Modern machine learning-based approaches to computer vision require very large databases of labeled images. Some contemporary vision systems already require on the order of millions of images for training (e.g., Omron face detector). While the collection of these large databases is becoming a bottleneck, new Internet-based services that allow labelers from around the world to be easily hired and managed provide a promising solution. However, using these services to label large databases brings with it new theoretical and practical challenges: (1) The labelers may have wide ranging levels of expertise which are unknown a priori, and in some cases may be adversarial; (2) images may vary in their level of difficulty; and (3) multiple labels for the same image must be combined to provide an estimate of the actual label of the image. Probabilistic approaches provide a principled way to approach these problems. In this paper we present a probabilistic model and use it to simultaneously infer the label of each image, the expertise of each labeler, and the difficulty of each image. On both simulated and real data, we demonstrate that the model outperforms the commonly used ``Majority Vote heuristic for inferring image labels, and is robust to both adversarial and noisy labelers.

Causal structure-discovery techniques usually assume that all causes of more than one variable are observed. This is the so-called causal sufficiency assumption. In practice, it is untestable, and often violated. In this paper, we present an efficient causal structure-learning algorithm, suited for causally insufficient data. Similar to algorithms such as IC* and FCI, the proposed approach drops the causal sufficiency assumption and learns a structure that indicates (potential) latent causes for pairs of observed variables. Assuming a constant local density of the data-generating graph, our algorithm makes a quadratic number of conditional-independence tests w.r.t. the number of variables. We show with experiments that our algorithm is comparable to the state-of-the-art FCI algorithm in accuracy, while being several orders of magnitude faster on large problems. We conclude that MBCS* makes a new range of causally insufficient problems computationally tractable.

We consider the problem of bounding from above the log-partition function corresponding to second-order Ising models for binary distributions. We introduce a new bound, the cardinality bound, which can be computed via convex optimization. The corresponding error on the logpartition functionis bounded above by twice the distance, in model parameter space, to a class of "standard" Ising models, for which variable interdependence is described via a simple mean field term. In the context of maximum-likelihood, using the new bound instead of the exact log-partition function, while constraining the distance to the class of standard Ising models, leads not only to a good approximation to the log-partition function, but also to a model that is parsimonious, and easily interpretable.We compare our bound with the log-determinant bound introduced by Wainwright and Jordan (2006), and show that when the l

We develop a probabilistic model of human memory performance in free recall experiments. In these experiments, a subject first studies a list of words and then tries to recall them. To model these data, we draw on both previous psychological research and statistical topic models of text documents. We assume that memories are formed by assimilating the semantic meaning of studied words (represented as a distribution over topics) into a slowly changing latent context (represented in the same space). During recall, this context is reinstated and used as a cue for retrieving studied words. By conceptualizing memory retrieval as a dynamic latent variable model, we are able to use Bayesian inference to represent uncertainty and reason about the cognitive processes underlying memory. We present a particle filter algorithm for performing approximate posterior inference, and evaluate our model on the prediction of recalled words in experimental data. By specifying the model hierarchically, we are also able to capture inter-subject variability.

We consider the problem of obtaining the approximate maximum a posteriori estimate of a discrete random field characterized by pairwise potentials that form a truncated convex model. For this problem, we propose an improved st-mincut based move making algorithm. Unlike previous move making approaches, which either provide a loose bound or no bound on the quality of the solution (in terms of the corresponding Gibbs energy), our algorithm achieves the same guarantees as the standard linear programming (LP) relaxation. Compared to previous approaches based on the LP relaxation, e.g. interior-point algorithms or tree-reweighted message passing (TRW), our method is faster as it uses only the efficient st-mincut algorithm in its design. Furthermore, it directly provides us with a primal solution (unlike TRW and other related methods which attempt to solve the dual of the LP). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach on both synthetic and standard real data problems. Our analysis also opens up an interesting question regarding the relationship between move making algorithms (such as $\alpha$-expansion and the algorithms presented in this paper) and the randomized rounding schemes used with convex relaxations. We believe that further explorations in this direction would help design efficient algorithms for more complex relaxations.

