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 Uncertainty


Log-concavity Results on Gaussian Process Methods for Supervised and Unsupervised Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Log-concavity is an important property in the context of optimization, Laplace approximation, and sampling; Bayesian methods based on Gaussian process priors have become quite popular recently for classification, regression, density estimation, and point process intensity estimation. Here we prove that the predictive densities corresponding to each of these applications are log-concave, given any observed data. We also prove that the likelihood is log-concave in the hyperparameters controlling the mean function of the Gaussian prior in the density and point process intensity estimation cases, and the mean, covariance, and observation noise parameters in the classification and regression cases; this result leads to a useful parameterization of these hyperparameters, indicating a suitably large class of priors for which the corresponding maximum a posteriori problem is log-concave. Introduction Bayesian methods based on Gaussian process priors have recently become quite popular for machine learning tasks (1). These techniques have enjoyed a good deal of theoretical examination, documenting their learning-theoretic (generalization) properties (2), and developing a variety of efficient computational schemes (e.g., (3-5), and references therein).


A Harmonic Excitation State-Space Approach to Blind Separation of Speech

Neural Information Processing Systems

We discuss an identification framework for noisy speech mixtures. A block-based generative model is formulated that explicitly incorporates the time-varying harmonic plus noise (H N) model for a number of latent sources observed through noisy convolutive mixtures. All parameters including the pitches of the source signals, the amplitudes and phases of the sources, the mixing filters and the noise statistics are estimated by maximum likelihood, using an EMalgorithm. Exact averaging over the hidden sources is obtained using the Kalman smoother. We show that pitch estimation and source separation can be performed simultaneously. The pitch estimates are compared to laryngograph (EGG) measurements. Artificial and real room mixtures are used to demonstrate the viability of the approach. Intelligible speech signals are re-synthesized from the estimated H N models.


Common-Frame Model for Object Recognition

Neural Information Processing Systems

A generative probabilistic model for objects in images is presented. An object consists of a constellation of features. Feature appearance and pose are modeled probabilistically. Scene images are generated by drawing a set of objects from a given database, with random clutter sprinkled on the remaining image surface.


Conditional Models of Identity Uncertainty with Application to Noun Coreference

Neural Information Processing Systems

Coreference analysis, also known as record linkage or identity uncertainty, is a difficult and important problem in natural language processing, databases, citation matching and many other tasks. This paper introduces several discriminative, conditional-probability models for coreference analysis, all examples of undirected graphical models. Unlike many historical approaches to coreference, the models presented here are relational--they do not assume that pairwise coreference decisions should be made independently from each other. Unlike other relational models of coreference that are generative, the conditional model here can incorporate a great variety of features of the input without having to be concerned about their dependencies--paralleling the advantages of conditional random fields over hidden Markov models.


Joint Tracking of Pose, Expression, and Texture using Conditionally Gaussian Filters

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a generative model and stochastic filtering algorithm for simultaneous tracking of 3D position and orientation, nonrigid motion, object texture, and background texture using a single camera. We show that the solution to this problem is formally equivalent to stochastic filtering of conditionally Gaussian processes, a problem for which well known approaches exist [3, 8]. We propose an approach based on Monte Carlo sampling of the nonlinear component of the process (object motion) and exact filtering of the object and background textures given the sampled motion. The smoothness of image sequences in time and space is exploited by using Laplace's method to generate proposal distributions for importance sampling [7]. The resulting inference algorithm encompasses both optic flow and template-based tracking as special cases, and elucidates the conditions under which these methods are optimal. We demonstrate an application of the system to 3D nonrigid face tracking.


PAC-Bayes Learning of Conjunctions and Classification of Gene-Expression Data

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a "soft greedy" learning algorithm for building small conjunctions of simple threshold functions, called rays, defined on single real-valued attributes. We also propose a PAC-Bayes risk bound which is minimized for classifiers achieving a nontrivial tradeoff between sparsity (the number of rays used) and the magnitude of the separating margin of each ray. Finally, we test the soft greedy algorithm on four DNA micro-array data sets.


Semi-supervised Learning with Penalized Probabilistic Clustering

Neural Information Processing Systems

While clustering is usually an unsupervised operation, there are circumstances in which we believe (with varying degrees of certainty) that items A and B should be assigned to the same cluster, while items A and C should not. We would like such pairwise relations to influence cluster assignments of out-of-sample data in a manner consistent with the prior knowledge expressed in the training set. Our starting point is probabilistic clustering based on Gaussian mixture models (GMM) of the data distribution. We express clustering preferences in the prior distribution over assignments of data points to clusters. This prior penalizes cluster assignments according to the degree with which they violate the preferences. We fit the model parameters with EM. Experiments on a variety of data sets show that PPC can consistently improve clustering results.


Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Intrinsic Dimension

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a new method for estimating intrinsic dimension of a dataset derived by applying the principle of maximum likelihood to the distances between close neighbors. We derive the estimator by a Poisson process approximation, assess its bias and variance theoretically and by simulations, and apply it to a number of simulated and real datasets. We also show it has the best overall performance compared with two other intrinsic dimension estimators.


Rate- and Phase-coded Autoassociative Memory

Neural Information Processing Systems

Areas of the brain involved in various forms of memory exhibit patterns of neural activity quite unlike those in canonical computational models. We show how to use well-founded Bayesian probabilistic autoassociative recall to derive biologically reasonable neuronal dynamics in recurrently coupled models, together with appropriate values for parameters such as the membrane time constant and inhibition. We explicitly treat two cases. One arises from a standard Hebbian learning rule, and involves activity patterns that are coded by graded firing rates. The other arises from a spike timing dependent learning rule, and involves patterns coded by the phase of spike times relative to a coherent local field potential oscillation. Our model offers a new and more complete understanding of how neural dynamics may support autoassociation.


Joint MRI Bias Removal Using Entropy Minimization Across Images

Neural Information Processing Systems

The correction of bias in magnetic resonance images is an important problem in medical image processing. Most previous approaches have used a maximum likelihood method to increase the likelihood of the pixels in a single image by adaptively estimating a correction to the unknown image bias field. The pixel likelihoods are defined either in terms of a preexisting tissue model, or non-parametrically in terms of the image's own pixel values. In both cases, the specific location of a pixel in the image is not used to calculate the likelihoods. We suggest a new approach in which we simultaneously eliminate the bias from a set of images of the same anatomy, but from different patients. We use the statistics from the same location across different images, rather than within an image, to eliminate bias fields from all of the images simultaneously. The method builds a "multi-resolution" nonparametric tissue model conditioned on image location while eliminating the bias fields associated with the original image set.