Recent work on the statistical modeling of neural responses has focused on modulated renewal processes in which the spike rate is a function of the stimulus and recent spiking history. Typically, these models incorporate spike-history dependencies via either: (A) a conditionally-Poisson process with rate dependent on a linear projection of the spike train history (e.g., generalized linear model); or (B) a modulated non-Poisson renewal process (e.g., inhomogeneous gamma process). Here we show that the two approaches can be combined, resulting in a {\it conditional renewal} (CR) model for neural spike trains. This model captures both real and rescaled-time effects, and can be fit by maximum likelihood using a simple application of the time-rescaling theorem [1]. We show that for any modulated renewal process model, the log-likelihood is concave in the linear filter parameters only under certain restrictive conditions on the renewal density (ruling out many popular choices, e.g. gamma with $\kappa \neq1$), suggesting that real-time history effects are easier to estimate than non-Poisson renewal properties. Moreover, we show that goodness-of-fit tests based on the time-rescaling theorem [1] quantify relative-time effects, but do not reliably assess accuracy in spike prediction or stimulus-response modeling. We illustrate the CR model with applications to both real and simulated neural data.

This paper considers a sensitivity analysis in Hidden Markov Models with continuous state and observation spaces. We propose an Infinitesimal Perturbation Analysis (IPA) on the filtering distribution with respect to some parameters of the model. We describe a methodology for using any algorithm that estimates the filtering density, such as Sequential Monte Carlo methods, to design an algorithm that estimates its gradient. The resulting IPA estimator is proven to be asymptotically unbiased, consistent and has computational complexity linear in the number of particles. We consider an application of this analysis to the problem of identifying unknown parameters of the model given a sequence of observations. We derive an IPA estimator for the gradient of the log-likelihood, which may be used in a gradient method for the purpose of likelihood maximization. We illustrate the method with several numerical experiments.

There is a growing body of experimental evidence to suggest that the brain is capable of approximating optimal Bayesian inference in the face of noisy input stimuli. Despite this progress, the neural underpinnings of this computation are still poorly understood. In this paper we focus on the problem of Bayesian filtering of stochastic time series. In particular we introduce a novel neural network, derived from a line attractor architecture, whose dynamics map directly onto those of the Kalman Filter in the limit where the prediction error is small. When the prediction error is large we show that the network responds robustly to change-points in a way that is qualitatively compatible with the optimal Bayesian model. The model suggests ways in which probability distributions are encoded in the brain and makes a number of testable experimental predictions.

Many motor skills in humanoid robotics can be learned using parametrized motor primitives as done in imitation learning. However, most interesting motor learning problems are high-dimensional reinforcement learning problems often beyond the reach of current methods. In this paper, we extend previous work on policy learning from the immediate reward case to episodic reinforcement learning. We show that this results into a general, common framework also connected to policy gradient methods and yielding a novel algorithm for policy learning by assuming a form of exploration that is particularly well-suited for dynamic motor primitives. The resulting algorithm is an EM-inspired algorithm applicable in complex motor learning tasks. We compare this algorithm to alternative parametrized policy search methods and show that it outperforms previous methods. We apply it in the context of motor learning and show that it can learn a complex Ball-in-a-Cup task using a real Barrett WAM robot arm.

Existing models of categorization typically represent to-be-classified items as points in a multidimensional space. While from a mathematical point of view, an infinite number of basis sets can be used to represent points in this space, the choice of basis set is psychologically crucial. People generally choose the same basis dimensions, and have a strong preference to generalize along the axes of these dimensions, but not diagonally". What makes some choices of dimension special? We explore the idea that the dimensions used by people echo the natural variation in the environment. Specifically, we present a rational model that does not assume dimensions, but learns the same type of dimensional generalizations that people display. This bias is shaped by exposing the model to many categories with a structure hypothesized to be like those which children encounter. Our model can be viewed as a type of transformed Dirichlet process mixture model, where it is the learning of the base distribution of the Dirichlet process which allows dimensional generalization.The learning behaviour of our model captures the developmental shift from roughly "isotropic" for children to the axis-aligned generalization that adults show."

In this paper we propose a new incremental spike sorting model that automatically eliminates refractory period violations, accounts for action potential waveform drift, and can handle appearance" and "disappearance" of neurons. Our approach is to augment a known time-varying Dirichlet process that ties together a sequence of infinite Gaussian mixture models, one per action potential waveform observation, with an interspike-interval-dependent likelihood that prohibits refractory period violations. We demonstrate this model by showing results from sorting two publicly available neural data recordings for which the a partial ground truth labeling is known."

In this paper we explore the problem of biasing unsupervised models to favor sparsity. We extend the posterior regularization framework [8] to encourage the model to achieve posterior sparsity on the unlabeled training data. We apply this new method to learn first-order HMMs for unsupervised part-of-speech (POS) tagging, and show that HMMs learned this way consistently and significantly out-performs both EM-trained HMMs, and HMMs with a sparsity-inducing Dirichlet prior trained by variational EM. We evaluate these HMMs on three languages — English, Bulgarian and Portuguese — under four conditions. We find that our method always improves performance with respect to both baselines, while variational Bayes actually degrades performance in most cases. We increase accuracy with respect to EM by 2.5%-8.7% absolute and we see improvements even in a semisupervised condition where a limited dictionary is provided.

We present a sequence of unsupervised, nonparametric Bayesian models for clustering complex linguistic objects. In this approach, we consider a potentially infinite number of features and categorical outcomes. We evaluate these models for the task of within- and cross-document event coreference on two corpora. All the models we investigated show significant improvements when compared against an existing baseline for this task.

Language comprehension in humans is significantly constrained by memory, yet rapid, highly incremental, and capable of utilizing a wide range of contextual information to resolve ambiguity and form expectations about future input. In contrast, most of the leading psycholinguistic models and fielded algorithms for natural language parsing are non-incremental, have run time superlinear in input length, and/or enforce structural locality constraints on probabilistic dependencies between events. We present a new limited-memory model of sentence comprehension which involves an adaptation of the particle filter, a sequential Monte Carlo method, to the problem of incremental parsing. We show that this model can reproduce classic results in online sentence comprehension, and that it naturally provides the first rational account of an outstanding problem in psycholinguistics, in which the preferred alternative in a syntactic ambiguity seems to grow more attractive over time even in the absence of strong disambiguating information.

Locality information is crucial in datasets where each variable corresponds to a measurement in a manifold (silhouettes, motion trajectories, 2D and 3D images). Although these datasets are typically under-sampled and high-dimensional, they often need to be represented with low-complexity statistical models, which are comprised of only the important probabilistic dependencies in the datasets. Most methods attempt to reduce model complexity by enforcing structure sparseness. However, sparseness cannot describe inherent regularities in the structure. Hence, in this paper we first propose a new class of Gaussian graphical models which, together with sparseness, imposes local constancy through ${\ell}_1$-norm penalization. Second, we propose an efficient algorithm which decomposes the strictly convex maximum likelihood estimation into a sequence of problems with closed form solutions. Through synthetic experiments, we evaluate the closeness of the recovered models to the ground truth. We also test the generalization performance of our method in a wide range of complex real-world datasets and demonstrate that it can capture useful structures such as the rotation and shrinking of a beating heart, motion correlations between body parts during walking and functional interactions of brain regions. Our method outperforms the state-of-the-art structure learning techniques for Gaussian graphical models both for small and large datasets.