There are at least two ways to interpret numerical degrees of belief in terms of betting: (1) you can offer to bet at the odds defined by the degrees of belief, or (2) you can judge that a strategy for taking advantage of such betting offers will not multiply the capital it risks by a large factor. Both interpretations can be applied to ordinary additive probabilities and used to justify updating by conditioning. Only the second can be applied to Dempster-Shafer degrees of belief and used to justify Dempster's rule of combination.

A client-server architecture to simultaneously solve multiple learning tasks from distributed datasets is described. In such architecture, each client is associated with an individual learning task and the associated dataset of examples. The goal of the architecture is to perform information fusion from multiple datasets while preserving privacy of individual data. The role of the server is to collect data in real-time from the clients and codify the information in a common database. The information coded in this database can be used by all the clients to solve their individual learning task, so that each client can exploit the informative content of all the datasets without actually having access to private data of others. The proposed algorithmic framework, based on regularization theory and kernel methods, uses a suitable class of mixed effect kernels. The new method is illustrated through a simulated music recommendation system.

The problem of learning tree-structured Gaussian graphical models from independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples is considered. The influence of the tree structure and the parameters of the Gaussian distribution on the learning rate as the number of samples increases is discussed. Specifically, the error exponent corresponding to the event that the estimated tree structure differs from the actual unknown tree structure of the distribution is analyzed. Finding the error exponent reduces to a least-squares problem in the very noisy learning regime. In this regime, it is shown that the extremal tree structure that minimizes the error exponent is the star for any fixed set of correlation coefficients on the edges of the tree. If the magnitudes of all the correlation coefficients are less than 0.63, it is also shown that the tree structure that maximizes the error exponent is the Markov chain. In other words, the star and the chain graphs represent the hardest and the easiest structures to learn in the class of tree-structured Gaussian graphical models. This result can also be intuitively explained by correlation decay: pairs of nodes which are far apart, in terms of graph distance, are unlikely to be mistaken as edges by the maximum-likelihood estimator in the asymptotic regime.

This paper addresses the problem of identifying a lower dimensional space where observed data can be sparsely represented. This under-complete dictionary learning task can be formulated as a blind separation problem of sparse sources linearly mixed with an unknown orthogonal mixing matrix. This issue is formulated in a Bayesian framework. First, the unknown sparse sources are modeled as Bernoulli-Gaussian processes. To promote sparsity, a weighted mixture of an atom at zero and a Gaussian distribution is proposed as prior distribution for the unobserved sources. A non-informative prior distribution defined on an appropriate Stiefel manifold is elected for the mixing matrix. The Bayesian inference on the unknown parameters is conducted using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. A partially collapsed Gibbs sampler is designed to generate samples asymptotically distributed according to the joint posterior distribution of the unknown model parameters and hyperparameters. These samples are then used to approximate the joint maximum a posteriori estimator of the sources and mixing matrix. Simulations conducted on synthetic data are reported to illustrate the performance of the method for recovering sparse representations. An application to sparse coding on under-complete dictionary is finally investigated.

A fundamental objective in reinforcement learning is the maintenance of a proper balance between exploration and exploitation. This problem becomes more challenging when the agent can only partially observe the states of its environment. In this paper we propose a dual-policy method for jointly learning the agent behavior and the balance between exploration exploitation, in partially observable environments. The method subsumes traditional exploration, in which the agent takes actions to gather information about the environment, and active learning, in which the agent queries an oracle for optimal actions (with an associated cost for employing the oracle). The form of the employed exploration is dictated by the specific problem. Theoretical guarantees are provided concerning the optimality of the balancing of exploration and exploitation. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by experimental results on benchmark problems.

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to relating multiple time series via a set of latent, dynamical behaviors. Using a beta process prior, we allow data-driven selection of the size of this set, as well as the pattern with which behaviors are shared among time series. Via the Indian buffet process representation of the beta process predictive distributions, we develop an exact Markov chain Monte Carlo inference method. In particular, our approach uses the sum-product algorithm to efficiently compute Metropolis-Hastings acceptance probabilities, and explores new dynamical behaviors via birth/death proposals. We validate our sampling algorithm using several synthetic datasets, and also demonstrate promising unsupervised segmentation of visual motion capture data.

Non-parametric Bayesian techniques are considered for learning dictionaries for sparse image representations, with applications in denoising, inpainting and compressive sensing (CS). The beta process is employed as a prior for learning the dictionary, and this non-parametric method naturally infers an appropriate dictionary size. The Dirichlet process and a probit stick-breaking process are also considered to exploit structure within an image. The proposed method can learn a sparse dictionary in situ; training images may be exploited if available, but they are not required. Further, the noise variance need not be known, and can be non-stationary. Another virtue of the proposed method is that sequential inference can be readily employed, thereby allowing scaling to large images. Several example results are presented, using both Gibbs and variational Bayesian inference, with comparisons to other state-of-the-art approaches.

Continuously-Adaptive Discretization for Message-Passing (CAD-MP) is a new message-passing algorithm employing adaptive discretization. Most previous message-passing algorithms approximated arbitrary continuous probability distributions using either: a family of continuous distributions such as the exponential family; a particle-set of discrete samples; or a fixed, uniform discretization. In contrast, CAD-MP uses a discretization that is (i) non-uniform, and (ii) adaptive. The non-uniformity allows CAD-MP to localize interesting features (such as sharp peaks) in the marginal belief distributions with time complexity that scales logarithmically with precision, as opposed to uniform discretization which scales at best linearly. We give a principled method for altering the non-uniform discretization according to information-based measures. CAD-MP is shown in experiments on simulated data to estimate marginal beliefs much more precisely than competing approaches for the same computational expense.

We propose a novel bound on single-variable marginal probability distributions in factor graphs with discrete variables. The bound is obtained by propagating local bounds (convex sets of probability distributions) over a subtree of the factor graph, rooted in the variable of interest. By construction, the method not only bounds the exact marginal probability distribution of a variable, but also its approximate Belief Propagation marginal ("belief"). Thus, apart from providing a practical means to calculate bounds on marginals, our contribution also lies in providing a better understanding of the error made by Belief Propagation. We show that our bound outperforms the state-of-the-art on some inference problems arising in medical diagnosis.

Nonparametric Bayesian models provide a framework for flexible probabilistic modelling of complex datasets. Unfortunately, Bayesian inference methods often require high-dimensional averages and can be slow to compute, especially with the potentially unbounded representations associated with nonparametric models. We address the challenge of scaling nonparametric Bayesian inference to the increasingly large datasets found in real-world applications, focusing on the case of parallelising inference in the Indian Buffet Process (IBP). Our approach divides a large data set between multiple processors. The processors use message passing to compute likelihoods in an asynchronous, distributed fashion and to propagate statistics about the global Bayesian posterior. This novel MCMC sampler is the first parallel inference scheme for IBP-based models, scaling to datasets orders of magnitude larger than had previously been possible.