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 Uncertainty


Theory and Dynamics of Perceptual Bistability

Neural Information Processing Systems

Perceptual Bistability refers to the phenomenon of spontaneously switching between two or more interpretations of an image under continuous viewing. Although switching behavior is increasingly well characterized, the origins remain elusive. We propose that perceptual switching naturally arises from the brain's search for best interpretations while performing Bayesian inference. In particular, we propose that the brain explores a posterior distribution over image interpretations at a rapid time scale via a sampling-like process and updates its interpretation when a sampled interpretation is better than the discounted value of its current interpretation. We formalize the theory, explicitly derive switching rate distributions and discuss qualitative properties of the theory including the effect of changes in the posterior distribution on switching rates. Finally, predictions of the theory are shown to be consistent with measured changes in human switching dynamics to Necker cube stimuli induced by context.


Robotic Grasping of Novel Objects

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the problem of grasping novel objects, specifically ones that are being seen for the first time through vision. We present a learning algorithm that neither requires, nor tries to build, a 3d model of the object. Instead it predicts, directly as a function of the images, a point at which to grasp the object. Our algorithm is trained via supervised learning, using synthetic images for the training set. We demonstrate on a robotic manipulation platform that this approach successfully grasps a wide variety of objects, such as wine glasses, duct tape, markers, a translucent box, jugs, knife-cutters, cellphones, keys, screwdrivers, staplers, toothbrushes, a thick coil of wire, a strangely shaped power horn, and others, none of which were seen in the training set.


Learning to be Bayesian without Supervision

Neural Information Processing Systems

Bayesian methods are widely used throughout engineering for estimating quantities from corrupted measurements. Those that minimize the mean squared error (known as Bayes least squares, or BLS) are particularly widespread. These estimators are usually derived assuming explicit knowledge of the observation process (expressed as the conditional density of the observation given the quantity to be estimated), and the prior density over that quantity. Despite its appeal, this approach is often criticized for the reliance on knowledge of the prior distribution, since the true prior is usually not known, and in many cases one does not have data drawn from this distribution with which to approximate it. In this case, it must be learned from the same observed measurements that are available in the estimation problem.


Parameter Expanded Variational Bayesian Methods

Neural Information Processing Systems

Bayesian inference has become increasingly important in statistical machine learning. Exact Bayesian calculations are often not feasible in practice, however. A number of approximate Bayesian methods have been proposed to make such calculations practical, among them the variational Bayesian (VB) approach. The VB approach, while useful, can nevertheless suffer from slow convergence to the approximate solution. To address this problem, we propose Parameter-eXpanded Variational Bayesian (PX-VB) methods to speed up VB. The new algorithm is inspired by parameter-expanded expectation maximization (PX-EM) and parameterexpanded data augmentation (PX-DA). Similar to PX-EM and -DA, PX-VB expands a model with auxiliary variables to reduce the coupling between variables in the original model. We analyze the convergence rates of VB and PX-VB and demonstrate the superior convergence rates of PX-VB in variational probit regression and automatic relevance determination.


Bayesian Model Scoring in Markov Random Fields

Neural Information Processing Systems

Scoring structures of undirected graphical models by means of evaluating the marginal likelihood is very hard. The main reason is the presence of the partition function which is intractable to evaluate, let alone integrate over. We propose to approximate the marginal likelihood by employing two levels of approximation: we assume normality of the posterior (the Laplace approximation) and approximate all remaining intractable quantities using belief propagation and the linear response approximation.


Non-rigid point set registration: Coherent Point Drift

Neural Information Processing Systems

We introduce Coherent Point Drift (CPD), a novel probabilistic method for nonrigid registration of point sets. The registration is treated as a Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation problem with motion coherence constraint over the velocity field such that one point set moves coherently to align with the second set. We formulate the motion coherence constraint and derive a solution of regularized ML estimation through the variational approach, which leads to an elegant kernel form. We also derive the EM algorithm for the penalized ML optimization with deterministic annealing. The CPD method simultaneously finds both the nonrigid transformation and the correspondence between two point sets without making any prior assumption of the transformation model except that of motion coherence. This method can estimate complex nonlinear nonrigid transformations, and is shown to be accurate on 2D and 3D examples and robust in the presence of outliers and missing points.


Context Effects in Category Learning: An Investigation of Four Probabilistic Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Categorization is a central activity of human cognition. When an individual is asked to categorize a sequence of items, context effects arise: categorization of one item influences category decisions for subsequent items. Specifically, when experimental subjects are shown an exemplar of some target category, the category prototype appears to be pulled toward the exemplar, and the prototypes of all nontarget categories appear to be pushed away. These push and pull effects diminish with experience, and likely reflect long-term learning of category boundaries. We propose and evaluate four principled probabilistic (Bayesian) accounts of context effects in categorization.


Modeling Dyadic Data with Binary Latent Factors

Neural Information Processing Systems

We introduce binary matrix factorization, a novel model for unsupervised matrix decomposition. The decomposition is learned by fitting a nonparametric Bayesian probabilistic model with binary latent variables to a matrix of dyadic data. Unlike bi-clustering models, which assign each row or column to a single cluster based on a categorical hidden feature, our binary feature model reflects the prior belief that items and attributes can be associated with more than one latent cluster at a time. We provide simple learning and inference rules for this new model and show how to extend it to an infinite model in which the number of features is not a priori fixed but is allowed to grow with the size of the data.


An EM Algorithm for Localizing Multiple Sound Sources in Reverberant Environments

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a method for localizing and separating sound sources in stereo recordings that is robust to reverberation and does not make any assumptions about the source statistics. The method consists of a probabilistic model of binaural multisource recordings and an expectation maximization algorithm for finding the maximum likelihood parameters of that model. These parameters include distributions over delays and assignments of time-frequency regions to sources. We evaluate this method against two comparable algorithms on simulations of simultaneous speech from two or three sources. Our method outperforms the others in anechoic conditions and performs as well as the better of the two in the presence of reverberation.


Bayesian Detection of Infrequent Differences in Sets of Time Series with Shared Structure

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a hierarchical Bayesian model for sets of related, but different, classes of time series data. Our model performs alignment simultaneously across all classes, while detecting and characterizing class-specific differences. During inference the model produces, for each class, a distribution over a canonical representation of the class. These class-specific canonical representations are automatically aligned to one another -- preserving common substructures, and highlighting differences.