In the last two decades, a number of methods have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy time series. Most of the fuzzy time series methods are presented for forecasting of car road accidents. However, the forecasting accuracy rates of the existing methods are not good enough. In this paper, we compared our proposed new method of fuzzy time series forecasting with existing methods. Our method is based on means based partitioning of the historical data of car road accidents. The proposed method belongs to the kth order and time-variant methods. The proposed method can get the best forecasting accuracy rate for forecasting the car road accidents than the existing methods.

In this paper the author presents a kind of Soft Computing Technique, mainly an application of fuzzy set theory of Prof. Zadeh [16], on a problem of Medical Experts Systems. The choosen problem is on design of a physician's decision model which can take crisp as well as fuzzy data as input, unlike the traditional models. The author presents a mathematical model based on fuzzy set theory for physician aided evaluation of a complete representation of information emanating from the initial interview including patient past history, present symptoms, and signs observed upon physical examination and results of clinical and diagnostic tests.

We compute exact values respectively bounds of "distances" - in the sense of (transforms of) power divergences and relative entropy - between two discrete-time Galton-Watson branching processes with immigration GWI for which the offspring as well as the immigration is arbitrarily Poisson-distributed (leading to arbitrary type of criticality). Implications for asymptotic distinguishability behaviour in terms of contiguity and entire separation of the involved GWI are given, too. Furthermore, we determine the corresponding limit quantities for the context in which the two GWI converge to Feller-type branching diffusion processes, as the time-lags between observations tend to zero. Some applications to (static random environment like) Bayesian decision making and Neyman-Pearson testing are presented as well.

In research on blog data, comments are often ignored, What makes a blog post noteworthy? One measure of the and it is easy to see why: comments are very noisy, full popularity or breadth of interest of a blog post is the extent of nonstandard grammar and spelling, usually unedited, often to which readers of the blog are inspired to leave comments cryptic and uninformative, at least to those outside the on the post. In this paper, we study the relationship between blog's community. A few studies have focused on information the text contents of a blog post and the volume of response in comments. Mishe and Glance (2006) showed the it will receive from blog readers. Modeling this relationship value of comments in characterizing the social repercussions has the potential to reveal the interests of a blog's readership of a post, including popularity and controversy. Their largescale community to its authors, readers, advertisers, and scientists user study correlated popularity and comment activity.

We develop a novel advanced Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that is capable of sampling from the posterior distribution of non-linear state space models for both the unobserved latent states and the unknown model parameters. We apply this novel methodology to five population growth models, including models with strong and weak Allee effects, and test if it can efficiently sample from the complex likelihood surface that is often associated with these models. Utilising real and also synthetically generated data sets we examine the extent to which observation noise and process error may frustrate efforts to choose between these models. Our novel algorithm involves an Adaptive Metropolis proposal combined with an SIR Particle MCMC algorithm (AdPMCMC). We show that the AdPMCMC algorithm samples complex, high-dimensional spaces efficiently, and is therefore superior to standard Gibbs or Metropolis Hastings algorithms that are known to converge very slowly when applied to the non-linear state space ecological models considered in this paper. Additionally, we show how the AdPMCMC algorithm can be used to recursively estimate the Bayesian Cram\'er-Rao Lower Bound of Tichavsk\'y (1998). We derive expressions for these Cram\'er-Rao Bounds and estimate them for the models considered. Our results demonstrate a number of important features of common population growth models, most notably their multi-modal posterior surfaces and dependence between the static and dynamic parameters. We conclude by sampling from the posterior distribution of each of the models, and use Bayes factors to highlight how observation noise significantly diminishes our ability to select among some of the models, particularly those that are designed to reproduce an Allee effect.

We present a novel algorithm and a new understanding of reasoning about a sequence of deterministic actions with a probabilistic prior. When the initial state of a dynamic system is unknown, a probability distribution can be still specified over the initial states. Estimating the posterior distribution over states filtering after some deterministic actions occurred is a problem relevant to AI planning, natural language processing (NLP), and robotics among others. Current approaches to filtering deterministic actions are not tractable even if the distribution over the initial system state is represented compactly. The reason is that state variables become correlated after a few steps. The main innovation in this paper is a method for sidestepping this problem by redefining state variables dynamically at each time step such that the posterior for time t is represented in a factored form. This update is done using a progression algorithm as a subroutine, and our algorithm's tractability follows when that subroutine is tractable. Our results are for general deterministic actions and in particular, our algorithm is tractable for one-to-one and STRIPS actions. We apply our reasoning algorithm about deterministic actions to reasoning about sequences of probabilistic actions and improve the efficiency of the current probabilistic reasoning approaches. We demonstrate the efficiency of the new algorithm empirically over AI-Planning data sets.

We propose a new family of probabilistic description logics (DLs) that, in contrast to most existing approaches, are derived in a principled way from Halpern's probabilistic first-order logic. The resulting probabilistic DLs have a two-dimensional semantics similar to certain popular combinations of DLs with temporal logic and are well-suited for capturing subjective probabilities. Our main contribution is a detailed study of the complexity of reasoning in the new family of probabilistic DLs, showing that it ranges from PTime for weak variants based on the lightweight DL EL to undecidable for some expressive variants based on the DL ALC.

It seems to be a common view that in order to interpret probabilistic first-order sentences, either a statistical approach that counts (tuples of) individuals has to be used, or the knowledge base has to be grounded to make a possible worlds semantics applicable, for a subjective interpretation of probabilities. In this paper, we propose novel semantical perspectives on first-order (or relational) probabilistic conditionals that are motivated by considering them as subjective, but population-based statements. We propose two different semantics for relational probabilistic conditionals, and a set of postulates for suitable inference operators in this framework. Finally, we present two inference operators by applying the maximum entropy principle to the respective model theories. Both operators are shown to yield reasonable inferences according to the postulates.

The satisfiability problem for monadic infinite-valued Gödel logic is known to be undecidable. We identify a fragment of this logic extended with strong negation whose satisfiability is not only decidable but it is decidable within classical logic. We use this fragment to formalize the rules of CADIAG-2, a well performing fuzzy expert system assisting in the differential diagnosis in internal medicine. A (classical) satisfiability check of the resulting formulas allowed the detection of some errors in the rules of the system.

This paper proves that validity and satisfiability of assertions in the Fuzzy Description Logic based on infinite-valued Product Logic with universal and existential quantifiers (which are non-interdefinable) is decidable when we only consider quasi-witnessed interpretations. We prove that this restriction is neither necessary for the validity problem (i.e., the validity of assertions in the Fuzzy Description Logic based on infinite-valued Product Logic is decidable) nor for the positive satisfiability problem, because quasi-witnessed interpretations are particularly adequate for the infinite-valued Product Logic. We give an algorithm that reduces the problem of validity (and satisfiability) of assertions in our Fuzzy Description Logic (restricted to quasi-witnessed interpretations) to a semantic consequence problem, with finite number of hypothesis, on infinite-valued propositional Product Logic.