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 Uncertainty


Transfer Learning by Distribution Matching for Targeted Advertising

Neural Information Processing Systems

We address the problem of learning classifiers for several related tasks that may differ in their joint distribution of input and output variables. For each task, small - possibly even empty - labeled samples and large unlabeled samples are available. While the unlabeled samples reflect the target distribution, the labeled samples may be biased. We derive a solution that produces resampling weights which match the pool of all examples to the target distribution of any given task. Our work is motivated by the problem of predicting sociodemographic features for users of web portals, based on the content which they have accessed. Here, questionnaires offered to a small portion of each portal's users produce biased samples. Transfer learning enables us to make predictions even for new portals with few or no training data and improves the overall prediction accuracy.


Shape-Based Object Localization for Descriptive Classification

Neural Information Processing Systems

Discriminative tasks, including object categorization and detection, are central components of high-level computer vision. Sometimes, however, we are interested inmore refined aspects of the object in an image, such as pose or particular regions. In this paper we develop a method (LOOPS) for learning a shape and image feature model that can be trained on a particular object class, and used to outline instances of the class in novel images. Furthermore, while the training data consists of uncorresponded outlines, the resulting LOOPS model contains a set of landmark points that appear consistently across instances, and can be accurately localized in an image. Our model achieves state-of-the-art results in precisely outlining objectsthat exhibit large deformations and articulations in cluttered natural images. These localizations can then be used to address a range of tasks, including descriptive classification, search, and clustering.


Decoupling Sparsity and Smoothness in the Discrete Hierarchical Dirichlet Process

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a nonparametric hierarchical Bayesian model of document collections that decouples sparsity and smoothness in the component distributions (i.e., the "topics"). In the sparse topic model (sparseTM), each topic is represented by a bank of selector variables that determine which terms appear in the topic. Thus each topic is associated with a subset of the vocabulary, and topic smoothness is modeled on this subset. We develop an efficient Gibbs sampler for the sparseTM that includes a general-purpose method for sampling from a Dirichlet mixture with a combinatorial number of components. We demonstrate the sparseTM on four real-world datasets. Compared to traditional approaches, the empirical results will show that sparseTMs give better predictive performance with simpler inferred models.


On the Efficient Minimization of Classification Calibrated Surrogates

Neural Information Processing Systems

Bartlett et al (2006) recently proved that a ground condition for convex surrogates, classification calibration, ties up the minimization of the surrogates and classification risks, and left as an important problem the algorithmic questions about the minimization of these surrogates. In this paper, we propose an algorithm which provably minimizes any classification calibrated surrogate strictly convex and differentiable --- a set whose losses span the exponential, logistic and squared losses ---, with boosting-type guaranteed convergence rates under a weak learning assumption. A particular subclass of these surrogates, that we call balanced convex surrogates, has a key rationale that ties it to maximum likelihood estimation, zero-sum games and the set of losses that satisfy some of the most common requirements for losses in supervised learning. We report experiments on more than 50 readily available domains of 11 flavors of the algorithm, that shed light on new surrogates, and the potential of data dependent strategies to tune surrogates.


Bayesian Experimental Design of Magnetic Resonance Imaging Sequences

Neural Information Processing Systems

We show how improved sequences for magnetic resonance imaging can be found through automated optimization of Bayesian design scores. Combining recent advances in approximate Bayesian inference and natural image statistics with high-performance numerical computation, we propose the first scalable Bayesian experimental design framework for this problem of high relevance to clinical and brain research. Our solution requires approximate inference for dense, non-Gaussian models on a scale seldom addressed before. We propose a novel scalable variational inference algorithm, and show how powerful methods of numerical mathematics can be modified to compute primitives in our framework. Our approach is evaluated on a realistic setup with raw data from a 3T MR scanner.


Syntactic Topic Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

We develop the syntactic topic model (STM), a nonparametric Bayesian model of parsed documents. The STM generates words that are both thematically and syntactically constrained, which combines the semantic insights of topic models with the syntactic information available from parse trees. Each word of a sentence is generated by a distribution that combines document-specific topic weights and parse-tree-specific syntactic transitions. Words are assumed to be generated in an order that respects the parse tree. We derive an approximate posterior inference method based on variational methods for hierarchical Dirichlet processes, and we report qualitative and quantitative results on both synthetic data and hand-parsed documents.


Linearly constrained Bayesian matrix factorization for blind source separation

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a general Bayesian approach to probabilistic matrix factorization subject to linear constraints. The approach is based on a Gaussian observation model and Gaussian priors with bilinear equality and inequality constraints. We present an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo inference procedure based on Gibbs sampling. Special cases of the proposed model are Bayesian formulations of non-negative matrix factorization and factor analysis. The method is evaluated on a blind source separation problem. We demonstrate that our algorithm can be used to extract meaningful and interpretable features that are remarkably different from features extracted using existing related matrix factorization techniques.


On the Complexity of Linear Prediction: Risk Bounds, Margin Bounds, and Regularization

Neural Information Processing Systems

We provide sharp bounds for Rademacher and Gaussian complexities of (constrained) linear classes. These bounds make short work of providing a number of corollaries including: risk bounds for linear prediction (including settings where the weight vectors are constrained by either $L_2$ or $L_1$ constraints), margin bounds (including both $L_2$ and $L_1$ margins, along with more general notions based on relative entropy), a proof of the PAC-Bayes theorem, and $L_2$ covering numbers (with $L_p$ norm constraints and relative entropy constraints). In addition to providing a unified analysis, the results herein provide some of the sharpest risk and margin bounds (improving upon a number of previous results). Interestingly, our results show that the uniform convergence rates of empirical risk minimization algorithms tightly match the regret bounds of online learning algorithms for linear prediction (up to a constant factor of 2).


A Stochastic approximation method for inference in probabilistic graphical models

Neural Information Processing Systems

We describe a new algorithmic framework for inference in probabilistic models, and apply it to inference for latent Dirichlet allocation. Our framework adopts the methodology of variational inference, but unlike existing variational methods such as mean field and expectation propagation it is not restricted to tractable classes of approximating distributions. Our approach can also be viewed as a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method, but unlike existing SMC methods there is no need to design the artificial sequence of distributions. Notably, our framework offers a principled means to exchange the variance of an importance sampling estimate for the bias incurred through variational approximation. Experiments on a challenging inference problem in population genetics demonstrate improvements in stability and accuracy over existing methods, and at a comparable cost.


Rethinking LDA: Why Priors Matter

Neural Information Processing Systems

Implementations of topic models typically use symmetric Dirichlet priors with fixed concentration parameters, with the implicit assumption that such smoothing parameters" have little practical effect. In this paper, we explore several classes of structured priors for topic models. We find that an asymmetric Dirichlet prior over the document-topic distributions has substantial advantages over a symmetric prior, while an asymmetric prior over the topic-word distributions provides no real benefit. Approximation of this prior structure through simple, efficient hyperparameter optimization steps is sufficient to achieve these performance gains. The prior structure we advocate substantially increases the robustness of topic models to variations in the number of topics and to the highly skewed word frequency distributions common in natural language. Since this prior structure can be implemented using efficient algorithms that add negligible cost beyond standard inference techniques, we recommend it as a new standard for topic modeling."