonstrate the elegance of the approach on Bayesian temporal ICA, with an application to finding independent dynamical processes underlying noisy EEG signals.

Human listeners have the extraordinary ability to hear and recognize speech even when more than one person is talking. Their machine counterparts have historically been unable to compete with this ability, until now. We present a modelbased system that performs on par with humans in the task of separating speech of two talkers from a single-channel recording.

A number of exact and approximate methods are available for inference calculations in graphical models. Many recent approximate methods for graphs with cycles are based on tractable algorithms for tree structured graphs. Here we base the approximation on a different tractable model, planar graphs with binary variables and pure interaction potentials (no external field). The partition function for such models can be calculated exactly using an algorithm introduced by Fisher and Kasteleyn in the 1960s. We show how such tractable planar models can be used in a decomposition to derive upper bounds on the partition function of non-planar models. The resulting algorithm also allows for the estimation of marginals. We compare our planar decomposition to the tree decomposition method of Wainwright et.

Despite all the attention paid to variational methods based on sum-product message passing (loopy belief propagation, tree-reweighted sum-product), these methods are still bound to inference on a small set of probabilistic models. Mean field approximations have been applied to a broader set of problems, but the solutions are often poor. We propose a new class of conditionally-specified variational approximations based on mean field theory. While not usable on their own, combined with sequential Monte Carlo they produce guaranteed improvements over conventional mean field. Moreover, experiments on a well-studied problem-- inferring the stable configurations of the Ising spin glass--show that the solutions can be significantly better than those obtained using sum-product-based methods.

In general, the problem of computing a maximum a posteriori (MAP) assignment in a Markov random field (MRF) is computationally intractable. However, in certain subclasses of MRF, an optimal or close-to-optimal assignment can be found very efficiently using combinatorial optimization algorithms: certain MRFs with mutual exclusion constraints can be solved using bipartite matching, and MRFs with regular potentials can be solved using minimum cut methods. However, these solutions do not apply to the many MRFs that contain such tractable components as sub-networks, but also other non-complying potentials.

Everyday inductive reasoning draws on many kinds of knowledge, including knowledge about relationships between properties and knowledge about relationships between objects. Previous accounts of inductive reasoning generally focus on just one kind of knowledge: models of causal reasoning often focus on relationships between properties, and models of similarity-based reasoning often focus on similarity relationships between objects. We present a Bayesian model of inductive reasoning that incorporates both kinds of knowledge, and show that it accounts well for human inferences about the properties of biological species.