Young children demonstrate the ability to make inferences about the preferences of other agents based on their choices. However, there exists no overarching account of what children are doing when they learn about preferences or how they use that knowledge. We use a rational model of preference learning, drawing on ideas from economics and computer science, to explain the behavior of children in several recent experiments. Specifically, we show how a simple econometric model can be extended to capture two- to four-year-olds’ use of statistical information in inferring preferences, and their generalization of these preferences.

Neural activity is non-stationary and varies across time.

With the increased availability of data for complex domains, it is desirable to learn Bayesian network structures that are sufficiently expressive for generalization while also allowing for tractable inference. While the method of thin junction trees can, in principle, be used for this purpose, its fully greedy nature makes it prone to overfitting, particularly when data is scarce. In this work we present a novel method for learning Bayesian networks of bounded treewidth that employs global structure modifications and that is polynomial in the size of the graph and the treewidth bound. At the heart of our method is a triangulated graph that we dynamically update in a way that facilitates the addition of chain structures that increase the bound on the model's treewidth by at most one. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our ``treewidth-friendly'' method on several real-life datasets. Importantly, we also show that by using global operators, we are able to achieve better generalization even when learning Bayesian networks of unbounded treewidth.

Cognitive control refers to the flexible deployment of memory and attention in response to task demands and current goals. Control is often studied experimentally by presenting sequences of stimuli, some demanding a response, and others modulating the stimulus-response mapping. In these tasks, participants must maintain information about the current stimulus-response mapping in working memory. Prominent theories of cognitive control use recurrent neural nets to implement working memory, and optimize memory utilization via reinforcement learning. We present a novel perspective on cognitive control in which working memory representations are intrinsically probabilistic, and control operations that maintain and update working memory are dynamically determined via probabilistic inference. We show that our model provides a parsimonious account of behavioral and neuroimaging data, and suggest that it offers an elegant conceptualization of control in which behavior can be cast as optimal, subject to limitations on learning and the rate of information processing. Moreover, our model provides insight into how task instructions can be directly translated into appropriate behavior and then efficiently refined with subsequent task experience.

We develop a statistical framework for the simultaneous, unsupervised segmentation and discovery of visual object categories from image databases. Examining a large set of manually segmented scenes, we use chi--square tests to show that object frequencies and segment sizes both follow power law distributions, which are well modeled by the Pitman--Yor (PY) process. This nonparametric prior distribution leads to learning algorithms which discover an unknown set of objects, and segmentation methods which automatically adapt their resolution to each image. Generalizing previous applications of PY processes, we use Gaussian processes to discover spatially contiguous segments which respect image boundaries. Using a novel family of variational approximations, our approach produces segmentations which compare favorably to state--of--the--art methods, while simultaneously discovering categories shared among natural scenes.

A non-parametric Bayesian model is proposed for processing multiple images. The analysis employs image features and, when present, the words associated with accompanying annotations. The model clusters the images into classes, and each image is segmented into a set of objects, also allowing the opportunity to assign a word to each object (localized labeling). Each object is assumed to be represented as a heterogeneous mix of components, with this realized via mixture models linking image features to object types. The number of image classes, number of object types, and the characteristics of the object-feature mixture models are inferred non-parametrically. To constitute spatially contiguous objects, a new logistic stick-breaking process is developed. Inference is performed efficiently via variational Bayesian analysis, with example results presented on two image databases.

Unexpected stimuli are a challenge to any machine learning algorithm. Here we identify distinct types of unexpected events, focusing on 'incongruent events' - when 'general level' and 'specific level' classifiers give conflicting predictions. We define a formal framework for the representation and processing of incongruent events: starting from the notion of label hierarchy, we show how partial order on labels can be deduced from such hierarchies. For each event, we compute its probability in different ways, based on adjacent levels (according to the partial order) in the label hierarchy . An incongruent event is an event where the probability computed based on some more specific level (in accordance with the partial order) is much smaller than the probability computed based on some more general level, leading to conflicting predictions. We derive algorithms to detect incongruent events from different types of hierarchies, corresponding to class membership or part membership. Respectively, we show promising results with real data on two specific problems: Out Of Vocabulary words in speech recognition, and the identification of a new sub-class (e.g., the face of a new individual) in audio-visual facial object recognition.

Accurate and efficient inference in evolutionary trees is a central problem in computational biology.While classical treatments have made unrealistic site independence assumptions, ignoring insertions and deletions, realistic approaches require tracking insertions and deletions along the phylogenetic tree--a challenging and unsolved computational problem. We propose a new ancestry resampling procedure for inference in evolutionary trees. We evaluate our method in two problem domains--multiple sequence alignment and reconstruction of ancestral sequences--and show substantial improvement over the current state of the art.

The Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle selects the model that has the shortest code for data plus model. We show that for a countable class of models, MDL predictions are close to the true distribution in a strong sense. The result is completely general. No independence, ergodicity, stationarity, identifiability, or other assumption on the model class need to be made. More formally, we show that for any countable class of models, the distributions selected by MDL (or MAP) asymptotically predict (merge with) the true measure in the class in total variation distance.

Sampling functions in Gaussian process (GP) models is challenging because of the highly correlated posterior distribution. We describe an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for sampling from the posterior process of the GP model. This algorithm uses control variables which are auxiliary function values that provide a low dimensional representation of the function. At each iteration, the algorithm proposes new values for the control variables and generates the function from the conditional GP prior. The control variable input locations are found by continuously minimizing an objective function. We demonstrate the algorithm on regression and classification problems and we use it to estimate the parameters of a differential equation model of gene regulation.