Uncertainty
Infinite State Bayes-Nets for Structured Domains
Welling, Max, Porteous, Ian, Bart, Evgeniy
A general modeling framework is proposed that unifies nonparametric-Bayesian models, topic-models and Bayesian networks. This class of infinite state Bayes nets (ISBN) can be viewed as directed networks of'hierarchical Dirichlet processes' (HDPs) where the domain of the variables can be structured (e.g.
A probabilistic model for generating realistic lip movements from speech
Englebienne, Gwenn, Cootes, Tim, Rattray, Magnus
The present work aims to model the correspondence between facial motion and speech. The face and sound are modelled separately, with phonemes being the link between both. We propose a sequential model and evaluate its suitability for the generation of the facial animation from a sequence of phonemes, which we obtain from speech. We evaluate the results both by computing the error between generated sequences and real video, as well as with a rigorous double-blind test with human subjects. Experiments show that our model compares favourably to other existing methods and that the sequences generated are comparable to real video sequences.
Structured Learning with Approximate Inference
Kulesza, Alex, Pereira, Fernando
In many structured prediction problems, the highest-scoring labeling is hard to compute exactly, leading to the use of approximate inference methods. However, when inference is used in a learning algorithm, a good approximation of the score may not be sufficient. We show in particular that learning can fail even with an approximate inference method with rigorous approximation guarantees. There are two reasons for this. First, approximate methods can effectively reduce the expressivity of an underlying model by making it impossible to choose parameters that reliably give good predictions. Second, approximations can respond to parameter changes in such a way that standard learning algorithms are misled. In contrast, we give two positive results in the form of learning bounds for the use of LPrelaxed inference in structured perceptron and empirical risk minimization settings. We argue that without understanding combinations of inference and learning, such as these, that are appropriately compatible, learning performance under approximate inference cannot be guaranteed.
Reinforcement Learning in Continuous Action Spaces through Sequential Monte Carlo Methods
Lazaric, Alessandro, Restelli, Marcello, Bonarini, Andrea
Learning in real-world domains often requires to deal with continuous state and action spaces. Although many solutions have been proposed to apply Reinforcement Learning algorithms to continuous state problems, the same techniques can be hardly extended to continuous action spaces, where, besides the computation of a good approximation of the value function, a fast method for the identification of the highest-valued action is needed. In this paper, we propose a novel actor-critic approach in which the policy of the actor is estimated through sequential Monte Carlo methods. The importance sampling step is performed on the basis of the values learned by the critic, while the resampling step modifies the actor's policy. The proposed approach has been empirically compared to other learning algorithms into several domains; in this paper, we report results obtained in a control problem consisting of steering a boat across a river.
A Bayesian LDA-based model for semi-supervised part-of-speech tagging
Toutanova, Kristina, Johnson, Mark
We present a novel Bayesian model for semi-supervised part-of-speech tagging. Our model extends the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model and incorporates the intuition that words' distributions over tags, p(t w), are sparse. In addition we introduce a model for determining the set of possible tags of a word which captures important dependencies in the ambiguity classes of words. Our model outperforms the best previously proposed model for this task on a standard dataset.
Bayesian Inference for Spiking Neuron Models with a Sparsity Prior
Gerwinn, Sebastian, Bethge, Matthias, Macke, Jakob H., Seeger, Matthias
Generalized linear models are the most commonly used tools to describe the stimulus selectivity of sensory neurons. Here we present a Bayesian treatment of such models. Using the expectation propagation algorithm, we are able to approximate the full posterior distribution over all weights. In addition, we use a Laplacian prior to favor sparse solutions. Therefore, stimulus features that do not critically influence neural activity will be assigned zero weights and thus be effectively excluded by the model.
A Bayesian Framework for Cross-Situational Word-Learning
Goodman, Noah, Tenenbaum, Joshua B., Black, Michael J.
For infants, early word learning is a chicken-and-egg problem. One way to learn a word is to observe that it cooccurs with a particular referent across different situations. Another way is to use the social context of an utterance to infer the intended referent of a word. Here we present a Bayesian model of cross-situational word learning, and an extension of this model that also learns which social cues are relevant to determining reference. We test our model on a small corpus of mother-infant interaction and find it performs better than competing models. Finally, we show that our model accounts for experimental phenomena including mutual exclusivity, fast-mapping, and generalization from social cues.
Exponential Family Predictive Representations of State
Wingate, David, Baveja, Satinder S.
In order to represent state in controlled, partially observable, stochastic dynamical systems, some sort of sufficient statistic for history is necessary. Predictive representations of state (PSRs) capture state as statistics of the future. We introduce a new model of such systems called the "Exponential family PSR," which defines as state the time-varying parameters of an exponential family distribution which models n sequential observations in the future. This choice of state representation explicitly connects PSRs to state-of-the-art probabilistic modeling, which allows us to take advantage of current efforts in high-dimensional density estimation, and in particular, graphical models and maximum entropy models. We present a parameter learning algorithm based on maximum likelihood, and we show how a variety of current approximate inference methods apply. We evaluate the quality of our model with reinforcement learning by directly evaluating the control performance of the model.