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 Uncertainty


Learning to Control an Octopus Arm with Gaussian Process Temporal Difference Methods

Neural Information Processing Systems

The Octopus arm is a highly versatile and complex limb. How the Octopus controls such a hyper-redundant arm (not to mention eight of them!) is as yet unknown. Robotic arms based on the same mechanical principles may render present day robotic arms obsolete. In this paper, we tackle this control problem using an online reinforcement learning algorithm, based on a Bayesian approach to policy evaluation known as Gaussian process temporal difference (GPTD) learning. Our substitute for the real arm is a computer simulation of a 2-dimensional model of an Octopus arm. Even with the simplifications inherent to this model, the state space we face is a high-dimensional one. We apply a GPTDbased algorithm to this domain, and demonstrate its operation on several learning tasks of varying degrees of difficulty.


Correcting sample selection bias in maximum entropy density estimation

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study the problem of maximum entropy density estimation in the presence of known sample selection bias. We propose three bias correction approaches. The first one takes advantage of unbiased sufficient statistics which can be obtained from biased samples. The second one estimates the biased distribution and then factors the bias out. The third one approximates the second by only using samples from the sampling distribution. We provide guarantees for the first two approaches and evaluate the performance of all three approaches in synthetic experiments and on real data from species habitat modeling, where maxent has been successfully applied and where sample selection bias is a significant problem.


Bayesian models of human action understanding

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a Bayesian framework for explaining how people reason about and predict the actions of an intentional agent, based on observing its behavior. Action-understanding is cast as a problem of inverting a probabilistic generative model, which assumes that agents tend to act rationally in order to achieve their goals given the constraints of their environment. Working in a simple sprite-world domain, we show how this model can be used to infer the goal of an agent and predict how the agent will act in novel situations or when environmental constraints change. The model provides a qualitative account of several kinds of inferences that preverbal infants have been shown to perform, and also fits quantitative predictions that adult observers make in a new experiment.



Learning to Control an Octopus Arm with Gaussian Process Temporal Difference Methods

Neural Information Processing Systems

The Octopus arm is a highly versatile and complex limb. How the Octopus controlssuch a hyper-redundant arm (not to mention eight of them!) is as yet unknown. Robotic arms based on the same mechanical principles mayrender present day robotic arms obsolete. In this paper, we tackle this control problem using an online reinforcement learning algorithm, basedon a Bayesian approach to policy evaluation known as Gaussian process temporal difference (GPTD) learning. Our substitute for the real arm is a computer simulation of a 2-dimensional model of an Octopus arm. Even with the simplifications inherent to this model, the state space we face is a high-dimensional one. We apply a GPTDbased algorithmto this domain, and demonstrate its operation on several learning tasks of varying degrees of difficulty.




Correcting sample selection bias in maximum entropy density estimation

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study the problem of maximum entropy density estimation in the presence of known sample selection bias. We propose three bias correction approaches.The first one takes advantage of unbiased sufficient statistics which can be obtained from biased samples. The second one estimates thebiased distribution and then factors the bias out. The third one approximates the second by only using samples from the sampling distribution. Weprovide guarantees for the first two approaches and evaluate the performance of all three approaches in synthetic experiments and on real data from species habitat modeling, where maxent has been successfully appliedand where sample selection bias is a significant problem.


Top-Down Control of Visual Attention: A Rational Account

Neural Information Processing Systems

Theories of visual attention commonly posit that early parallel processes extract conspicuous featuressuch as color contrast and motion from the visual field. These features are then combined into a saliency map, and attention is directed to the most salient regions first. Top-down attentional control is achieved by modulating the contribution of different feature types to the saliency map. A key source of data concerning attentional control comes from behavioral studies in which the effect of recent experience is examined asindividuals repeatedly perform a perceptual discrimination task (e.g., "what shape is the odd-colored object?"). The robust finding is that repetition of features of recent trials (e.g., target color) facilitates performance. We view this facilitation as an adaptation to the statistical structure of the environment. We propose a probabilistic model of the environment that is updated after each trial. Under the assumption that attentional control operates so as to make performance more efficient for more likely environmental states, we obtain parsimonious explanations for data from four different experiments. Further, our model provides a rational explanation for why the influence of past experience on attentional control is short lived.