We study a setting that is motivated by the problem of filtering spam messages for many users. Each user receives messages according to an individual, unknown distribution, reflected only in the unlabeled inbox. The spam filter for a user is required to perform well with respect to this distribution. Labeled messages from publicly available sources can be utilized, but they are governed by a distinct distribution, notadequately representing most inboxes. We devise a method that minimizes a loss function with respect to a user's personal distribution based on the available biased sample. A nonparametric hierarchical Bayesian model furthermore generalizesacross users by learning a common prior which is imposed on new email accounts. Empirically, we observe that bias-corrected learning outperforms naivereliance on the assumption of independent and identically distributed data; Dirichlet-enhanced generalization across users outperforms a single ("one size fits all") filter as well as independent filters for all users.

The switch 5t may depend on both the previous 5:71 and hkl.

Bayesian method applied to these models is an attractive approach, used successfully in applications ranging from acoustics t0 bioinformatics.

Many problems that arise in machine learning domain deal with nonlinearity and quite often demand users to obtain global optimal solutions rather than local optimal ones. Optimization problems are inherent in machine learning algorithms and hence many methods in machine learning were inherited from the optimization literature. Popularly known as the initialization problem, the ideal set of parameters required will significantly depend on the given initialization values. The recently developed TRUST-TECH (TRansformation Under STability-reTaining Equilibria CHaracterization) methodology systematically explores the subspace of the parameters to obtain a complete set of local optimal solutions. In this thesis work, we propose TRUST-TECH based methods for solving several optimization and machine learning problems. Two stages namely, the local stage and the neighborhood-search stage, are repeated alternatively in the solution space to achieve improvements in the quality of the solutions. Our methods were tested on both synthetic and real datasets and the advantages of using this novel framework are clearly manifested. This framework not only reduces the sensitivity to initialization, but also allows the flexibility for the practitioners to use various global and local methods that work well for a particular problem of interest. Other hierarchical stochastic algorithms like evolutionary algorithms and smoothing algorithms are also studied and frameworks for combining these methods with TRUST-TECH have been proposed and evaluated on several test systems.

Belief fusion is the principle of combining separate beliefs or bodies of evidence originating from different sources. Depending on the situation to be modelled, different belief fusion methods can be applied. Cumulative and averaging belief fusion is defined for fusing opinions in subjective logic, and for fusing belief functions in general. The principle of fission is the opposite of fusion, namely to eliminate the contribution of a specific belief from an already fused belief, with the purpose of deriving the remaining belief. This paper describes fission of cumulative belief as well as fission of averaging belief in subjective logic. These operators can for example be applied to belief revision in Bayesian belief networks, where the belief contribution of a given evidence source can be determined as a function of a given fused belief and its other contributing beliefs.

This monograph deals with adaptive supervised classification, using tools borrowed from statistical mechanics and information theory, stemming from the PACBayesian approach pioneered by David McAllester and applied to a conception of statistical learning theory forged by Vladimir Vapnik. Using convex analysis on the set of posterior probability measures, we show how to get local measures of the complexity of the classification model involving the relative entropy of posterior distributions with respect to Gibbs posterior measures. We then discuss relative bounds, comparing the generalization error of two classification rules, showing how the margin assumption of Mammen and Tsybakov can be replaced with some empirical measure of the covariance structure of the classification model.We show how to associate to any posterior distribution an effective temperature relating it to the Gibbs prior distribution with the same level of expected error rate, and how to estimate this effective temperature from data, resulting in an estimator whose expected error rate converges according to the best possible power of the sample size adaptively under any margin and parametric complexity assumptions. We describe and study an alternative selection scheme based on relative bounds between estimators, and present a two step localization technique which can handle the selection of a parametric model from a family of those. We show how to extend systematically all the results obtained in the inductive setting to transductive learning, and use this to improve Vapnik's generalization bounds, extending them to the case when the sample is made of independent non-identically distributed pairs of patterns and labels. Finally we review briefly the construction of Support Vector Machines and show how to derive generalization bounds for them, measuring the complexity either through the number of support vectors or through the value of the transductive or inductive margin.

Bayesian classification and regression with high order interactions is largely infeasible because Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) would need to be applied with a great many parameters, whose number increases rapidly with the order. In this paper we show how to make it feasible by effectively reducing the number of parameters, exploiting the fact that many interactions have the same values for all training cases. Our method uses a single ``compressed'' parameter to represent the sum of all parameters associated with a set of patterns that have the same value for all training cases. Using symmetric stable distributions as the priors of the original parameters, we can easily find the priors of these compressed parameters. We therefore need to deal only with a much smaller number of compressed parameters when training the model with MCMC. The number of compressed parameters may have converged before considering the highest possible order. After training the model, we can split these compressed parameters into the original ones as needed to make predictions for test cases. We show in detail how to compress parameters for logistic sequence prediction models. Experiments on both simulated and real data demonstrate that a huge number of parameters can indeed be reduced by our compression method.

We consider how an agent should update her uncertainty when it is represented by a set $\P$ of probability distributions and the agent observes that a random variable $X$ takes on value $x$, given that the agent makes decisions using the minimax criterion, perhaps the best-studied and most commonly-used criterion in the literature. We adopt a game-theoretic framework, where the agent plays against a bookie, who chooses some distribution from $\P$. We consider two reasonable games that differ in what the bookie knows when he makes his choice. Anomalies that have been observed before, like time inconsistency, can be understood as arising important because different games are being played, against bookies with different information. We characterize the important special cases in which the optimal decision rules according to the minimax criterion amount to either conditioning or simply ignoring the information. Finally, we consider the relationship between conditioning and calibration when uncertainty is described by sets of probabilities.

Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) have become a popular tool for computational analysis of biological data in a variety of domains. But, what exactly are they and how do they work? How can we use PGMs to discover patterns that are biologically relevant? And to what extent can PGMs help us formulate new hypotheses that are testable at the bench? This note sketches out some answers and illustrates the main ideas behind the statistical approach to biological pattern discovery.

This article proposes a novel density estimation based algorithm for carrying out supervised machine learning. The proposed algorithm features O(n) time complexity for generating a classifier, where n is the number of sampling instances in the training dataset. This feature is highly desirable in contemporary applications that involve large and still growing databases. In comparison with the kernel density estimation based approaches, the mathe-matical fundamental behind the proposed algorithm is not based on the assump-tion that the number of training instances approaches infinite. As a result, a classifier generated with the proposed algorithm may deliver higher prediction accuracy than the kernel density estimation based classifier in some cases.