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 Uncertainty


Feature Selection for Bayesian Evaluation of Trauma Death Risk

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the last year more than 70,000 people have been brought to the UK hospitals with serious injuries. Each time a clinician has to urgently take a patient through a screening procedure to make a reliable decision on the trauma treatment. Typically, such procedure comprises around 20 tests; however the condition of a trauma patient remains very difficult to be tested properly. What happens if these tests are ambiguously interpreted, and information about the severity of the injury will come misleading? The mistake in a decision can be fatal: using a mild treatment can put a patient at risk of dying from posttraumatic shock, while using an overtreatment can also cause death. How can we reduce the risk of the death caused by unreliable decisions? It has been shown that probabilistic reasoning, based on the Bayesian methodology of averaging over decision models, allows clinicians to evaluate the uncertainty in decision making. Based on this methodology, in this paper we aim at selecting the most important screening tests, keeping a high performance. We assume that the probabilistic reasoning within the Bayesian methodology allows us to discover new relationships between the screening tests and uncertainty in decisions. In practice, selection of the most informative tests can also reduce the cost of a screening procedure in trauma care centers. In our experiments we use the UK Trauma data to compare the efficiency of the proposed technique in terms of the performance. We also compare the uncertainty in decisions in terms of entropy.


Analysis of hydrocyclone performance based on information granulation theory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper describes application of information granulation theory, on the analysis of hydrocyclone perforamance. In this manner, using a combining of Self Organizing Map (SOM) and Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (NFIS), crisp and fuzzy granules are obtained(briefly called SONFIS). Balancing of crisp granules and sub fuzzy granules, within non fuzzy information (initial granulation), is rendered in an open-close iteration. Using two criteria, "simplicity of rules "and "adaptive threoshold error level", stability of algorithm is guaranteed. Validation of the proposed method, on the data set of the hydrocyclone is rendered.


Toward Fuzzy block theory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study, fundamentals of fuzzy block theory, and its application in assessment of stability in underground openings, has surveyed. Using fuzzy topics and inserting them in to key block theory, in two ways, fundamentals of fuzzy block theory has been presented. In indirect combining, by coupling of adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (NFIS) and classic block theory, we could extract possible damage parts around a tunnel. In direct solution, some principles of block theory, by means of different fuzzy facets theory, were rewritten.


Contact state analysis using NFIS and SOM

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper reports application of neuro- fuzzy inference system (NFIS) and self organizing feature map neural networks (SOM) on detection of contact state in a block system. In this manner, on a simple system, the evolution of contact states, by parallelization of DDA, has been investigated. So, a comparison between NFIS and SOM results has been presented. The results show applicability of the proposed methods, by different accuracy, on detection of contact's distribution.


Order to Disorder Transitions in Hybrid Intelligent Systems: a Hatch to the Interactions of Nations -Governments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this study, under general frame of MAny Connected Intelligent Particles Systems (MACIPS), we reproduce two new simple subsets of such intelligent complex network, namely hybrid intelligent systems, involved a few prominent intelligent computing and approximate reasoning methods: self organizing feature map (SOM), Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and Rough Set Theory (RST). Over this, we show how our algorithms can be construed as a linkage of government-society interaction, where government catches various fashions of behavior: solid (absolute) or flexible. So, transition of such society, by changing of connectivity parameters (noise) from order to disorder is inferred. Add to this, one may find an indirect mapping among financial systems and eventual market fluctuations with MACIPS.


Phase transition in SONFIS&SORST

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this study, we introduce general frame of MAny Connected Intelligent Particles Systems (MACIPS). Connections and interconnections between particles get a complex behavior of such merely simple system (system in system).Contribution of natural computing, under information granulation theory, are the main topics of this spacious skeleton. Upon this clue, we organize two algorithms involved a few prominent intelligent computing and approximate reasoning methods: self organizing feature map (SOM), Neuro- Fuzzy Inference System and Rough Set Theory (RST). Over this, we show how our algorithms can be taken as a linkage of government-society interaction, where government catches various fashions of behavior: solid (absolute) or flexible. So, transition of such society, by changing of connectivity parameters (noise) from order to disorder is inferred. Add to this, one may find an indirect mapping among financial systems and eventual market fluctuations with MACIPS. Keywords: phase transition, SONFIS, SORST, many connected intelligent particles system, society-government interaction


Causal models have no complete axiomatic characterization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Markov networks and Bayesian networks are effective graphic representations of the dependencies embedded in probabilistic models. It is well known that independencies captured by Markov networks (called graph-isomorphs) have a finite axiomatic characterization. This paper, however, shows that independencies captured by Bayesian networks (called causal models) have no axiomatization by using even countably many Horn or disjunctive clauses. This is because a sub-independency model of a causal model may be not causal, while graph-isomorphs are closed under sub-models.


Belief Propagation and Loop Series on Planar Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We discuss a generic model of Bayesian inference with binary variables defined on edges of a planar graph. The Loop Calculus approach of [1, 2] is used to evaluate the resulting series expansion for the partition function. We show that, for planar graphs, truncating the series at single-connected loops reduces, via a map reminiscent of the Fisher transformation [3], to evaluating the partition function of the dimer matching model on an auxiliary planar graph. Thus, the truncated series can be easily re-summed, using the Pfaffian formula of Kasteleyn [4]. This allows to identify a big class of computationally tractable planar models reducible to a dimer model via the Belief Propagation (gauge) transformation. The Pfaffian representation can also be extended to the full Loop Series, in which case the expansion becomes a sum of Pfaffian contributions, each associated with dimer matchings on an extension to a subgraph of the original graph. Algorithmic consequences of the Pfaffian representation, as well as relations to quantum and non-planar models, are discussed.


Application of Rough Set Theory to Analysis of Hydrocyclone Operation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper describes application of rough set theory, on the analysis of hydrocyclone operation. In this manner, using Self Organizing Map (SOM) as preprocessing step, best crisp granules of data are obtained. Then, using a combining of SOM and rough set theory (RST)-called SORST-, the dominant rules on the information table, obtained from laboratory tests, are extracted. Based on these rules, an approximate estimation on decision attribute is fulfilled. Finally, a brief comparison of this method with the SOM-NFIS system (briefly SONFIS) is highlighted.


Graphical Estimation of Permeability Using RST&NFIS

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper pursues some applications of Rough Set Theory (RST) and neural-fuzzy model to analysis of "lugeon data". In the manner, using Self Organizing Map (SOM) as a pre-processing the data are scaled and then the dominant rules by RST, are elicited. Based on these rules variations of permeability in the different levels of Shivashan dam, Iran has been highlighted. Then, via using a combining of SOM and an adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (NFIS) another analysis on the data was carried out. Finally, a brief comparison between the obtained results of RST and SOM-NFIS (briefly SONFIS) has been rendered.