This paper proposes an approach to training rough set models using Bayesian framework trained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The prior probabilities are constructed from the prior knowledge that good rough set models have fewer rules. Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling is conducted through sampling in the rough set granule space and Metropolis algorithm is used as an acceptance criteria. The proposed method is tested to estimate the risk of HIV given demographic data. The results obtained shows that the proposed approach is able to achieve an average accuracy of 58% with the accuracy varying up to 66%. In addition the Bayesian rough set give the probabilities of the estimated HIV status as well as the linguistic rules describing how the demographic parameters drive the risk of HIV.

The social media site Flickr allows users to upload their photos, annotate them with tags, submit them to groups, and also to form social networks by adding other users as contacts. Flickr offers multiple ways of browsing or searching it. One option is tag search, which returns all images tagged with a specific keyword. If the keyword is ambiguous, e.g., ``beetle'' could mean an insect or a car, tag search results will include many images that are not relevant to the sense the user had in mind when executing the query. We claim that users express their photography interests through the metadata they add in the form of contacts and image annotations. We show how to exploit this metadata to personalize search results for the user, thereby improving search performance. First, we show that we can significantly improve search precision by filtering tag search results by user's contacts or a larger social network that includes those contact's contacts. Secondly, we describe a probabilistic model that takes advantage of tag information to discover latent topics contained in the search results. The users' interests can similarly be described by the tags they used for annotating their images. The latent topics found by the model are then used to personalize search results by finding images on topics that are of interest to the user.

Information integration applications, such as mediators or mashups, that require access to information resources currently rely on users manually discovering and integrating them in the application. Manual resource discovery is a slow process, requiring the user to sift through results obtained via keyword-based search. Although search methods have advanced to include evidence from document contents, its metadata and the contents and link structure of the referring pages, they still do not adequately cover information sources -- often called "the hidden Web"-- that dynamically generate documents in response to a query. The recently popular social bookmarking sites, which allow users to annotate and share metadata about various information sources, provide rich evidence for resource discovery. In this paper, we describe a probabilistic model of the user annotation process in a social bookmarking system del.icio.us. We then use the model to automatically find resources relevant to a particular information domain. Our experimental results on data obtained from del.icio.us

Most classical scheduling formulations assume a fixed and known duration for each activity. In this paper, we weaken this assumption, requiring instead that each duration can be represented by an independent random variable with a known mean and variance. The best solutions are ones which have a high probability of achieving a good makespan. We first create a theoretical framework, formally showing how Monte Carlo simulation can be combined with deterministic scheduling algorithms to solve this problem. We propose an associated deterministic scheduling problem whose solution is proved, under certain conditions, to be a lower bound for the probabilistic problem. We then propose and investigate a number of techniques for solving such problems based on combinations of Monte Carlo simulation, solutions to the associated deterministic problem, and either constraint programming or tabu search. Our empirical results demonstrate that a combination of the use of the associated deterministic problem and Monte Carlo simulation results in algorithms that scale best both in terms of problem size and uncertainty. Further experiments point to the correlation between the quality of the deterministic solution and the quality of the probabilistic solution as a major factor responsible for this success.

We introduce a new principle for model selection in regression and classification. Many regression models are controlled by some smoothness or flexibility or complexity parameter c, e.g. the number of neighbors to be averaged over in k nearest neighbor (kNN) regression or the polynomial degree in regression with polynomials. Let f_D^c be the (best) regressor of complexity c on data D. A more flexible regressor can fit more data D' well than a more rigid one. If something (here small loss) is easy to achieve it's typically worth less. We define the loss rank of f_D^c as the number of other (fictitious) data D' that are fitted better by f_D'^c than D is fitted by f_D^c. We suggest selecting the model complexity c that has minimal loss rank (LoRP). Unlike most penalized maximum likelihood variants (AIC,BIC,MDL), LoRP only depends on the regression function and loss function. It works without a stochastic noise model, and is directly applicable to any non-parametric regressor, like kNN. In this paper we formalize, discuss, and motivate LoRP, study it for specific regression problems, in particular linear ones, and compare it to other model selection schemes.

The paper presents a new sampling methodology for Bayesian networks that samples only a subset of variables and applies exact inference to the rest. Cutset sampling is a network structure-exploiting application of the Rao-Blackwellisation principle to sampling in Bayesian networks. It improves convergence by exploiting memory-based inference algorithms. It can also be viewed as an anytime approximation of the exact cutset-conditioning algorithm developed by Pearl. Cutset sampling can be implemented efficiently when the sampled variables constitute a loop-cutset of the Bayesian network and, more generally, when the induced width of the network's graph conditioned on the observed sampled variables is bounded by a constant w. We demonstrate empirically the benefit of this scheme on a range of benchmarks.

We bound the future loss when predicting any (computably) stochastic sequence online. Solomonoff finitely bounded the total deviation of his universal predictor $M$ from the true distribution $mu$ by the algorithmic complexity of $mu$. Here we assume we are at a time $t>1$ and already observed $x=x_1...x_t$. We bound the future prediction performance on $x_{t+1}x_{t+2}...$ by a new variant of algorithmic complexity of $mu$ given $x$, plus the complexity of the randomness deficiency of $x$. The new complexity is monotone in its condition in the sense that this complexity can only decrease if the condition is prolonged. We also briefly discuss potential generalizations to Bayesian model classes and to classification problems.

Given a redundant dictionary of basis vectors (or atoms), our goal is to find maximally sparse representations of signals. Previously, we have argued that a sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) framework is particularly well-suited for this task, showing that it has far fewer local minima than other Bayesian-inspired strategies. In this paper, we provide further evidence forthis claim by proving a restricted equivalence condition, based on the distribution of the nonzero generating model weights, whereby the SBL solution will equal the maximally sparse representation. We also prove that if these nonzero weights are drawn from an approximate Jeffreys prior,then with probability approaching one, our equivalence condition issatisfied.

Given a redundant dictionary of basis vectors (or atoms), our goal is to find maximally sparse representations of signals. Previously, we have argued that a sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) framework is particularly well-suited for this task, showing that it has far fewer local minima than other Bayesian-inspired strategies. In this paper, we provide further evidence for this claim by proving a restricted equivalence condition, based on the distribution of the nonzero generating model weights, whereby the SBL solution will equal the maximally sparse representation. We also prove that if these nonzero weights are drawn from an approximate Jeffreys prior, then with probability approaching one, our equivalence condition is satisfied. Finally, we motivate the worst-case scenario for SBL and demonstrate that it is still better than the most widely used sparse representation algorithms.

Given a redundant dictionary of basis vectors (or atoms), our goal is to find maximally sparse representations of signals. Previously, we have argued that a sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) framework is particularly well-suited for this task, showing that it has far fewer local minima than other Bayesian-inspired strategies. In this paper, we provide further evidence for this claim by proving a restricted equivalence condition, based on the distribution of the nonzero generating model weights, whereby the SBL solution will equal the maximally sparse representation. We also prove that if these nonzero weights are drawn from an approximate Jeffreys prior, then with probability approaching one, our equivalence condition is satisfied. Finally, we motivate the worst-case scenario for SBL and demonstrate that it is still better than the most widely used sparse representation algorithms.