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 Uncertainty


On Sparsity and Overcompleteness in Image Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Computational models of visual cortex, and in particular those based on sparse coding, have enjoyed much recent attention. Despite this currency, the question of how sparse or how over-complete a sparse representation should be, has gone without principled answer. Here, we use Bayesian model-selection methods to address these questions for a sparse-coding model based on a Student-t prior. Having validated our methods on toy data, we find that natural images are indeed best modelled by extremely sparse distributions; although for the Student-t prior, the associated optimal basis size is only modestly overcomplete.


A probabilistic model for generating realistic lip movements from speech

Neural Information Processing Systems

The present work aims to model the correspondence between facial motion and speech. The face and sound are modelled separately, with phonemes being the link between both. We propose a sequential model and evaluate its suitability for the generation of the facial animation from a sequence of phonemes, which we obtain from speech. We evaluate the results both by computing the error between generated sequences and real video, as well as with a rigorous double-blind test with human subjects. Experiments show that our model compares favourably to other existing methods and that the sequences generated are comparable to real video sequences.


Collapsed Variational Inference for HDP

Neural Information Processing Systems

A wide variety of Dirichlet-multinomial'topic' models have found interesting applications inrecent years. While Gibbs sampling remains an important method of inference in such models, variational techniques have certain advantages such as easy assessment of convergence, easy optimization without the need to maintain detailed balance, a bound on the marginal likelihood, and sidestepping of issues with topic-identifiability. The most accurate variational technique thus far, namely collapsed variational latent Dirichlet allocation, did not deal with model selection nor did it include inference for hyperparameters. We address both issues by generalizing thetechnique, obtaining the first variational algorithm to deal with the hierarchical Dirichlet process and to deal with hyperparameters of Dirichlet variables.


Convex Clustering with Exemplar-Based Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Clustering is often formulated as the maximum likelihood estimation of a mixture model that explains the data. The EM algorithm widely used to solve the resulting optimization problem is inherently a gradient-descent method and is sensitive to initialization. The resulting solution is a local optimum in the neighborhood of the initial guess. This sensitivity to initialization presents a significant challenge in clustering large data sets into many clusters. In this paper, we present a different approachto approximate mixture fitting for clustering. We introduce an exemplar-based likelihood function that approximates the exact likelihood. This formulation leads to a convex minimization problem and an efficient algorithm with guaranteed convergence to the globally optimal solution. The resulting clustering canbe thought of as a probabilistic mapping of the data points to the set of exemplars that minimizes the average distance and the information-theoretic cost of mapping.


Predictive Matrix-Variate t Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

It is becoming increasingly important to learn from a partially-observed random matrix and predict its missing elements. We assume that the entire matrix is a single sample drawn from a matrix-variate t distribution and suggest a matrix-variate t model (MVTM) to predict those missing elements. We show that MVTM generalizes a range of known probabilistic models, and automatically performs model selection to encourage sparse predictive models. Due to the non-conjugacy of its prior, it is difficult to make predictions by computing the mode or mean of the posterior distribution. We suggest an optimization method that sequentially minimizes a convex upper-bound of the log-likelihood, which is very efficient and scalable. The experiments on a toy data and EachMovie dataset show a good predictive accuracy of the model.


A New View of Automatic Relevance Determination

Neural Information Processing Systems

Automatic relevance determination (ARD), and the closely-related sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) framework, are effective tools for pruning large numbers of irrelevant features. However, popular update rules used for this process are either prohibitively slow in practice and/or heuristic in nature without proven convergence properties. This paper furnishes an alternative means of optimizing a general ARD cost function using an auxiliary function that can naturally be solved using a series of re-weighted L1 problems. The result is an efficient algorithm that can be implemented using standard convex programming toolboxes and is guaranteed to converge to a stationary point unlike existing methods. The analysis also leads to additional insights into the behavior of previous ARD updates as well as the ARD cost function. For example, the standard fixed-point updates of MacKay (1992) are shown to be iteratively solving a particular min-max problem, although they are not guaranteed to lead to a stationary point. The analysis also reveals that ARD is exactly equivalent to performing MAP estimation using a particular feature- and noise-dependent \textit{non-factorial} weight prior with several desirable properties over conventional priors with respect to feature selection. In particular, it provides a tighter approximation to the L0 quasi-norm sparsity measure than the L1 norm. Overall these results suggests alternative cost functions and update procedures for selecting features and promoting sparse solutions.


Exponential Family Predictive Representations of State

Neural Information Processing Systems

In order to represent state in controlled, partially observable, stochastic dynamical systems, some sort of sufficient statistic for history is necessary. Predictive representations ofstate (PSRs) capture state as statistics of the future. We introduce a new model of such systems called the "Exponential family PSR," which defines as state the time-varying parameters of an exponential family distribution which models n sequential observations in the future. This choice of state representation explicitly connects PSRs to state-of-the-art probabilistic modeling, which allows us to take advantage of current efforts in high-dimensional density estimation, and in particular, graphical models and maximum entropy models. We present a parameter learningalgorithm based on maximum likelihood, and we show how a variety of current approximate inference methods apply. We evaluate the quality ofour model with reinforcement learning by directly evaluating the control performance of the model.


Infinite State Bayes-Nets for Structured Domains

Neural Information Processing Systems

A general modeling framework is proposed that unifies nonparametric-Bayesian models, topic-models and Bayesian networks. This class of infinite state Bayes nets (ISBN) can be viewed as directed networks of'hierarchical Dirichlet processes' (HDPs) where the domain of the variables can be structured (e.g.



The Infinite Gamma-Poisson Feature Model

Neural Information Processing Systems

We address the problem of factorial learning which associates a set of latent causes or features with the observed data. Factorial models usually assume that each feature has a single occurrence in a given data point. However, there are data such as images where latent features have multiple occurrences, e.g. a visual object class can have multiple instances shown in the same image. To deal with such cases, we present a probability model over non-negative integer valued matrices with possibly unbounded number of columns. This model can play the role of the prior in an nonparametric Bayesian learning scenario where both the latent features and the number of their occurrences are unknown. We use this prior together with a likelihood model for unsupervised learning from images using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference algorithm.