``How is information decoded in the brain?'' is one of the most difficult and important questions in neuroscience. Whether neural correlation is important or not in decoding neural activities is of special interest. We have developed a general framework for investigating how far the decoding process in the brain can be simplified. First, we hierarchically construct simplified probabilistic models of neural responses that ignore more than $K$th-order correlations by using a maximum entropy principle. Then, we compute how much information is lost when information is decoded using the simplified models, i.e., ``mismatched decoders''. We introduce an information theoretically correct quantity for evaluating the information obtained by mismatched decoders. We applied our proposed framework to spike data for vertebrate retina. We used 100-ms natural movies as stimuli and computed the information contained in neural activities about these movies. We found that the information loss is negligibly small in population activities of ganglion cells even if all orders of correlation are ignored in decoding. We also found that if we assume stationarity for long durations in the information analysis of dynamically changing stimuli like natural movies, pseudo correlations seem to carry a large portion of the information.

The synchronous brain activity measured via MEG (or EEG) can be interpreted as arising from a collection (possibly large) of current dipoles or sources located throughout the cortex. Estimating the number, location, and orientation of these sources remains a challenging task, one that is significantly compounded by the effects of source correlations and the presence of interference from spontaneous brain activity, sensor noise, and other artifacts. This paper derives an empirical Bayesian method for addressing each of these issues in a principled fashion. The resulting algorithm guarantees descent of a cost function uniquely designed to handle unknown orientations and arbitrary correlations. Robust interference suppression is also easily incorporated. In a restricted setting, the proposed method is shown to have theoretically zero bias estimating both the location and orientation of multi-component dipoles even in the presence of correlations, unlike a variety of existing Bayesian localization methods or common signal processing techniques such as beamforming and sLORETA. Empirical results on both simulated and real data sets verify the efficacy of this approach.

Discriminatively trained undirected graphical models have had wide empirical success, and there has been increasing interest in toolkits that ease their application to complex relational data. The power in relational models is in their repeated structure and tied parameters; at issue is how to define these structures in a powerful and flexible way. Rather than using a declarative language, such as SQL or first-order logic, we advocate using an imperative language to express various aspects of model structure, inference, and learning. By combining the traditional, declarative, statistical semantics of factor graphs with imperative definitions of their construction and operation, we allow the user to mix declarative and procedural domain knowledge, and also gain significant efficiencies. We have implemented such imperatively defined factor graphs in a system we call Factorie, a software library for an object-oriented, strongly-typed, functional language. In experimental comparisons to Markov Logic Networks on joint segmentation and coreference, we find our approach to be 3-15 times faster while reducing error by 20-25%-achieving a new state of the art.

Many human interactions involve pieces of information being passed from one person to another, raising the question of how this process of information transmission is affected by the capacities of the agents involved. In the 1930s, Sir Frederic Bartlett explored the influence of memory biases in “serial reproduction” of information, in which one person’s reconstruction of a stimulus from memory becomes the stimulus seen by the next person. These experiments were done using relatively uncontrolled stimuli such as pictures and stories, but suggested that serial reproduction would transform information in a way that reflected the biases inherent in memory. We formally analyze serial reproduction using a Bayesian model of reconstruction from memory, giving a general result characterizing the effect of memory biases on information transmission. We then test the predictions of this account in two experiments using simple one-dimensional stimuli. Our results provide theoretical and empirical justification for the idea that serial reproduction reflects memory biases.

Multiple object tracking is a task commonly used to investigate the architecture of human visual attention. Human participants show a distinctive pattern of successes and failures in tracking experiments that is often attributed to limits on an object system, a tracking module, or other specialized cognitive structures. Here we use a computational analysis of the task of object tracking to ask which human failures arise from cognitive limitations and which are consequences of inevitable perceptual uncertainty in the tracking task. We find that many human performance phenomena, measured through novel behavioral experiments, are naturally produced by the operation of our ideal observer model (a Rao-Blackwelized particle filter). The tradeoff between the speed and number of objects being tracked, however, can only arise from the allocation of a flexible cognitive resource, which can be formalized as either memory or attention.