We extend a previously developed Bayesian framework for perception to account for sensory adaptation. We first note that the perceptual effects ofadaptation seems inconsistent with an adjustment of the internally represented prior distribution. Instead, we postulate that adaptation increases the signal-to-noise ratio of the measurements by adapting the operational range of the measurement stage to the input range. We show that this changes the likelihood function in such a way that the Bayesian estimator model can account for reported perceptual behavior. In particular, wecompare the model's predictions to human motion discrimination data and demonstrate that the model accounts for the commonly observed perceptual adaptation effects of repulsion and enhanced discriminability.

We measure the ability of human observers to predict the next datum in a sequence that is generated by a simple statistical process undergoing change at random points in time. Accurate performance in this task requires the identification of changepoints. We assess individual differences between observers both empirically, and using two kinds of models: a Bayesian approach for change detection and a family of cognitively plausible fast and frugal models. Some individuals detect too many changes and hence perform sub-optimally due to excess variability. Other individuals do not detect enough changes, and perform sub-optimally because they fail to notice short-term temporal trends.

The misjudgement of tilt in images lies at the heart of entertaining visual illusionsand rigorous perceptual psychophysics. A wealth of findings has attracted many mechanistic models, but few clear computational principles. We adopt a Bayesian approach to perceptual tilt estimation, showing how a smoothness prior offers a powerful way of addressing much confusing data. In particular, we faithfully model recent results showing that confidence in estimation can be systematically affected by the same aspects of images that affect bias. Confidence is central to Bayesian modeling approaches, and is applicable in many other perceptual domains. Perceptual anomalies and illusions, such as the misjudgements of motion and tilt evident in so many psychophysical experiments, have intrigued researchers for decades.

This paper presents a new filter for online data association problems in high-dimensional spaces. The key innovation is a representation of the data association posterior in information form, in which the "proximity" ofobjects and tracks are expressed by numerical links. Updating these links requires linear time, compared to exponential time required for computing the exact posterior probabilities. The paper derives the algorithm formally and provides comparative results using data obtained by a real-world camera array and by a large-scale sensor network simulation.

We present a family of approximation techniques for probabilistic graphical models,based on the use of graphical preconditioners developed in the scientific computing literature. Our framework yields rigorous upper and lower bounds on event probabilities and the log partition function of undirected graphical models, using non-iterative procedures that have low time complexity. As in mean field approaches, the approximations are built upon tractable subgraphs; however, we recast the problem of optimizing thetractable distribution parameters and approximate inference in terms of the well-studied linear systems problem of obtaining a good matrix preconditioner. Experiments are presented that compare the new approximation schemes to variational methods.

We discuss a method for obtaining a subject's a priori beliefs from his/her behavior in a psychophysics context, under the assumption that the behavior is (nearly) optimal from a Bayesian perspective. The method is nonparametric in the sense that we do not assume that the prior belongs to any fixed class of distributions (e.g., Gaussian). Despite this increased generality, the method is relatively simple to implement, being based in the simplest case on a linear programming algorithm, and more generally on a straightforward maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori formulation, which turns out to be a convex optimization problem (with no non-global local maxima) in many important cases. In addition, we develop methods for analyzing the uncertainty of these estimates. Wedemonstrate the accuracy of the method in a simple simulated coin-flipping setting; in particular, the method is able to precisely track the evolution of the subject's posterior distribution as more and more data are observed. We close by briefly discussing an interesting connection to recent models of neural population coding.

We consider criteria for variational representations of non-Gaussian latent variables,and derive variational EM algorithms in general form. We establish a general equivalence among convex bounding methods, evidence basedmethods, and ensemble learning/Variational Bayes methods, which has previously been demonstrated only for particular cases.

There is a growing number of studies supporting the Classical View of perception as probabilistic inference [1, 2].

The problem of computing a resample estimate for the reconstruction error in PCA is reformulated as an inference problem with the help of the replica method. Using the expectation consistent (EC) approximation, theintractable inference problem can be solved efficiently using only two variational parameters. A perturbative correction to the result is computed and an alternative simplified derivation is also presented.

We propose a new Bayesian method for spatial cluster detection, the "Bayesian spatial scan statistic," and compare this method to the standard (frequentist) scan statistic approach. We demonstrate that the Bayesian statistic has several advantages over the frequentist approach, including increased power to detect clusters and (since randomization testing is unnecessary) much faster runtime. We evaluate the Bayesian and frequentist methodson the task of prospective disease surveillance: detecting spatial clusters of disease cases resulting from emerging disease outbreaks. Wedemonstrate that our Bayesian methods are successful in rapidly detecting outbreaks while keeping number of false positives low.