We have developed a novel algorithm for integrating source localization and noise suppression based on a probabilistic graphical model of stimulus-evoked MEG/EEG data. Our algorithm localizes multiple dipoles while suppressing noise sources with the computational complexity equivalent to a single dipole scan, and is therefore more efficient than traditional multidipole fitting procedures. In simulation, the algorithm can accurately localize and estimate the time course of several simultaneously-active dipoles, with rotating or fixed orientation, at noise levels typical for averaged MEG data. Furthermore, the algorithm is superior to beamforming techniques, which we show to be an approximation to our graphical model, in estimation of temporally correlated sources. Success of this algorithm for localizing auditory cortex in a tumor patient and for localizing an epileptic spike source are also demonstrated.

Finite mixture model is a powerful tool in many statistical learning problems. In this paper, we propose a general, structure-preserving approach to reduce its model complexity, which can bring significant computational benefits in many applications. The basic idea is to group the original mixture components into compact clusters, and then minimize an upper bound on the approximation error between the original and simplified models.

We introduce a Gaussian process (GP) framework, stochastic relational models (SRM), for learning social, physical, and other relational phenomena where interactions between entities are observed. The key idea is to model the stochastic structure of entity relationships (i.e., links) via a tensor interaction of multiple GPs, each defined on one type of entities. These models in fact define a set of nonparametric priors on infinite dimensional tensor matrices, where each element represents a relationship between a tuple of entities. By maximizing the marginalized likelihood, information is exchanged between the participating GPs through the entire relational network, so that the dependency structure of links is messaged to the dependency of entities, reflected by the adapted GP kernels. The framework offers a discriminative approach to link prediction, namely, predicting the existences, strengths, or types of relationships based on the partially observed linkage network as well as the attributes of entities (if given). We discuss properties and variants of SRM and derive an efficient learning algorithm. Very encouraging experimental results are achieved on a toy problem and a user-movie preference link prediction task. In the end we discuss extensions of SRM to general relational learning tasks.

Go is an ancient board game that poses unique opportunities and challenges for AI and machine learning. Here we develop a machine learning approach to Go, and related board games, focusing primarily on the problem of learning a good evaluation function in a scalable way. Scalability is essential at multiple levels, from the library of local tactical patterns, to the integration of patterns across the board, to the size of the board itself. The system we propose is capable of automatically learning the propensity of local patterns from a library of games. Propensity and other local tactical information are fed into a recursive neural network, derived from a Bayesian network architecture.

Many unsupervised learning problems can be expressed as a form of matrix factorization, reconstructing an observed data matrix as the product of two matrices of latent variables. A standard challenge in solving these problems is determining the dimensionality of the latent matrices. Nonparametric Bayesian matrix factorization is one way of dealing with this challenge, yielding a posterior distribution over possible factorizations of unbounded dimensionality. A drawback to this approach is that posterior estimation is typically done using Gibbs sampling, which can be slow for large problems and when conjugate priors cannot be used. As an alternative, we present a particle filter for posterior estimation in nonparametric Bayesian matrix factorization models. We illustrate this approach with two matrix factorization models and show favorable performance relative to Gibbs sampling.

The ill-posed nature of the MEG/EEG source localization problem requires the incorporation of prior assumptions when choosing an appropriate solution out of an infinite set of candidates. Bayesian methods are useful in this capacity because they allow these assumptions to be explicitly quantified. Recently, a number of empirical Bayesian approaches have been proposed that attempt a form of model selection by using the data to guide the search for an appropriate prior. While seemingly quite different in many respects, we apply a unifying framework based on automatic relevance determination (ARD) that elucidates various attributes of these methods and suggests directions for improvement. We also derive theoretical properties of this methodology related to convergence, local minima, and localization bias and explore connections with established algorithms.

Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) is a Bayesian network that has recently gained much popularity in applications ranging from document modeling to computer vision. Due to the large scale nature of these applications, current inference procedures like variational Bayes and Gibbs sampling have been found lacking. In this paper we propose the collapsed variational Bayesian inference algorithm for LDA, and show that it is computationally efficient, easy to implement and significantly more accurate than standard variational Bayesian inference for LDA.

In supervised learning there is a typical presumption that the training and test points are taken from the same distribution. In practice this assumption is commonly violated. The situations where the training and test data are from different distributions is called covariate shift. Recent work has examined techniques for dealing with covariate shift in terms of minimisation of generalisation error. As yet the literature lacks a Bayesian generative perspective on this problem. This paper tackles this issue for regression models. Recent work on covariate shift can be understood in terms of mixture regression. Using this view, we obtain a general approach to regression under covariate shift, which reproduces previous work as a special case. The main advantages of this new formulation over previous models for covariate shift are that we no longer need to presume the test and training densities are known, the regression and density estimation are combined into a single procedure, and previous methods are reproduced as special cases of this procedure, shedding light on the implicit assumptions the methods are making.

Structural equation models can be seen as an extension of Gaussian belief networks to cyclic graphs, and we show they can be understood generatively as the model for the joint distribution of long term average equilibrium activity of Gaussian dynamic belief networks. Most use of structural equation models in fMRI involves postulating a particular structure and comparing learnt parameters across different groups. In this paper it is argued that there are situations where priors about structure are not firm or exhaustive, and given sufficient data, it is worth investigating learning network structure as part of the approach to connectivity analysis. First we demonstrate structure learning on a toy problem. We then show that for particular fMRI data the simple models usually assumed are not supported. We show that is is possible to learn sensible structural equation models that can provide modelling benefits, but that are not necessarily going to be the same as a true causal model, and suggest the combination of prior models and learning or the use of temporal information from dynamic models may provide more benefits than learning structural equations alone.

We present a new statistical framework called hidden Markov Dirichlet process (HMDP) to jointly model the genetic recombinations among possibly infinite number of founders and the coalescence-with-mutation events in the resulting genealogies. The HMDP posits that a haplotype of genetic markers is generated by a sequence of recombination events that select an ancestor for each locus from an unbounded set of founders according to a 1st-order Markov transition process. Conjoining this process with a mutation model, our method accommodates both between-lineage recombination and within-lineage sequence variations, and leads to a compact and natural interpretation of the population structure and inheritance process underlying haplotype data. We have developed an efficient sampling algorithm for HMDP based on a two-level nested Pólya urn scheme. On both simulated and real SNP haplotype data, our method performs competitively or significantly better than extant methods in uncovering the recombination hotspots along chromosomal loci; and in addition it also infers the ancestral genetic patterns and offers a highly accurate map of ancestral compositions of modern populations.